San Antonio Spurs at Los Angeles Lakers: Model Line and Edge

Sun, Apr 4, 10:00 PM ETcrypto.com Arena · at Lakers · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Spurs and Lakers
SA	This season	LAL
4-2	Record	5-2
2-4	ATS	4-3
2-4	O/U	4-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects SA 117–114 · win probability SA 59%

Pick this game

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 231.1

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it

SA 3, LAL 3 · 2026-27 so far

SABig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: SA 27.2%, LAL 26.8%. Defensive: SA 75.8%, LAL 67.4%

SABig

SA offense vs LAL defense

Offense 5th of 30 against a defense 17th, on the model’s ratings

SASmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: SA 13.1%, LAL 18.3%. Forced: SA 15.7%, LAL 17.8%

LALSmall

Three-pointers

SA hits 34.9% and allows 37.3%; LAL hits 38.9% and allows 36.7%. Threes are 39.0% and 45.7% of their shots

LALSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: SA 53.3 and allows 52.1; LAL 60.1 and allows 53.7

LALSmall

Home court

LAL at home. This season: LAL 3-1 at home, SA 2-0 away

Context

Tempo

About 104 possessions: SA plays 104.3 a game (11th fastest), LAL 102.9 (17th). Faster games mean more points

Even

LAL offense vs SA defense

Offense 4th of 30 against a defense 7th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Recent form

Last 5: SA 2-3 ATS, margin +11.0; LAL 3-2 ATS, margin +1.4

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: SA 24.5, LAL 37.2. Allowed: SA 21.7, LAL 30.7

Context

Schedule so far

SA has played the 15th-hardest schedule, LAL the 16th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: SA 100%, LAL 100%. Transfers in: SA 0, LAL 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SA LWWLL	2-4	33%	1-1	—
LAL WLWLW	4-3	57%	2-2	—

Venue/role: SA away; LAL home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
SA UUOUO	2-4	33%	4-2
LAL OOUUO	4-3	57%	5-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SAlast 6	4-2 67%	2-4 33%	2-4 33%
LALlast 7	5-2 71%	4-3 57%	4-3 57%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Spurs

Date	Game	Last meeting
Apr 6	vs SAC	W130–103WO
Apr 7	vs CLE	L101–113LU
Apr 9	vs DEN	L118–128LO

Lakers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Apr 6	vs DAL	L128–134LO
Apr 7	vs MIN	W120–106WU
Apr 9	vs MIN	W120–106WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 19 since 2021-22

SA 7–12 LALLAL leads · 19 games since 2021-22 · SA has won the last 3 meetings · SA 9-10 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Feb 10, 2025-26	SA 136 @ LAL 108	LAL +13.5	SA W
Jan 7, 2025-26	LAL 91 @ SA 107	SA -8.5	SA W
Dec 10, 2025-26	SA 132 @ LAL 119	LAL -7.5	SA W
Nov 5, 2025-26	SA 116 @ LAL 118	LAL +1.5	LAL W
Mar 17, 2024-25	SA 109 @ LAL 125	LAL -8.5	LAL W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Spurs

6 games played

Straight up

4-2

67% wins

Against the spread

2-4

33% covers · avg −3.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg −2.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-267%

L L W W W W

4 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-433%

L L W W L L

2 straight misses ATS2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-433%

U U U O U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 20	vsOKC	L 104-116	+1.5	L −10.5	229.5	U 220
Oct 23	vsHOU	L 110-114	-4.5	L −8.5	224.5	U 224
Oct 24	@DAL	W 122-106	-14.5	W +1.5	229.5	U 228
Oct 27	vsSAC	W 130-103	-19.5	W +7.5	232.5	O 233
Oct 28	@UTAH	W 117-111	-13.5	L −7.5	232.5	U 228
Oct 31	vsMIN	W 121-111	-12.5	L −2.5	230.5	O 232

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

OKC

L 104-116

−10.5

HOU

L 110-114

−8.5

DAL

W 122-106

+1.5

SAC

W 130-103

+7.5

UTAH

W 117-111

−7.5

MIN

W 121-111

−2.5

covered 2didn’t cover 4avg −3.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

OKC

L 104-116

−9.5

HOU

L 110-114

−0.5

DAL

W 122-106

−1.5

SAC

W 130-103

+0.5

UTAH

W 117-111

−4.5

MIN

W 121-111

+1.5

over 2under 4avg −2.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Lakers

7 games played

Straight up

5-2

71% wins

Against the spread

4-3

57% covers · avg +1.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-3

57% overs · avg +4.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-271%

W W W L W L W

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

4-357%

W L W L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

4-357%

U O O O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsGS	W 127-105	-6.5	W +15.5	233.5	U 232
Oct 23	vsLAC	W 125-117	-8.5	L −0.5	225.5	O 242
Oct 25	@UTAH	W 132-123	-6.5	W +2.5	237.5	O 255
Oct 27	vsPOR	L 129-136	-1.5	L −8.5	234.5	O 265
Oct 28	@LAC	W 103-87	+1.5	W +17.5	224.5	U 190
Oct 30	@GS	L 95-112	-2.5	L −19.5	234.5	U 207
Nov 1	vsTOR	W 131-125	-3.5	W +2.5	224.5	O 256

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 127-105

+15.5

LAC

W 125-117

−0.5

UTAH

W 132-123

+2.5

POR

L 129-136

−8.5

LAC

W 103-87

+17.5

L 95-112

−19.5

TOR

W 131-125

+2.5

covered 4didn’t cover 3avg +1.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 127-105

−1.5

LAC

W 125-117

+16.5

UTAH

W 132-123

+17.5

POR

L 129-136

+30.5

LAC

W 103-87

−34.5

L 95-112

−27.5

TOR

W 131-125

+31.5

over 4under 3avg +4.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Spurs has the better starters

Position by position: Spurs 3, Lakers 1, even 1

SpursBetterLakers

G D. Harper18.5 pts · 5.5 reb · 4.8 ast Score 98

SASmall

G A. Reaves23.1 pts · 3.4 reb · 5.1 ast Score 82

G D. Vassell12 pts · 4.2 reb · 3.5 ast Score 53

LALSmall

G L. Doncic37.7 pts · 8.2 reb · 7.3 ast Score 79

G D. Fox16.5 pts · 4.8 reb · 7 ast Score 84

SASmall

G M. Thybulle9 pts · 1.9 reb · 1.1 ast Score 50

G S. Castle14.5 pts · 5.8 reb · 5.2 ast Score 69

Even

F J. LaRavia5.8 pts · 3.5 reb · 1.3 ast Score 70

F V. Wembanyama28 pts · 10.7 reb · 3 ast Score 98

SABig

C W. Kessler14.3 pts · 9.9 reb · 1.1 ast Score 42

SpursBetterLakers

SA offense5th of 30 · +2.9

SABig

LAL defense17th of 30 · -0.2

SA defense7th of 30 · +3.7

Even

LAL offense4th of 30 · +3.2

Backcourt+42.2 · 4 players

SABig

Backcourt+24.2 · 3 players

Frontcourt+17.3 · 1 player

SABig

Frontcourt+7.4 · 2 players

Bench+19.9 · 5 players

SABig

Bench+6.7 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestSA betterLAL betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Spurs

Guards

D. Harper34 minD. Vassell33 minD. Fox32 minS. Castle29 minJ. McLaughlin6 minJ. Gillespie2 min

Forwards

V. Wembanyama33 minJ. Champagnie28 minK. Johnson22 minC. Bryant9 minH. Barnes8 minD. Jones Garcia6 min

Centers

L. Kornet15 minT. Reed4 min

Lakers

Guards

A. Reaves36 minL. Doncic36 minM. Thybulle25 minQ. Grimes27 minC. Sexton18 minJ. Hardy16 min

Forwards

J. LaRavia23 minS. Mamukelashvili24 minJ. Vanderbilt15 minK. Looney8 minA. KalumaNewA. OkerekeNew

Centers

W. Kessler31 min

Out

Z. WilliamsOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

SA117.3 #12

LAL120.3 #5

Points per possession

SA1.12 #10

LAL1.18 #2

Pace (possessions)

SA104.3 #11

LAL102.9 #17

Shooting

Effective FG%

SA53.3 #16

LAL60.1 #1

3-point %

SA34.9 #17

LAL38.9 #4

3-point attempt rate

SA39.0 #24

LAL45.7 #9

Free throw rate

SA24.5 #24

LAL37.2 #2

Possessions

Turnover rate

SA13.1 #2

LAL18.3 #28

Offensive rebound rate

SA27.2 #16

LAL26.8 #19

Assists per game

SA27.5 #9

LAL23.4 #27

Defense

Points allowed

SA110.2 #12

LAL115.0 #17

Points allowed per possession

SA1.06 #6

LAL1.11 #19

Opponent effective FG%

SA52.1 #11

LAL53.7 #17

Opponent 3-point %

SA37.3 #23

LAL36.7 #22

Turnovers forced

SA15.7 #14

LAL17.8 #4

Defensive rebound rate

SA75.8 #7

LAL67.4 #29

Steals per game

SA9.2 #10

LAL10.4 #4

Blocks per game

SA7.0 #1

LAL6.7 #3

SA		LAL
Scoring
117.3 #12	Points per game	120.3 #5
1.12 #10	Points per possession	1.18 #2
104.3 #11	Pace (possessions)	102.9 #17
Shooting
53.3 #16	Effective FG%	60.1 #1
34.9 #17	3-point %	38.9 #4
39.0 #24	3-point attempt rate	45.7 #9
24.5 #24	Free throw rate	37.2 #2
Possessions
13.1 #2	Turnover rate	18.3 #28
27.2 #16	Offensive rebound rate	26.8 #19
27.5 #9	Assists per game	23.4 #27
Defense
110.2 #12	Points allowed	115.0 #17
1.06 #6	Points allowed per possession	1.11 #19
52.1 #11	Opponent effective FG%	53.7 #17
37.3 #23	Opponent 3-point %	36.7 #22
15.7 #14	Turnovers forced	17.8 #4
75.8 #7	Defensive rebound rate	67.4 #29
9.2 #10	Steals per game	10.4 #4
7.0 #1	Blocks per game	6.7 #3

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Spurs

4-2 overall · 4-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Timberwolves121–111
W@ Jazz117–111
Wvs Kings130–103
W@ Mavericks122–106
Lvs Rockets110–114

A week or more of rest.

Lakers

5-2 overall · 4-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Raptors131–125
L@ Warriors95–112
W@ Clippers103–87
Lvs Trail Blazers129–136
W@ Jazz132–123

A week or more of rest.

Spurs @ Lakers

What could decide it

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Spurs

Lakers

Spurs has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Spurs

Lakers