New York Knicks at Orlando Magic: Model Line and Edge

Sun, Mar 28, 12:30 PM ETKia Center · at Magic · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Knicks and Magic
NY	This season	ORL
2-4	Record	2-4
1-5	ATS	2-4
1-5	O/U	3-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects NY 112–108 · win probability NY 61%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 220.5

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: ORL has more of the edges

NY 2, ORL 3 · 2026-27 so far

NYBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: NY 30.3%, ORL 23.4%. Defensive: NY 78.7%, ORL 68.9%

NYBig

ORL offense vs NY defense

Offense 21st of 30 against a defense 3rd, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

NY has played the 13th-hardest schedule, ORL the 1st. A record against a soft schedule means less

ORLSmall

NY offense vs ORL defense

Offense 23rd of 30 against a defense 15th, on the model’s ratings

ORLSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: NY 49.5 and allows 53.1; ORL 53.4 and allows 53.0

ORLSmall

Home court

ORL at home. This season: ORL 0-3 at home, NY 1-2 away

Even

Three-pointers

NY hits 35.2% and allows 35.5%; ORL hits 35.4% and allows 34.6%. Threes are 43.2% and 46.5% of their shots

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: NY 15.2%, ORL 17.0%. Forced: NY 13.2%, ORL 13.6%

Context

Tempo

About 101 possessions: NY plays 101.0 a game (28th fastest), ORL 101.9 (22nd). Faster games mean more points

Even

Recent form

Last 5: NY 1-4 ATS, margin +0.4; ORL 2-3 ATS, margin -9.4

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: NY 24.5, ORL 31.7. Allowed: NY 25.9, ORL 29.8

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: NY 100%, ORL 100%. Transfers in: NY 0, ORL 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NY LLWLL	1-5	17%	0-3	—
ORL LWLWL	2-4	33%	0-3	—

Venue/role: NY away; ORL home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
NY UUUOU	1-5	17%	2-4
ORL UUOOU	3-3	50%	2-4

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NYlast 6	2-4 33%	1-5 17%	1-5 17%
ORLlast 6	2-4 33%	2-4 33%	3-3 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Knicks

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 30	@ ORL	L102–111LU
Apr 1	vs CHA	L96–110WU
Apr 2	@ BKN	W93–92LU

Magic

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 30	vs NY	W111–102WU
Apr 1	@ IND	L126–128LO
Apr 3	vs WSH	W136–131LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 20 since 2021-22

NY 10–10 ORLSeries tied · 20 games since 2021-22 · NY 10-10 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Oct 25, 2026-27	ORL 111 @ NY 102	NY -6.5	ORL W
Dec 13, 2025-26	NY 132 @ ORL 120	ORL +3.5	NY W
Dec 7, 2025-26	ORL 100 @ NY 106	NY -1.5	NY W
Nov 22, 2025-26	NY 121 @ ORL 133	ORL -1.5	ORL W
Nov 12, 2025-26	ORL 124 @ NY 107	NY -3.5	ORL W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Knicks

6 games played

Straight up

2-4

33% wins

Against the spread

1-5

17% covers · avg −3.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-5

17% overs · avg −11.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-433%

L L L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

1-517%

L L L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

1-517%

U U U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 20	vsPHI	L 100-106	-4.5	L −10.5	231.5	U 206
Oct 23	@BOS	L 103-107	+2.5	L −1.5	220.5	U 210
Oct 25	vsORL	L 102-111	-6.5	L −15.5	224.5	U 213
Oct 27	vsDET	W 111-97	-4.5	W +9.5	220.5	U 208
Oct 28	@CHI	W 133-127	-7.5	L −1.5	233.5	O 260
Oct 30	@PHI	L 93-98	+2.5	L −2.5	224.5	U 191

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

PHI

L 100-106

−10.5

BOS

L 103-107

−1.5

ORL

L 102-111

−15.5

DET

W 111-97

+9.5

CHI

W 133-127

−1.5

PHI

L 93-98

−2.5

covered 1didn’t cover 5avg −3.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

PHI

L 100-106

−25.5

BOS

L 103-107

−10.5

ORL

L 102-111

−11.5

DET

W 111-97

−12.5

CHI

W 133-127

+26.5

PHI

L 93-98

−33.5

over 1under 5avg −11.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Magic

6 games played

Straight up

2-4

33% wins

Against the spread

2-4

33% covers · avg −5.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg −3.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-433%

L L W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

2-433%

L L W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-350%

O U U O O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsATL	L 125-132	-2.5	L −9.5	233.5	O 257
Oct 23	vsMIN	L 93-115	-1.5	L −23.5	234.5	U 208
Oct 25	@NY	W 111-102	+6.5	W +15.5	224.5	U 213
Oct 28	@TOR	L 99-129	+5.5	L −24.5	224.5	O 228
Oct 30	@TOR	W 121-114	+5.5	W +12.5	226.5	O 235
Nov 1	vsBOS	L 97-108	+6.5	L −4.5	221.5	U 205

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

ATL

L 125-132

−9.5

MIN

L 93-115

−23.5

W 111-102

+15.5

TOR

L 99-129

−24.5

TOR

W 121-114

+12.5

BOS

L 97-108

−4.5

covered 2didn’t cover 4avg −5.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

ATL

L 125-132

+23.5

MIN

L 93-115

−26.5

W 111-102

−11.5

TOR

L 99-129

+3.5

TOR

W 121-114

+8.5

BOS

L 97-108

−16.5

over 3under 3avg −3.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Knicks has the better starters

Position by position: Knicks 4, Magic 1, even 0

KnicksBetterMagic

G J. Brunson25.5 pts · 2.8 reb · 5.2 ast Score 86

NYSmall

G D. Bane17.5 pts · 3.7 reb · 2.5 ast Score 62

G J. Hart8.7 pts · 7.5 reb · 3.3 ast Score 91

NYBig

G J. Richardson5.3 pts · 2 reb · 2 ast Score 3

G M. Bridges6.2 pts · 2.8 reb · 2 ast Score 75

ORLSmall

F F. Wagner19.7 pts · 6.7 reb · 7.8 ast Score 90

F O. Anunoby16.2 pts · 5.8 reb · 2.7 ast Score 73

NYBig

F T. da Silva14.8 pts · 3.3 reb · 1.5 ast Score 35

C K. Towns21.8 pts · 13.5 reb · 3.2 ast Score 80

NYBig

C W. Carter13.5 pts · 8.8 reb · 1.2 ast Score 28

KnicksBetterMagic

NY offense23rd of 30 · -1.8

ORLSmall

ORL defense15th of 30 · -0.1

NY defense3rd of 30 · +5.2

NYBig

ORL offense21st of 30 · -1.5

Backcourt+35.0 · 3 players

NYBig

Backcourt-2.5 · 2 players

Frontcourt+17.7 · 2 players

NYBig

Frontcourt+14.7 · 3 players

Bench+5.0 · 5 players

NYBig

Bench-1.8 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestNY betterORL betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Knicks

Guards

J. Brunson35 minJ. Hart33 minM. Bridges28 minL. Shamet24 minM. McBride19 minT. Kolek14 min

Forwards

O. Anunoby34 minD. Knecht10 minM. Diawara9 minP. Dadiet5 minT. NickelNew

Centers

K. Towns32 minJ. Wiseman15 minA. Drummond13 min

Out

J. AlvaradoOut

Magic

Guards

D. Bane35 minJ. Richardson20 minJ. Carter18 minA. Morales6 min

Forwards

F. Wagner35 minT. da Silva29 minJ. Cain15 min

Centers

W. Carter32 minG. Bitadze9 minN. Vucevic9 minC. Castleton5 min

Out

J. SuggsOutP. BancheroOutA. BlackOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

NY107.0 #27

ORL107.7 #26

Points per possession

NY1.05 #24

ORL1.07 #21

Pace (possessions)

NY101.0 #28

ORL101.9 #22

Shooting

Effective FG%

NY49.5 #27

ORL53.4 #15

3-point %

NY35.2 #13

ORL35.4 #11

3-point attempt rate

NY43.2 #14

ORL46.5 #6

Free throw rate

NY24.5 #23

ORL31.7 #9

Possessions

Turnover rate

NY15.2 #14

ORL17.0 #24

Offensive rebound rate

NY30.3 #6

ORL23.4 #26

Assists per game

NY26.2 #18

ORL26.3 #16

Defense

Points allowed

NY107.7 #6

ORL116.7 #22

Points allowed per possession

NY1.07 #12

ORL1.13 #24

Opponent effective FG%

NY53.1 #14

ORL53.0 #13

Opponent 3-point %

NY35.5 #18

ORL34.6 #13

Turnovers forced

NY13.2 #29

ORL13.6 #26

Defensive rebound rate

NY78.7 #1

ORL68.9 #26

Steals per game

NY7.3 #23

ORL7.0 #26

Blocks per game

NY4.0 #28

ORL4.2 #23

NY		ORL
Scoring
107.0 #27	Points per game	107.7 #26
1.05 #24	Points per possession	1.07 #21
101.0 #28	Pace (possessions)	101.9 #22
Shooting
49.5 #27	Effective FG%	53.4 #15
35.2 #13	3-point %	35.4 #11
43.2 #14	3-point attempt rate	46.5 #6
24.5 #23	Free throw rate	31.7 #9
Possessions
15.2 #14	Turnover rate	17.0 #24
30.3 #6	Offensive rebound rate	23.4 #26
26.2 #18	Assists per game	26.3 #16
Defense
107.7 #6	Points allowed	116.7 #22
1.07 #12	Points allowed per possession	1.13 #24
53.1 #14	Opponent effective FG%	53.0 #13
35.5 #18	Opponent 3-point %	34.6 #13
13.2 #29	Turnovers forced	13.6 #26
78.7 #1	Defensive rebound rate	68.9 #26
7.3 #23	Steals per game	7.0 #26
4.0 #28	Blocks per game	4.2 #23

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Knicks

2-4 overall · 2-4 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ 76ers93–98
W@ Bulls133–127
Wvs Pistons111–97
Lvs Magic102–111
L@ Celtics103–107

A week or more of rest.

Magic

2-4 overall · 2-3 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs Celtics97–108
W@ Raptors121–114
L@ Raptors99–129
W@ Knicks111–102
Lvs Timberwolves93–115

A week or more of rest.

Knicks @ Magic

What could decide it: ORL has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Knicks

Magic

Knicks has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Knicks

Magic