Los Angeles Lakers at Memphis Grizzlies: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Mar 30, 8:00 PM ETFedExForum · at Grizzlies · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Lakers and Grizzlies
LAL	This season	MEM
5-2	Record	6-0
4-3	ATS	6-0
4-3	O/U	2-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects LAL 118–116 · win probability LAL 56%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 234.4

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: MEM has more of the edges

LAL 2, MEM 6 · 2026-27 so far

MEMBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: LAL 26.8%, MEM 30.6%. Defensive: LAL 67.4%, MEM 75.0%

Context

Schedule so far

LAL has played the 16th-hardest schedule, MEM the 30th. A record against a soft schedule means less

LALBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: LAL 37.2, MEM 25.3. Allowed: LAL 30.7, MEM 31.4

MEMBig

Three-pointers

LAL hits 38.9% and allows 36.7%; MEM hits 41.7% and allows 30.0%. Threes are 45.7% and 42.1% of their shots

LALBig

LAL offense vs MEM defense

Offense 4th of 30 against a defense 13th, on the model’s ratings

MEMSmall

MEM offense vs LAL defense

Offense 11th of 30 against a defense 17th, on the model’s ratings

MEMSmall

Recent form

Last 5: LAL 3-2 ATS, margin +1.4; MEM 5-0 ATS, margin +14.2

MEMSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: LAL 60.1 and allows 53.7; MEM 55.9 and allows 49.2

MEMSmall

Home court

MEM at home. This season: MEM 2-0 at home, LAL 2-1 away

Context

Tempo

About 103 possessions: LAL plays 102.9 a game (17th fastest), MEM 103.6 (13th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: LAL 18.3%, MEM 15.4%. Forced: LAL 17.8%, MEM 15.7%

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: LAL 100%, MEM 100%. Transfers in: LAL 0, MEM 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LAL WLWLW	4-3	57%	2-1	—
MEM WWWWW	6-0	100%	2-0	—

Venue/role: LAL away; MEM home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
LAL OOUUO	4-3	57%	5-2
MEM UOUUO	2-4	33%	6-0

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LALlast 7	5-2 71%	4-3 57%	4-3 57%
MEMlast 6	6-0 100%	6-0 100%	2-4 33%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Lakers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Apr 1	@ OKC	L110–115WO
Apr 4	vs SA	L108–136LO
Apr 6	vs DAL	L128–134LO

Grizzlies

Date	Game	Last meeting
Apr 2	@ HOU	L101–132LO
Apr 4	@ DEN	L119–136WO
Apr 6	vs DET	L110–126WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 24 since 2021-22

LAL 16–8 MEMLAL leads · 24 games since 2021-22 · LAL has won the last 6 meetings · LAL 14-10 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Jan 4, 2025-26	MEM 114 @ LAL 120	LAL -5.5	LAL W
Jan 2, 2025-26	MEM 121 @ LAL 128	LAL -5.5	LAL W
Oct 31, 2025-26	LAL 117 @ MEM 112	MEM +1.5	LAL W
Mar 29, 2024-25	LAL 134 @ MEM 127	MEM -1.5	LAL W
Dec 15, 2024-25	MEM 110 @ LAL 116	LAL +2.5	LAL W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Lakers

7 games played

Straight up

5-2

71% wins

Against the spread

4-3

57% covers · avg +1.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-3

57% overs · avg +4.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-271%

W W W L W L W

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

4-357%

W L W L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

4-357%

U O O O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsGS	W 127-105	-6.5	W +15.5	233.5	U 232
Oct 23	vsLAC	W 125-117	-8.5	L −0.5	225.5	O 242
Oct 25	@UTAH	W 132-123	-6.5	W +2.5	237.5	O 255
Oct 27	vsPOR	L 129-136	-1.5	L −8.5	234.5	O 265
Oct 28	@LAC	W 103-87	+1.5	W +17.5	224.5	U 190
Oct 30	@GS	L 95-112	-2.5	L −19.5	234.5	U 207
Nov 1	vsTOR	W 131-125	-3.5	W +2.5	224.5	O 256

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 127-105

+15.5

LAC

W 125-117

−0.5

UTAH

W 132-123

+2.5

POR

L 129-136

−8.5

LAC

W 103-87

+17.5

L 95-112

−19.5

TOR

W 131-125

+2.5

covered 4didn’t cover 3avg +1.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 127-105

−1.5

LAC

W 125-117

+16.5

UTAH

W 132-123

+17.5

POR

L 129-136

+30.5

LAC

W 103-87

−34.5

L 95-112

−27.5

TOR

W 131-125

+31.5

over 4under 3avg +4.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Grizzlies

6 games played

Straight up

6-0

100% wins

Against the spread

6-0

100% covers · avg +14.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg −8.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

6-0100%

W W W W W W

6 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

6-0100%

W W W W W W

6 straight covers4 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-433%

U U O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsUTAH	W 123-103	-1.5	W +18.5	240.5	U 226
Oct 23	@GS	W 111-108	+4.5	W +7.5	236.5	U 219
Oct 25	@SAC	W 123-112	-3.5	W +7.5	234.5	O 235
Oct 26	@UTAH	W 110-105	-1.5	W +3.5	237.5	U 215
Oct 29	@POR	W 124-103	+7.5	W +28.5	233.5	U 227
Oct 31	vsSAC	W 136-105	-7.5	W +23.5	229.5	O 241

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UTAH

W 123-103

+18.5

W 111-108

+7.5

SAC

W 123-112

+7.5

UTAH

W 110-105

+3.5

POR

W 124-103

+28.5

SAC

W 136-105

+23.5

covered 6didn’t cover 0avg +14.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UTAH

W 123-103

−14.5

W 111-108

−17.5

SAC

W 123-112

+0.5

UTAH

W 110-105

−22.5

POR

W 124-103

−6.5

SAC

W 136-105

+11.5

over 2under 4avg −8.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Grizzlies has the better starters

Position by position: Lakers 1, Grizzlies 3, even 1

LakersBetterGrizzlies

G A. Reaves23.1 pts · 3.4 reb · 5.1 ast Score 82

MEMSmall

G T. Jerome25.8 pts · 3.2 reb · 5.6 ast Score 97

G L. Doncic37.7 pts · 8.2 reb · 7.3 ast Score 79

Even

F C. Boozer17.7 pts · 10.5 reb · 5.7 ast Score 87

G M. Thybulle9 pts · 1.9 reb · 1.1 ast Score 50

LALSmall

F C. Coward13 pts · 8.6 reb · 2.6 ast Score 33

F J. LaRavia5.8 pts · 3.5 reb · 1.3 ast Score 70

MEMSmall

F J. Wells12.2 pts · 3.3 reb · 1 ast Score 85

C W. Kessler14.3 pts · 9.9 reb · 1.1 ast Score 42

MEMBig

C Z. Edey7 pts · 7 reb · 1 ast Score 92

LakersBetterGrizzlies

LAL offense4th of 30 · +3.2

LALSmall

MEM defense13th of 30 · +1.1

LAL defense17th of 30 · -0.2

MEMSmall

MEM offense11th of 30 · +1.3

Backcourt+24.2 · 3 players

LALBig

Backcourt+16.5 · 1 player

Frontcourt+7.4 · 2 players

MEMBig

Frontcourt+29.5 · 4 players

Bench+6.7 · 5 players

LALBig

Bench-18.8 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestLAL betterMEM betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Lakers

Guards

A. Reaves36 minL. Doncic36 minM. Thybulle25 minQ. Grimes27 minC. Sexton18 minJ. Hardy16 min

Forwards

J. LaRavia23 minS. Mamukelashvili24 minJ. Vanderbilt15 minK. Looney8 minA. KalumaNewA. OkerekeNew

Centers

W. Kessler31 min

Out

Z. WilliamsOut

Grizzlies

Guards

T. Jerome30 minJ. Mashack22 minJ. Small21 minC. Spencer19 minW. Clayton11 min

Forwards

C. Boozer31 minC. Coward28 minJ. Wells27 minJ. Grant24 minT. Hendricks19 minO. Prosper19 min

Centers

Z. Edey20 minI. Stewart18 minC. Cooper3 min

Out

S. PippenDay-To-DayQ. PostDay-To-Day

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

LAL120.3 #5

MEM121.2 #1

Points per possession

LAL1.18 #2

MEM1.16 #4

Pace (possessions)

LAL102.9 #17

MEM103.6 #13

Shooting

Effective FG%

LAL60.1 #1

MEM55.9 #5

3-point %

LAL38.9 #4

MEM41.7 #1

3-point attempt rate

LAL45.7 #9

MEM42.1 #19

Free throw rate

LAL37.2 #2

MEM25.3 #22

Possessions

Turnover rate

LAL18.3 #28

MEM15.4 #16

Offensive rebound rate

LAL26.8 #19

MEM30.6 #5

Assists per game

LAL23.4 #27

MEM27.0 #13

Defense

Points allowed

LAL115.0 #17

MEM106.0 #3

Points allowed per possession

LAL1.11 #19

MEM1.03 #2

Opponent effective FG%

LAL53.7 #17

MEM49.2 #3

Opponent 3-point %

LAL36.7 #22

MEM30.0 #3

Turnovers forced

LAL17.8 #4

MEM15.7 #15

Defensive rebound rate

LAL67.4 #29

MEM75.0 #9

Steals per game

LAL10.4 #4

MEM6.3 #28

Blocks per game

LAL6.7 #3

MEM5.2 #11

LAL		MEM
Scoring
120.3 #5	Points per game	121.2 #1
1.18 #2	Points per possession	1.16 #4
102.9 #17	Pace (possessions)	103.6 #13
Shooting
60.1 #1	Effective FG%	55.9 #5
38.9 #4	3-point %	41.7 #1
45.7 #9	3-point attempt rate	42.1 #19
37.2 #2	Free throw rate	25.3 #22
Possessions
18.3 #28	Turnover rate	15.4 #16
26.8 #19	Offensive rebound rate	30.6 #5
23.4 #27	Assists per game	27.0 #13
Defense
115.0 #17	Points allowed	106.0 #3
1.11 #19	Points allowed per possession	1.03 #2
53.7 #17	Opponent effective FG%	49.2 #3
36.7 #22	Opponent 3-point %	30.0 #3
17.8 #4	Turnovers forced	15.7 #15
67.4 #29	Defensive rebound rate	75.0 #9
10.4 #4	Steals per game	6.3 #28
6.7 #3	Blocks per game	5.2 #11

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Lakers

5-2 overall · 4-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Raptors131–125
L@ Warriors95–112
W@ Clippers103–87
Lvs Trail Blazers129–136
W@ Jazz132–123

A week or more of rest.

Grizzlies

6-0 overall · 6-0 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Kings136–105
W@ Trail Blazers124–103
W@ Jazz110–105
W@ Kings123–112
W@ Warriors111–108

A week or more of rest.

Lakers @ Grizzlies

What could decide it: MEM has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Lakers

Grizzlies

Grizzlies has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Lakers

Grizzlies