Boston Celtics at New York Knicks: Model Line and Edge

Sun, Apr 4, 7:30 PM ETMadison Square Garden · at Knicks · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Celtics and Knicks
BOS	This season	NY
5-1	Record	2-4
3-3	ATS	1-5
2-4	O/U	1-5

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects NY 108–108 · win probability NY 51%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 216.5

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: BOS has more of the edges

BOS 5, NY 3 · 2026-27 so far

BOSBig

NY offense vs BOS defense

Offense 23rd of 30 against a defense 5th, on the model’s ratings

NYBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: BOS 28.3%, NY 30.3%. Defensive: BOS 68.4%, NY 78.7%

BOSBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: BOS 14.9%, NY 15.2%. Forced: BOS 17.8%, NY 13.2%

NYBig

BOS offense vs NY defense

Offense 15th of 30 against a defense 3rd, on the model’s ratings

BOSBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: BOS 55.0 and allows 51.3; NY 49.5 and allows 53.1

Context

Schedule so far

BOS has played the 25th-hardest schedule, NY the 13th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Context

Tempo

About 102 possessions: BOS plays 103.0 a game (16th fastest), NY 101.0 (28th). Faster games mean more points

BOSSmall

Recent form

Last 5: BOS 3-2 ATS, margin +13.0; NY 1-4 ATS, margin +0.4

BOSSmall

Three-pointers

BOS hits 35.5% and allows 33.8%; NY hits 35.2% and allows 35.5%. Threes are 45.9% and 43.2% of their shots

NYSmall

Home court

NY at home. This season: NY 1-2 at home, BOS 1-1 away

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: BOS 32.3, NY 24.5. Allowed: BOS 31.7, NY 25.9

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: BOS 100%, NY 100%. Transfers in: BOS 0, NY 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BOS WWLLW	3-3	50%	1-1	—
NY LLWLL	1-5	17%	1-2	—

Venue/role: BOS away; NY home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
BOS UUOUU	2-4	33%	5-1
NY UUUOU	1-5	17%	2-4

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BOSlast 6	5-1 83%	3-3 50%	2-4 33%
NYlast 6	2-4 33%	1-5 17%	1-5 17%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Celtics

Date	Game	Last meeting
Apr 7	@ ORL	W108–97WU
Apr 9	@ ATL	L102–112LU
Apr 11	vs MIL	W133–101WO

Knicks

Date	Game	Last meeting
Apr 6	@ ATL	W140–89WO
Apr 8	@ MIL	W127–98WO
Apr 9	vs DET	W111–97WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 28 since 2021-22

BOS 15–13 NYBOS leads · 28 games since 2021-22 · BOS 13-15 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Oct 23, 2026-27	NY 103 @ BOS 107	BOS -2.5	BOS W
Apr 9, 2025-26	BOS 106 @ NY 112	NY -3.5	NY W
Feb 8, 2025-26	NY 111 @ BOS 89	BOS -3.5	NY W
Dec 2, 2025-26	NY 117 @ BOS 123	BOS +1.5	BOS W
Oct 24, 2025-26	BOS 95 @ NY 105	NY -4.5	NY W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Celtics

6 games played

Straight up

5-1

83% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg +0.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg +1.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-183%

L W W W W W

5 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

L W W L L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-433%

O U U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 20	@DET	L 113-121	-1.5	L −9.5	220.5	O 234
Oct 23	vsNY	W 107-103	-2.5	W +1.5	220.5	U 210
Oct 26	vsCHI	W 134-99	-14.5	W +20.5	233.5	U 233
Oct 27	vsBKN	W 125-124	-13.5	L −12.5	223.5	O 249
Oct 30	vsCHI	W 125-111	-14.5	L −0.5	236.5	U 236
Nov 1	@ORL	W 108-97	-6.5	W +4.5	221.5	U 205

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

DET

L 113-121

−9.5

W 107-103

+1.5

CHI

W 134-99

+20.5

BKN

W 125-124

−12.5

CHI

W 125-111

−0.5

ORL

W 108-97

+4.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg +0.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

DET

L 113-121

+13.5

W 107-103

−10.5

CHI

W 134-99

−0.5

BKN

W 125-124

+25.5

CHI

W 125-111

−0.5

ORL

W 108-97

−16.5

over 2under 4avg +1.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Knicks

6 games played

Straight up

2-4

33% wins

Against the spread

1-5

17% covers · avg −3.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-5

17% overs · avg −11.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-433%

L L L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

1-517%

L L L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

1-517%

U U U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 20	vsPHI	L 100-106	-4.5	L −10.5	231.5	U 206
Oct 23	@BOS	L 103-107	+2.5	L −1.5	220.5	U 210
Oct 25	vsORL	L 102-111	-6.5	L −15.5	224.5	U 213
Oct 27	vsDET	W 111-97	-4.5	W +9.5	220.5	U 208
Oct 28	@CHI	W 133-127	-7.5	L −1.5	233.5	O 260
Oct 30	@PHI	L 93-98	+2.5	L −2.5	224.5	U 191

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

PHI

L 100-106

−10.5

BOS

L 103-107

−1.5

ORL

L 102-111

−15.5

DET

W 111-97

+9.5

CHI

W 133-127

−1.5

PHI

L 93-98

−2.5

covered 1didn’t cover 5avg −3.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

PHI

L 100-106

−25.5

BOS

L 103-107

−10.5

ORL

L 102-111

−11.5

DET

W 111-97

−12.5

CHI

W 133-127

+26.5

PHI

L 93-98

−33.5

over 1under 5avg −11.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Knicks has the better starters

Position by position: Celtics 0, Knicks 2, even 3

CelticsBetterKnicks

G D. White11.8 pts · 3.3 reb · 5.2 ast Score 87

Even

G J. Brunson25.5 pts · 2.8 reb · 5.2 ast Score 86

G J. Walsh4.3 pts · 3.8 reb · 1 ast Score 74

NYSmall

G J. Hart8.7 pts · 7.5 reb · 3.3 ast Score 91

F J. Tatum28.3 pts · 6 reb · 7.7 ast Score 86

Even

G M. Bridges6.2 pts · 2.8 reb · 2 ast Score 75

F P. George20.7 pts · 6 reb · 5 ast Score 66

Even

F O. Anunoby16.2 pts · 5.8 reb · 2.7 ast Score 73

C N. Queta8.8 pts · 5.3 reb · 1.2 ast Score 62

NYSmall

C K. Towns21.8 pts · 13.5 reb · 3.2 ast Score 80

CelticsBetterKnicks

BOS offense15th of 30 · +0.8

NYBig

NY defense3rd of 30 · +5.2

BOS defense5th of 30 · +4.6

BOSBig

NY offense23rd of 30 · -1.8

Backcourt+15.6 · 2 players

NYBig

Backcourt+35.0 · 3 players

Frontcourt+21.5 · 3 players

BOSBig

Frontcourt+17.7 · 2 players

Bench+32.1 · 5 players

BOSBig

Bench+5.0 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestBOS betterNY betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Celtics

Guards

D. White30 minJ. Walsh17 minP. Pritchard28 minB. Scheierman19 minM. Conley18 minH. Gonzalez12 min

Forwards

J. Tatum36 minP. George31 minS. Hauser20 minA. Williams7 minC. Cenac4 min

Centers

N. Queta21 minL. Garza11 min

Out

M. RobinsonDay-To-Day

Knicks

Guards

J. Brunson35 minJ. Hart33 minM. Bridges28 minL. Shamet24 minM. McBride19 minT. Kolek14 min

Forwards

O. Anunoby34 minD. Knecht10 minM. Diawara9 minP. Dadiet5 minT. NickelNew

Centers

K. Towns32 minJ. Wiseman15 minA. Drummond13 min

Out

J. AlvaradoOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

BOS118.7 #8

NY107.0 #27

Points per possession

BOS1.15 #6

NY1.05 #24

Pace (possessions)

BOS103.0 #16

NY101.0 #28

Shooting

Effective FG%

BOS55.0 #10

NY49.5 #27

3-point %

BOS35.5 #10

NY35.2 #13

3-point attempt rate

BOS45.9 #7

NY43.2 #14

Free throw rate

BOS32.3 #7

NY24.5 #23

Possessions

Turnover rate

BOS14.9 #11

NY15.2 #14

Offensive rebound rate

BOS28.3 #12

NY30.3 #6

Assists per game

BOS28.0 #6

NY26.2 #18

Defense

Points allowed

BOS109.2 #9

NY107.7 #6

Points allowed per possession

BOS1.06 #9

NY1.07 #12

Opponent effective FG%

BOS51.3 #7

NY53.1 #14

Opponent 3-point %

BOS33.8 #12

NY35.5 #18

Turnovers forced

BOS17.8 #3

NY13.2 #29

Defensive rebound rate

BOS68.4 #27

NY78.7 #1

Steals per game

BOS9.2 #9

NY7.3 #23

Blocks per game

BOS4.0 #25

NY4.0 #28

BOS		NY
Scoring
118.7 #8	Points per game	107.0 #27
1.15 #6	Points per possession	1.05 #24
103.0 #16	Pace (possessions)	101.0 #28
Shooting
55.0 #10	Effective FG%	49.5 #27
35.5 #10	3-point %	35.2 #13
45.9 #7	3-point attempt rate	43.2 #14
32.3 #7	Free throw rate	24.5 #23
Possessions
14.9 #11	Turnover rate	15.2 #14
28.3 #12	Offensive rebound rate	30.3 #6
28.0 #6	Assists per game	26.2 #18
Defense
109.2 #9	Points allowed	107.7 #6
1.06 #9	Points allowed per possession	1.07 #12
51.3 #7	Opponent effective FG%	53.1 #14
33.8 #12	Opponent 3-point %	35.5 #18
17.8 #3	Turnovers forced	13.2 #29
68.4 #27	Defensive rebound rate	78.7 #1
9.2 #9	Steals per game	7.3 #23
4.0 #25	Blocks per game	4.0 #28

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Celtics

5-1 overall · 5-1 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Magic108–97
Wvs Bulls125–111
Wvs Nets125–124
Wvs Bulls134–99
Wvs Knicks107–103

A week or more of rest.

Knicks

2-4 overall · 2-4 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ 76ers93–98
W@ Bulls133–127
Wvs Pistons111–97
Lvs Magic102–111
L@ Celtics103–107

A week or more of rest.

Celtics @ Knicks

What could decide it: BOS has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Celtics

Knicks

Knicks has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Celtics

Knicks