New York Knicks at Brooklyn Nets: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Apr 2, 7:30 PM ETBarclays Center · at Nets · Conference game

#27BKNNets

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Knicks and Nets
NY	This season	BKN
2-4	Record	1-5
1-5	ATS	3-3
1-5	O/U	3-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects NY 115–103 · win probability NY 80%

Pick this game

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 217.9

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: NY has more of the edges

NY 3, BKN 2 · 2026-27 so far

NYBig

BKN offense vs NY defense

Offense 29th of 30 against a defense 3rd, on the model’s ratings

NYBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: NY 30.3%, BKN 25.4%. Defensive: NY 78.7%, BKN 77.8%

Context

Tempo

About 103 possessions: NY plays 101.0 a game (28th fastest), BKN 105.1 (10th). Faster games mean more points

Context

Schedule so far

NY has played the 13th-hardest schedule, BKN the 19th. A record against a soft schedule means less

BKNSmall

Recent form

Last 5: NY 1-4 ATS, margin +0.4; BKN 3-2 ATS, margin -8.0

BKNSmall

Home court

BKN at home. This season: BKN 0-3 at home, NY 1-2 away

NYSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: NY 49.5 and allows 53.1; BKN 50.7 and allows 55.3

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: NY 15.2%, BKN 18.2%. Forced: NY 13.2%, BKN 15.9%

Even

Three-pointers

NY hits 35.2% and allows 35.5%; BKN hits 35.1% and allows 35.8%. Threes are 43.2% and 48.0% of their shots

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: NY 24.5, BKN 32.9. Allowed: NY 25.9, BKN 33.5

Even

NY offense vs BKN defense

Offense 23rd of 30 against a defense 22nd, on the model’s ratings

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: NY 100%, BKN 100%. Transfers in: NY 0, BKN 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NY LLWLL	1-5	17%	0-3	—
BKN WLWLW	3-3	50%	0-3	—

Venue/role: NY away; BKN home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
NY UUUOU	1-5	17%	2-4
BKN OOOUU	3-3	50%	1-5

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NYlast 6	2-4 33%	1-5 17%	1-5 17%
BKNlast 6	1-5 17%	3-3 50%	3-3 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Knicks

Date	Game	Last meeting
Apr 4	vs BOS	L103–107LU
Apr 6	@ ATL	W140–89WO
Apr 8	@ MIL	W127–98WO

Nets

Date	Game	Last meeting
Apr 4	@ MIL	L108–125LO
Apr 5	@ CLE	L121–125WO
Apr 7	@ TOR	L101–136LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 20 since 2021-22

NY 14–6 BKNNY leads · 20 games since 2021-22 · NY has won the last 14 meetings · NY 11-9 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 20, 2025-26	NY 93 @ BKN 92	BKN +18.5	BKN W
Jan 21, 2025-26	BKN 66 @ NY 120	NY -12.5	NY W
Nov 24, 2025-26	NY 113 @ BKN 100	BKN +12.5	NY W
Nov 9, 2025-26	BKN 98 @ NY 134	NY -15.5	NY W
Apr 13, 2024-25	NY 113 @ BKN 105	BKN +5.5	NY W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Knicks

6 games played

Straight up

2-4

33% wins

Against the spread

1-5

17% covers · avg −3.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-5

17% overs · avg −11.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-433%

L L L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

1-517%

L L L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

1-517%

U U U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 20	vsPHI	L 100-106	-4.5	L −10.5	231.5	U 206
Oct 23	@BOS	L 103-107	+2.5	L −1.5	220.5	U 210
Oct 25	vsORL	L 102-111	-6.5	L −15.5	224.5	U 213
Oct 27	vsDET	W 111-97	-4.5	W +9.5	220.5	U 208
Oct 28	@CHI	W 133-127	-7.5	L −1.5	233.5	O 260
Oct 30	@PHI	L 93-98	+2.5	L −2.5	224.5	U 191

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

PHI

L 100-106

−10.5

BOS

L 103-107

−1.5

ORL

L 102-111

−15.5

DET

W 111-97

+9.5

CHI

W 133-127

−1.5

PHI

L 93-98

−2.5

covered 1didn’t cover 5avg −3.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

PHI

L 100-106

−25.5

BOS

L 103-107

−10.5

ORL

L 102-111

−11.5

DET

W 111-97

−12.5

CHI

W 133-127

+26.5

PHI

L 93-98

−33.5

over 1under 5avg −11.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Nets

6 games played

Straight up

1-5

17% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg −0.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg −2 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-517%

L L L L L W

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-350%

L W L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-350%

U O O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsCHA	L 103-110	+1.5	L −5.5	220.5	U 213
Oct 24	@CLE	L 121-125	+11.5	W +7.5	228.5	O 246
Oct 25	vsIND	L 109-136	+5.5	L −21.5	231.5	O 245
Oct 27	@BOS	L 124-125	+13.5	W +12.5	223.5	O 249
Oct 30	vsDET	L 94-110	+8.5	L −7.5	222.5	U 204
Nov 1	@IND	W 98-90	+3.5	W +11.5	230.5	U 188

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CHA

L 103-110

−5.5

CLE

L 121-125

+7.5

IND

L 109-136

−21.5

BOS

L 124-125

+12.5

DET

L 94-110

−7.5

IND

W 98-90

+11.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg −0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CHA

L 103-110

−7.5

CLE

L 121-125

+17.5

IND

L 109-136

+13.5

BOS

L 124-125

+25.5

DET

L 94-110

−18.5

IND

W 98-90

−42.5

over 3under 3avg −2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Knicks has the better starters

Position by position: Knicks 4, Nets 1, even 0

KnicksBetterNets

G J. Brunson25.5 pts · 2.8 reb · 5.2 ast Score 86

NYBig

G K. Ellis5 pts · 2 reb · 2.3 ast Score 21

G J. Hart8.7 pts · 7.5 reb · 3.3 ast Score 91

NYBig

G N. Traore10.5 pts · 1.8 reb · 2.7 ast Score 1

G M. Bridges6.2 pts · 2.8 reb · 2 ast Score 75

NYBig

F J. Randle20.8 pts · 7.2 reb · 5.3 ast Score 39

F O. Anunoby16.2 pts · 5.8 reb · 2.7 ast Score 73

BKNSmall

F M. Porter21.2 pts · 7.3 reb · 1.3 ast Score 91

C K. Towns21.8 pts · 13.5 reb · 3.2 ast Score 80

NYBig

C D. Sharpe8 pts · 7.7 reb · 1.7 ast Score 6

KnicksBetterNets

NY offense23rd of 30 · -1.8

Even

BKN defense22nd of 30 · -1.7

NY defense3rd of 30 · +5.2

NYBig

BKN offense29th of 30 · -5.5

Backcourt+35.0 · 3 players

NYBig

Backcourt-12.0 · 2 players

Frontcourt+17.7 · 2 players

NYBig

Frontcourt+7.8 · 3 players

Bench+5.0 · 5 players

NYBig

Bench-17.9 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestNY betterBKN betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Knicks

Guards

J. Brunson35 minJ. Hart33 minM. Bridges28 minL. Shamet24 minM. McBride19 minT. Kolek14 min

Forwards

O. Anunoby34 minD. Knecht10 minM. Diawara9 minP. Dadiet5 minT. NickelNew

Centers

K. Towns32 minJ. Wiseman15 minA. Drummond13 min

Out

J. AlvaradoOut

Nets

Guards

K. Ellis24 minN. Traore21 minT. Mann24 minD. Powell21 minB. Saraf21 min

Forwards

J. Randle34 minM. Porter32 minC. Johnson22 minN. Clowney22 minD. Wolf21 minJ. Minott11 min

Centers

D. Sharpe23 minM. Wagner19 min

Out

M. BrownDay-To-DayE. DeminOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

NY107.0 #27

BKN108.2 #25

Points per possession

NY1.05 #24

BKN1.03 #29

Pace (possessions)

NY101.0 #28

BKN105.1 #10

Shooting

Effective FG%

NY49.5 #27

BKN50.7 #26

3-point %

NY35.2 #13

BKN35.1 #15

3-point attempt rate

NY43.2 #14

BKN48.0 #3

Free throw rate

NY24.5 #23

BKN32.9 #6

Possessions

Turnover rate

NY15.2 #14

BKN18.2 #27

Offensive rebound rate

NY30.3 #6

BKN25.4 #23

Assists per game

NY26.2 #18

BKN22.8 #28

Defense

Points allowed

NY107.7 #6

BKN116.0 #21

Points allowed per possession

NY1.07 #12

BKN1.11 #18

Opponent effective FG%

NY53.1 #14

BKN55.3 #23

Opponent 3-point %

NY35.5 #18

BKN35.8 #19

Turnovers forced

NY13.2 #29

BKN15.9 #12

Defensive rebound rate

NY78.7 #1

BKN77.8 #2

Steals per game

NY7.3 #23

BKN9.0 #14

Blocks per game

NY4.0 #28

BKN4.7 #17

NY		BKN
Scoring
107.0 #27	Points per game	108.2 #25
1.05 #24	Points per possession	1.03 #29
101.0 #28	Pace (possessions)	105.1 #10
Shooting
49.5 #27	Effective FG%	50.7 #26
35.2 #13	3-point %	35.1 #15
43.2 #14	3-point attempt rate	48.0 #3
24.5 #23	Free throw rate	32.9 #6
Possessions
15.2 #14	Turnover rate	18.2 #27
30.3 #6	Offensive rebound rate	25.4 #23
26.2 #18	Assists per game	22.8 #28
Defense
107.7 #6	Points allowed	116.0 #21
1.07 #12	Points allowed per possession	1.11 #18
53.1 #14	Opponent effective FG%	55.3 #23
35.5 #18	Opponent 3-point %	35.8 #19
13.2 #29	Turnovers forced	15.9 #12
78.7 #1	Defensive rebound rate	77.8 #2
7.3 #23	Steals per game	9.0 #14
4.0 #28	Blocks per game	4.7 #17

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Knicks

2-4 overall · 2-4 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ 76ers93–98
W@ Bulls133–127
Wvs Pistons111–97
Lvs Magic102–111
L@ Celtics103–107

A week or more of rest.

Nets

1-5 overall · 1-5 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Pacers98–90
Lvs Pistons94–110
L@ Celtics124–125
Lvs Pacers109–136
L@ Cavaliers121–125

A week or more of rest.

Knicks @ Nets

What could decide it: NY has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Knicks

Nets

Knicks has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Knicks

Nets