Los Angeles Lakers at Oklahoma City Thunder: Model Line and Edge

Thu, Apr 1, 9:30 PM ETPaycom Center · at Thunder · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Lakers and Thunder
LAL	This season	OKC
5-2	Record	4-2
4-3	ATS	3-3
4-3	O/U	1-5

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects OKC 115–113 · win probability OKC 56%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 227.1

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it

LAL 3, OKC 3 · 2026-27 so far

Context

Schedule so far

LAL has played the 16th-hardest schedule, OKC the 5th. A record against a soft schedule means less

OKCBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: LAL 26.8%, OKC 28.5%. Defensive: LAL 67.4%, OKC 71.4%

LALSmall

Three-pointers

LAL hits 38.9% and allows 36.7%; OKC hits 30.9% and allows 35.3%. Threes are 45.7% and 35.8% of their shots

LALSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: LAL 60.1 and allows 53.7; OKC 49.5 and allows 51.0

OKCSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: LAL 18.3%, OKC 14.5%. Forced: LAL 17.8%, OKC 15.8%

LALSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: LAL 37.2, OKC 21.8. Allowed: LAL 30.7, OKC 23.4

Context

Tempo

About 102 possessions: LAL plays 102.9 a game (17th fastest), OKC 101.1 (27th). Faster games mean more points

OKCSmall

Home court

OKC at home. This season: OKC 3-0 at home, LAL 2-1 away

Even

Recent form

Last 5: LAL 3-2 ATS, margin +1.4; OKC 2-3 ATS, margin -3.0

Even

LAL offense vs OKC defense

Offense 4th of 30 against a defense 2nd, on the model’s ratings

Even

OKC offense vs LAL defense

Offense 18th of 30 against a defense 17th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: LAL 100%, OKC 100%. Transfers in: LAL 0, OKC 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LAL WLWLW	4-3	57%	2-1	—
OKC WLWLL	3-3	50%	2-1	—

Venue/role: LAL away; OKC home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
LAL OOUUO	4-3	57%	5-2
OKC UUOUU	1-5	17%	4-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LALlast 7	5-2 71%	4-3 57%	4-3 57%
OKClast 6	4-2 67%	3-3 50%	1-5 17%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Lakers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Apr 4	vs SA	L108–136LO
Apr 6	vs DAL	L128–134LO
Apr 7	vs MIN	W120–106WU

Thunder

Date	Game	Last meeting
Apr 3	vs NO	W104–95LU
Apr 6	@ UTAH	W146–111WO
Apr 8	vs GS	W104–97LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 22 since 2021-22

LAL 8–14 OKCOKC leads · 22 games since 2021-22 · OKC has won the last 9 meetings · LAL 9-13 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
May 11, 2025-26	OKC 115 @ LAL 110	LAL +12.5	LAL W
May 9, 2025-26	OKC 131 @ LAL 108	LAL +9.5	OKC W
May 7, 2025-26	LAL 107 @ OKC 125	OKC -15.5	OKC W
May 5, 2025-26	LAL 90 @ OKC 108	OKC -15.5	OKC W
Apr 7, 2025-26	OKC 123 @ LAL 87	LAL +17.5	OKC W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Lakers

7 games played

Straight up

5-2

71% wins

Against the spread

4-3

57% covers · avg +1.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-3

57% overs · avg +4.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-271%

W W W L W L W

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

4-357%

W L W L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

4-357%

U O O O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsGS	W 127-105	-6.5	W +15.5	233.5	U 232
Oct 23	vsLAC	W 125-117	-8.5	L −0.5	225.5	O 242
Oct 25	@UTAH	W 132-123	-6.5	W +2.5	237.5	O 255
Oct 27	vsPOR	L 129-136	-1.5	L −8.5	234.5	O 265
Oct 28	@LAC	W 103-87	+1.5	W +17.5	224.5	U 190
Oct 30	@GS	L 95-112	-2.5	L −19.5	234.5	U 207
Nov 1	vsTOR	W 131-125	-3.5	W +2.5	224.5	O 256

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 127-105

+15.5

LAC

W 125-117

−0.5

UTAH

W 132-123

+2.5

POR

L 129-136

−8.5

LAC

W 103-87

+17.5

L 95-112

−19.5

TOR

W 131-125

+2.5

covered 4didn’t cover 3avg +1.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 127-105

−1.5

LAC

W 125-117

+16.5

UTAH

W 132-123

+17.5

POR

L 129-136

+30.5

LAC

W 103-87

−34.5

L 95-112

−27.5

TOR

W 131-125

+31.5

over 4under 3avg +4.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Thunder

6 games played

Straight up

4-2

67% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg −6.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-5

17% overs · avg −12.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-267%

W W W W L L

2 straight losses2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

W W L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

1-517%

U U U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 20	@SA	W 116-104	-1.5	W +10.5	229.5	U 220
Oct 22	vsDEN	W 96-84	-7.5	W +4.5	236.5	U 180
Oct 25	vsLAC	W 108-101	-16.5	L −9.5	223.5	U 209
Oct 26	vsPHX	W 125-114	-8.5	W +2.5	221.5	O 239
Oct 28	@DAL	L 96-120	-4.5	L −28.5	227.5	U 216
Oct 31	@HOU	L 98-119	+2.5	L −18.5	219.5	U 217

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 116-104

+10.5

DEN

W 96-84

+4.5

LAC

W 108-101

−9.5

PHX

W 125-114

+2.5

DAL

L 96-120

−28.5

HOU

L 98-119

−18.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg −6.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 116-104

−9.5

DEN

W 96-84

−56.5

LAC

W 108-101

−14.5

PHX

W 125-114

+17.5

DAL

L 96-120

−11.5

HOU

L 98-119

−2.5

over 1under 5avg −12.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: Lakers 2, Thunder 2, even 1

LakersBetterThunder

G A. Reaves23.1 pts · 3.4 reb · 5.1 ast Score 82

Even

G S. Gilgeous-Alexander26 pts · 4.5 reb · 3.3 ast Score 88

G L. Doncic37.7 pts · 8.2 reb · 7.3 ast Score 79

OKCSmall

G A. Mitchell16.5 pts · 3.3 reb · 3.8 ast Score 99

G M. Thybulle9 pts · 1.9 reb · 1.1 ast Score 50

LALBig

G J. McCain10.8 pts · 2.3 reb · 2.2 ast Score 8

F J. LaRavia5.8 pts · 3.5 reb · 1.3 ast Score 70

LALSmall

G K. Williams5 pts · 3.5 reb · 0.7 ast Score 40

C W. Kessler14.3 pts · 9.9 reb · 1.1 ast Score 42

OKCBig

C I. Hartenstein9.5 pts · 9.2 reb · 2 ast Score 88

LakersBetterThunder

LAL offense4th of 30 · +3.2

Even

OKC defense2nd of 30 · +6.2

LAL defense17th of 30 · -0.2

Even

OKC offense18th of 30 · -1.1

Backcourt+24.2 · 3 players

Even

Backcourt+24.2 · 4 players

Frontcourt+7.4 · 2 players

OKCBig

Frontcourt+12.0 · 1 player

Bench+6.7 · 5 players

LALBig

Bench-4.1 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestLAL betterOKC betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Lakers

Guards

A. Reaves36 minL. Doncic36 minM. Thybulle25 minQ. Grimes27 minC. Sexton18 minJ. Hardy16 min

Forwards

J. LaRavia23 minS. Mamukelashvili24 minJ. Vanderbilt15 minK. Looney8 minA. KalumaNewA. OkerekeNew

Centers

W. Kessler31 min

Out

Z. WilliamsOut

Thunder

Guards

S. Gilgeous-Alexander33 minA. Mitchell26 minJ. McCain25 minK. Williams14 minJ. Dix18 minB. Stirtz16 min

Forwards

J. Williams18 minB. Barnhizer9 min

Centers

I. Hartenstein24 minA. Mara18 min

Out

A. CarusoOutC. HolmgrenOutJ. WilliamsOutC. WallaceOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

LAL120.3 #5

OKC106.5 #29

Points per possession

LAL1.18 #2

OKC1.05 #23

Pace (possessions)

LAL102.9 #17

OKC101.1 #27

Shooting

Effective FG%

LAL60.1 #1

OKC49.5 #28

3-point %

LAL38.9 #4

OKC30.9 #26

3-point attempt rate

LAL45.7 #9

OKC35.8 #29

Free throw rate

LAL37.2 #2

OKC21.8 #28

Possessions

Turnover rate

LAL18.3 #28

OKC14.5 #7

Offensive rebound rate

LAL26.8 #19

OKC28.5 #10

Assists per game

LAL23.4 #27

OKC21.7 #29

Defense

Points allowed

LAL115.0 #17

OKC107.0 #5

Points allowed per possession

LAL1.11 #19

OKC1.06 #7

Opponent effective FG%

LAL53.7 #17

OKC51.0 #6

Opponent 3-point %

LAL36.7 #22

OKC35.3 #17

Turnovers forced

LAL17.8 #4

OKC15.8 #13

Defensive rebound rate

LAL67.4 #29

OKC71.4 #18

Steals per game

LAL10.4 #4

OKC8.3 #20

Blocks per game

LAL6.7 #3

OKC6.3 #7

LAL		OKC
Scoring
120.3 #5	Points per game	106.5 #29
1.18 #2	Points per possession	1.05 #23
102.9 #17	Pace (possessions)	101.1 #27
Shooting
60.1 #1	Effective FG%	49.5 #28
38.9 #4	3-point %	30.9 #26
45.7 #9	3-point attempt rate	35.8 #29
37.2 #2	Free throw rate	21.8 #28
Possessions
18.3 #28	Turnover rate	14.5 #7
26.8 #19	Offensive rebound rate	28.5 #10
23.4 #27	Assists per game	21.7 #29
Defense
115.0 #17	Points allowed	107.0 #5
1.11 #19	Points allowed per possession	1.06 #7
53.7 #17	Opponent effective FG%	51.0 #6
36.7 #22	Opponent 3-point %	35.3 #17
17.8 #4	Turnovers forced	15.8 #13
67.4 #29	Defensive rebound rate	71.4 #18
10.4 #4	Steals per game	8.3 #20
6.7 #3	Blocks per game	6.3 #7

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Lakers

5-2 overall · 4-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Raptors131–125
L@ Warriors95–112
W@ Clippers103–87
Lvs Trail Blazers129–136
W@ Jazz132–123

A week or more of rest.

Thunder

4-2 overall · 4-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Rockets98–119
L@ Mavericks96–120
Wvs Suns125–114
Wvs Clippers108–101
Wvs Nuggets96–84

A week or more of rest.

Lakers @ Thunder

What could decide it

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Lakers

Thunder

The starting fives are even

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Lakers

Thunder