Memphis Grizzlies at Brooklyn Nets: Model Line and Edge

Sun, Mar 28, 3:00 PM ETBarclays Center · at Nets

#27BKNNets

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Grizzlies and Nets
MEM	This season	BKN
6-0	Record	1-5
6-0	ATS	3-3
2-4	O/U	3-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects MEM 116–111 · win probability MEM 66%

Pick this game

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 226.7

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: MEM has more of the edges

MEM 7, BKN 2 · 2026-27 so far

MEMBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: MEM 55.9 and allows 49.2; BKN 50.7 and allows 55.3

MEMBig

BKN offense vs MEM defense

Offense 29th of 30 against a defense 13th, on the model’s ratings

MEMBig

Three-pointers

MEM hits 41.7% and allows 30.0%; BKN hits 35.1% and allows 35.8%. Threes are 42.1% and 48.0% of their shots

MEMBig

MEM offense vs BKN defense

Offense 11th of 30 against a defense 22nd, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

MEM has played the 30th-hardest schedule, BKN the 19th. A record against a soft schedule means less

MEMSmall

Recent form

Last 5: MEM 5-0 ATS, margin +14.2; BKN 3-2 ATS, margin -8.0

MEMSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: MEM 30.6%, BKN 25.4%. Defensive: MEM 75.0%, BKN 77.8%

BKNSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: MEM 25.3, BKN 32.9. Allowed: MEM 31.4, BKN 33.5

BKNSmall

Home court

BKN at home. This season: BKN 0-3 at home, MEM 4-0 away

MEMSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: MEM 15.4%, BKN 18.2%. Forced: MEM 15.7%, BKN 15.9%

Context

Tempo

About 104 possessions: MEM plays 103.6 a game (13th fastest), BKN 105.1 (10th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: MEM 100%, BKN 100%. Transfers in: MEM 0, BKN 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MEM WWWWW	6-0	100%	4-0	—
BKN WLWLW	3-3	50%	0-3	—

Venue/role: MEM away; BKN home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
MEM UOUUO	2-4	33%	6-0
BKN OOOUU	3-3	50%	1-5

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MEMlast 6	6-0 100%	6-0 100%	2-4 33%
BKNlast 6	1-5 17%	3-3 50%	3-3 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Grizzlies

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 30	vs LAL	L114–120LU
Apr 2	@ HOU	L101–132LO
Apr 4	@ DEN	L119–136WO

Nets

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 29	vs GS	L106–109WU
Mar 31	vs CLE	L121–125WO
Apr 2	vs NY	L92–93WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 11 since 2021-22

MEM 6–5 BKNMEM leads · 11 games since 2021-22 · MEM 5-6 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 9, 2025-26	MEM 115 @ BKN 126	BKN -1.5	BKN W
Jan 11, 2025-26	BKN 98 @ MEM 103	MEM -7.5	BKN W
Dec 13, 2024-25	BKN 119 @ MEM 135	MEM -9.5	MEM W
Nov 4, 2024-25	MEM 104 @ BKN 106	BKN +4.5	BKN W
Oct 30, 2024-25	BKN 119 @ MEM 106	MEM -12.5	BKN W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Grizzlies

6 games played

Straight up

6-0

100% wins

Against the spread

6-0

100% covers · avg +14.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg −8.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

6-0100%

W W W W W W

6 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

6-0100%

W W W W W W

6 straight covers4 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-433%

U U O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsUTAH	W 123-103	-1.5	W +18.5	240.5	U 226
Oct 23	@GS	W 111-108	+4.5	W +7.5	236.5	U 219
Oct 25	@SAC	W 123-112	-3.5	W +7.5	234.5	O 235
Oct 26	@UTAH	W 110-105	-1.5	W +3.5	237.5	U 215
Oct 29	@POR	W 124-103	+7.5	W +28.5	233.5	U 227
Oct 31	vsSAC	W 136-105	-7.5	W +23.5	229.5	O 241

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UTAH

W 123-103

+18.5

W 111-108

+7.5

SAC

W 123-112

+7.5

UTAH

W 110-105

+3.5

POR

W 124-103

+28.5

SAC

W 136-105

+23.5

covered 6didn’t cover 0avg +14.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UTAH

W 123-103

−14.5

W 111-108

−17.5

SAC

W 123-112

+0.5

UTAH

W 110-105

−22.5

POR

W 124-103

−6.5

SAC

W 136-105

+11.5

over 2under 4avg −8.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Nets

6 games played

Straight up

1-5

17% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg −0.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg −2 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-517%

L L L L L W

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-350%

L W L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-350%

U O O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsCHA	L 103-110	+1.5	L −5.5	220.5	U 213
Oct 24	@CLE	L 121-125	+11.5	W +7.5	228.5	O 246
Oct 25	vsIND	L 109-136	+5.5	L −21.5	231.5	O 245
Oct 27	@BOS	L 124-125	+13.5	W +12.5	223.5	O 249
Oct 30	vsDET	L 94-110	+8.5	L −7.5	222.5	U 204
Nov 1	@IND	W 98-90	+3.5	W +11.5	230.5	U 188

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CHA

L 103-110

−5.5

CLE

L 121-125

+7.5

IND

L 109-136

−21.5

BOS

L 124-125

+12.5

DET

L 94-110

−7.5

IND

W 98-90

+11.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg −0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CHA

L 103-110

−7.5

CLE

L 121-125

+17.5

IND

L 109-136

+13.5

BOS

L 124-125

+25.5

DET

L 94-110

−18.5

IND

W 98-90

−42.5

over 3under 3avg −2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Grizzlies has the better starters

Position by position: Grizzlies 3, Nets 0, even 2

GrizzliesBetterNets

G T. Jerome25.8 pts · 3.2 reb · 5.6 ast Score 97

MEMBig

G K. Ellis5 pts · 2 reb · 2.3 ast Score 21

F C. Boozer17.7 pts · 10.5 reb · 5.7 ast Score 87

MEMBig

G N. Traore10.5 pts · 1.8 reb · 2.7 ast Score 1

F C. Coward13 pts · 8.6 reb · 2.6 ast Score 33

Even

F J. Randle20.8 pts · 7.2 reb · 5.3 ast Score 39

F J. Wells12.2 pts · 3.3 reb · 1 ast Score 85

Even

F M. Porter21.2 pts · 7.3 reb · 1.3 ast Score 91

C Z. Edey7 pts · 7 reb · 1 ast Score 92

MEMBig

C D. Sharpe8 pts · 7.7 reb · 1.7 ast Score 6

GrizzliesBetterNets

MEM offense11th of 30 · +1.3

MEMBig

BKN defense22nd of 30 · -1.7

MEM defense13th of 30 · +1.1

MEMBig

BKN offense29th of 30 · -5.5

Backcourt+16.5 · 1 player

MEMBig

Backcourt-12.0 · 2 players

Frontcourt+29.5 · 4 players

MEMBig

Frontcourt+7.8 · 3 players

Bench-18.8 · 5 players

Even

Bench-17.9 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestMEM betterBKN betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Grizzlies

Guards

T. Jerome30 minJ. Mashack22 minJ. Small21 minC. Spencer19 minW. Clayton11 min

Forwards

C. Boozer31 minC. Coward28 minJ. Wells27 minJ. Grant24 minT. Hendricks19 minO. Prosper19 min

Centers

Z. Edey20 minI. Stewart18 minC. Cooper3 min

Out

S. PippenDay-To-DayQ. PostDay-To-Day

Nets

Guards

K. Ellis24 minN. Traore21 minT. Mann24 minD. Powell21 minB. Saraf21 min

Forwards

J. Randle34 minM. Porter32 minC. Johnson22 minN. Clowney22 minD. Wolf21 minJ. Minott11 min

Centers

D. Sharpe23 minM. Wagner19 min

Out

M. BrownDay-To-DayE. DeminOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

MEM121.2 #1

BKN108.2 #25

Points per possession

MEM1.16 #4

BKN1.03 #29

Pace (possessions)

MEM103.6 #13

BKN105.1 #10

Shooting

Effective FG%

MEM55.9 #5

BKN50.7 #26

3-point %

MEM41.7 #1

BKN35.1 #15

3-point attempt rate

MEM42.1 #19

BKN48.0 #3

Free throw rate

MEM25.3 #22

BKN32.9 #6

Possessions

Turnover rate

MEM15.4 #16

BKN18.2 #27

Offensive rebound rate

MEM30.6 #5

BKN25.4 #23

Assists per game

MEM27.0 #13

BKN22.8 #28

Defense

Points allowed

MEM106.0 #3

BKN116.0 #21

Points allowed per possession

MEM1.03 #2

BKN1.11 #18

Opponent effective FG%

MEM49.2 #3

BKN55.3 #23

Opponent 3-point %

MEM30.0 #3

BKN35.8 #19

Turnovers forced

MEM15.7 #15

BKN15.9 #12

Defensive rebound rate

MEM75.0 #9

BKN77.8 #2

Steals per game

MEM6.3 #28

BKN9.0 #14

Blocks per game

MEM5.2 #11

BKN4.7 #17

MEM		BKN
Scoring
121.2 #1	Points per game	108.2 #25
1.16 #4	Points per possession	1.03 #29
103.6 #13	Pace (possessions)	105.1 #10
Shooting
55.9 #5	Effective FG%	50.7 #26
41.7 #1	3-point %	35.1 #15
42.1 #19	3-point attempt rate	48.0 #3
25.3 #22	Free throw rate	32.9 #6
Possessions
15.4 #16	Turnover rate	18.2 #27
30.6 #5	Offensive rebound rate	25.4 #23
27.0 #13	Assists per game	22.8 #28
Defense
106.0 #3	Points allowed	116.0 #21
1.03 #2	Points allowed per possession	1.11 #18
49.2 #3	Opponent effective FG%	55.3 #23
30.0 #3	Opponent 3-point %	35.8 #19
15.7 #15	Turnovers forced	15.9 #12
75.0 #9	Defensive rebound rate	77.8 #2
6.3 #28	Steals per game	9.0 #14
5.2 #11	Blocks per game	4.7 #17

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Grizzlies

6-0 overall · 6-0 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Kings136–105
W@ Trail Blazers124–103
W@ Jazz110–105
W@ Kings123–112
W@ Warriors111–108

A week or more of rest.

Nets

1-5 overall · 1-5 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Pacers98–90
Lvs Pistons94–110
L@ Celtics124–125
Lvs Pacers109–136
L@ Cavaliers121–125

A week or more of rest.

Grizzlies @ Nets

What could decide it: MEM has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Grizzlies

Nets

Grizzlies has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Grizzlies

Nets