Golden State Warriors at Oklahoma City Thunder: Model Line and Edge

Thu, Apr 8, 9:30 PM ETPaycom Center · at Thunder · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Warriors and Thunder
GS	This season	OKC
4-3	Record	4-2
5-2	ATS	3-3
4-3	O/U	1-5

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects OKC 115–111 · win probability OKC 62%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 225.8

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: GS has more of the edges

GS 4, OKC 2 · 2026-27 so far

GSBig

Three-pointers

GS hits 40.0% and allows 35.2%; OKC hits 30.9% and allows 35.3%. Threes are 47.1% and 35.8% of their shots

GSBig

Recent form

Last 5: GS 5-0 ATS, margin +9.0; OKC 2-3 ATS, margin -3.0

OKCSmall

GS offense vs OKC defense

Offense 9th of 30 against a defense 2nd, on the model’s ratings

OKCSmall

Home court

OKC at home. This season: OKC 3-0 at home, GS 2-2 away

GSSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: GS 28.8, OKC 21.8. Allowed: GS 27.3, OKC 23.4

GSSmall

OKC offense vs GS defense

Offense 18th of 30 against a defense 14th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: GS 16.7%, OKC 14.5%. Forced: GS 17.6%, OKC 15.8%

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: GS 33.2%, OKC 28.5%. Defensive: GS 70.4%, OKC 71.4%

Context

Schedule so far

GS has played the 6th-hardest schedule, OKC the 5th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Context

Tempo

About 101 possessions: GS plays 101.4 a game (25th fastest), OKC 101.1 (27th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: GS 55.3 and allows 56.0; OKC 49.5 and allows 51.0

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: GS 100%, OKC 100%. Transfers in: GS 0, OKC 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
GS WWWWW	5-2	71%	3-1	—
OKC WLWLL	3-3	50%	2-1	—

Venue/role: GS away; OKC home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
GS OOOUO	4-3	57%	4-3
OKC UUOUU	1-5	17%	4-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
GSlast 7	4-3 57%	5-2 71%	4-3 57%
OKClast 6	4-2 67%	3-3 50%	1-5 17%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Warriors

Date	Game	Last meeting
Apr 9	@ OKC	L97–104WU
Apr 11	vs UTAH	L116–119LO

Thunder

Date	Game	Last meeting
Apr 9	vs GS	W104–97LU
Apr 11	@ DEN	W96–84WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 18 since 2021-22

GS 9–9 OKCSeries tied · 18 games since 2021-22 · OKC has won the last 4 meetings · GS 9-8-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 7, 2025-26	GS 97 @ OKC 104	OKC -11.5	GS W
Jan 2, 2025-26	OKC 131 @ GS 94	GS +13.5	OKC W
Dec 2, 2025-26	OKC 124 @ GS 112	GS +11.5	OKC W
Nov 11, 2025-26	GS 102 @ OKC 126	OKC -7.5	OKC W
Jan 29, 2024-25	OKC 109 @ GS 116	GS +9.5	GS W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Warriors

7 games played

Straight up

4-3

57% wins

Against the spread

5-2

71% covers · avg +6.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-3

57% overs · avg +2.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-357%

L L L W W W W

4 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

5-271%

L L W W W W W

5 straight covers4 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

4-357%

U U O O O U O

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@LAL	L 105-127	+6.5	L −15.5	233.5	U 232
Oct 23	vsMEM	L 108-111	-4.5	L −7.5	236.5	U 219
Oct 24	@PHX	L 122-131	+9.5	W +0.5	221.5	O 253
Oct 26	@DEN	W 134-114	+6.5	W +26.5	236.5	O 248
Oct 28	@MIN	W 119-114	+3.5	W +8.5	227.5	O 233
Oct 30	vsLAL	W 112-95	+2.5	W +19.5	234.5	U 207
Nov 1	vsLAC	W 124-112	-1.5	W +10.5	220.5	O 236

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

LAL

L 105-127

−15.5

MEM

L 108-111

−7.5

PHX

L 122-131

+0.5

DEN

W 134-114

+26.5

MIN

W 119-114

+8.5

LAL

W 112-95

+19.5

LAC

W 124-112

+10.5

covered 5didn’t cover 2avg +6.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

LAL

L 105-127

−1.5

MEM

L 108-111

−17.5

PHX

L 122-131

+31.5

DEN

W 134-114

+11.5

MIN

W 119-114

+5.5

LAL

W 112-95

−27.5

LAC

W 124-112

+15.5

over 4under 3avg +2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Thunder

6 games played

Straight up

4-2

67% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg −6.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-5

17% overs · avg −12.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-267%

W W W W L L

2 straight losses2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

W W L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

1-517%

U U U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 20	@SA	W 116-104	-1.5	W +10.5	229.5	U 220
Oct 22	vsDEN	W 96-84	-7.5	W +4.5	236.5	U 180
Oct 25	vsLAC	W 108-101	-16.5	L −9.5	223.5	U 209
Oct 26	vsPHX	W 125-114	-8.5	W +2.5	221.5	O 239
Oct 28	@DAL	L 96-120	-4.5	L −28.5	227.5	U 216
Oct 31	@HOU	L 98-119	+2.5	L −18.5	219.5	U 217

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 116-104

+10.5

DEN

W 96-84

+4.5

LAC

W 108-101

−9.5

PHX

W 125-114

+2.5

DAL

L 96-120

−28.5

HOU

L 98-119

−18.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg −6.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 116-104

−9.5

DEN

W 96-84

−56.5

LAC

W 108-101

−14.5

PHX

W 125-114

+17.5

DAL

L 96-120

−11.5

HOU

L 98-119

−2.5

over 1under 5avg −12.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Thunder has the better starters

Position by position: Warriors 1, Thunder 3, even 1

WarriorsBetterThunder

G B. Podziemski16.4 pts · 5.4 reb · 5.6 ast Score 72

OKCSmall

G S. Gilgeous-Alexander26 pts · 4.5 reb · 3.3 ast Score 88

G D. Melton11.9 pts · 4.1 reb · 2.3 ast Score 62

OKCBig

G A. Mitchell16.5 pts · 3.3 reb · 3.8 ast Score 99

G B. Williams11.6 pts · 2.9 reb · 2.4 ast Score 5

Even

G J. McCain10.8 pts · 2.3 reb · 2.2 ast Score 8

F Y. Lendeborg22.3 pts · 7.3 reb · 3.7 ast Score 78

GSBig

G K. Williams5 pts · 3.5 reb · 0.7 ast Score 40

F G. Niang6.4 pts · 2.9 reb · 1.3 ast Score 72

OKCSmall

C I. Hartenstein9.5 pts · 9.2 reb · 2 ast Score 88

WarriorsBetterThunder

GS offense9th of 30 · +1.9

OKCSmall

OKC defense2nd of 30 · +6.2

GS defense14th of 30 · +0.3

Even

OKC offense18th of 30 · -1.1

Backcourt+5.3 · 3 players

OKCBig

Backcourt+24.2 · 4 players

Frontcourt+12.0 · 2 players

Even

Frontcourt+12.0 · 1 player

Bench+5.4 · 5 players

GSBig

Bench-4.1 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestGS betterOKC betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Warriors

Guards

B. Podziemski34 minD. Melton22 minB. Williams17 minW. Richard16 minL. Cryer16 minG. Payton13 min

Forwards

Y. Lendeborg32 minG. Niang20 minG. Ike12 minM. Leons11 min

Centers

A. Horford19 minC. Bassey9 min

Out

S. CurryDay-To-DayG. SantosOutD. GreenDay-To-Day

Thunder

Guards

S. Gilgeous-Alexander33 minA. Mitchell26 minJ. McCain25 minK. Williams14 minJ. Dix18 minB. Stirtz16 min

Forwards

J. Williams18 minB. Barnhizer9 min

Centers

I. Hartenstein24 minA. Mara18 min

Out

A. CarusoOutC. HolmgrenOutJ. WilliamsOutC. WallaceOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

GS117.7 #11

OKC106.5 #29

Points per possession

GS1.17 #3

OKC1.05 #23

Pace (possessions)

GS101.4 #25

OKC101.1 #27

Shooting

Effective FG%

GS55.3 #8

OKC49.5 #28

3-point %

GS40.0 #2

OKC30.9 #26

3-point attempt rate

GS47.1 #5

OKC35.8 #29

Free throw rate

GS28.8 #15

OKC21.8 #28

Possessions

Turnover rate

GS16.7 #22

OKC14.5 #7

Offensive rebound rate

GS33.2 #1

OKC28.5 #10

Assists per game

GS27.4 #10

OKC21.7 #29

Defense

Points allowed

GS114.9 #16

OKC107.0 #5

Points allowed per possession

GS1.13 #21

OKC1.06 #7

Opponent effective FG%

GS56.0 #25

OKC51.0 #6

Opponent 3-point %

GS35.2 #16

OKC35.3 #17

Turnovers forced

GS17.6 #5

OKC15.8 #13

Defensive rebound rate

GS70.4 #23

OKC71.4 #18

Steals per game

GS9.1 #11

OKC8.3 #20

Blocks per game

GS4.1 #24

OKC6.3 #7

GS		OKC
Scoring
117.7 #11	Points per game	106.5 #29
1.17 #3	Points per possession	1.05 #23
101.4 #25	Pace (possessions)	101.1 #27
Shooting
55.3 #8	Effective FG%	49.5 #28
40.0 #2	3-point %	30.9 #26
47.1 #5	3-point attempt rate	35.8 #29
28.8 #15	Free throw rate	21.8 #28
Possessions
16.7 #22	Turnover rate	14.5 #7
33.2 #1	Offensive rebound rate	28.5 #10
27.4 #10	Assists per game	21.7 #29
Defense
114.9 #16	Points allowed	107.0 #5
1.13 #21	Points allowed per possession	1.06 #7
56.0 #25	Opponent effective FG%	51.0 #6
35.2 #16	Opponent 3-point %	35.3 #17
17.6 #5	Turnovers forced	15.8 #13
70.4 #23	Defensive rebound rate	71.4 #18
9.1 #11	Steals per game	8.3 #20
4.1 #24	Blocks per game	6.3 #7

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Warriors

4-3 overall · 4-3 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Clippers124–112
Wvs Lakers112–95
W@ Timberwolves119–114
W@ Nuggets134–114
L@ Suns122–131

A week or more of rest.

Thunder

4-2 overall · 4-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Rockets98–119
L@ Mavericks96–120
Wvs Suns125–114
Wvs Clippers108–101
Wvs Nuggets96–84

A week or more of rest.

Warriors @ Thunder

What could decide it: GS has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Warriors

Thunder

Thunder has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Warriors

Thunder