Toyota Center (Houston) · at Rockets · Conference game
LineNo line yet
Total—
 MEM | This season | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 6-0 | Record | 6-1 |
| 6-0 | ATS | 6-1 |
| 2-4 | O/U | 5-2 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model: projects HOU 119–108 · win probability HOU 78%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 227.4
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record
What could decide it: HOU has more of the edges
MEM 0, HOU 4 · 2026-27 so far
Context
Schedule so far
MEM has played the 30th-hardest schedule, HOU the 12th. A record against a soft schedule means less
HOUBigFree throws
Free throw rate: MEM 25.3, HOU 31.9. Allowed: MEM 31.4, HOU 24.7
HOUSmallHOU offense vs MEM defense
Offense 6th of 30 against a defense 13th, on the model’s ratings
HOUSmallMEM offense vs HOU defense
Offense 11th of 30 against a defense 4th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Tempo
About 103 possessions: MEM plays 103.6 a game (13th fastest), HOU 101.6 (24th). Faster games mean more points
HOUSmallHome court
HOU at home. This season: HOU 3-0 at home, MEM 4-0 away
Even
Recent form
Last 5: MEM 5-0 ATS, margin +14.2; HOU 4-1 ATS, margin +13.0
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: MEM 55.9 and allows 49.2; HOU 56.6 and allows 52.1
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: MEM 30.6%, HOU 32.4%. Defensive: MEM 75.0%, HOU 73.2%
Even
Three-pointers
MEM hits 41.7% and allows 30.0%; HOU hits 39.0% and allows 30.2%. Threes are 42.1% and 38.1% of their shots
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: MEM 15.4%, HOU 15.1%. Forced: MEM 15.7%, HOU 15.7%
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: MEM 100%, HOU 100%. Transfers in: MEM 0, HOU 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edge
Spread
Market—
ModelHOU -11.0
Model edge—
Total
Market—
Model227.4
Model edge—
Projected score
MEM 108.2 · HOU 119.2
Win probability
HOU 78%
1st half
Spread
HOU -6.1
Total
114.0
Projected score
MEM 53.9 · HOU 60
Market
Open → current
Spread
Open—
no open
Now—
Opening line not available
Total
Open—
no open
Now—
Moneyline
—
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2026-27, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MEMlast 6 | 6-0 100% | 6-0 100% | 2-4 33% |
| HOUlast 7 | 6-1 86% | 6-1 86% | 5-2 71% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 20 since 2021-22
MEM 9–11 HOUHOU leads · 20 games since 2021-22 · HOU has won the last 4 meetings · MEM 8-11-1 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 12, 2025-26 | MEM 101 @ HOU 132 | HOU -14.5 | HOU W |
| Mar 27, 2025-26 | HOU 119 @ MEM 109 | MEM +13.5 | MEM W |
| Jan 26, 2025-26 | MEM 99 @ HOU 108 | HOU -11.5 | MEM W |
| Nov 5, 2025-26 | HOU 124 @ MEM 109 | MEM +6.5 | HOU W |
| Jan 30, 2024-25 | HOU 119 @ MEM 120 | MEM -4.5 | HOU W |
ATS History · 2026-27
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Grizzlies
6 games played
Straight up
6-0
100% wins
Against the spread
6-0
100% covers · avg +14.8 pts vs the line
Over / Under
2-4
33% overs · avg −8.2 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
21
vs
UTAH
UTAHW 123-103
+18.5
23
@
GS
GSW 111-108
+7.5
25
@
SAC
SACW 123-112
+7.5
26
@UTAH
UTAHW 110-105
+3.5
29
@
POR
PORW 124-103
+28.5
31
vsSAC
SACW 136-105
+23.5
covered 6didn’t cover 0avg +14.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
21
vsUTAH
UTAHW 123-103
−14.5
23
@GS
GSW 111-108
−17.5
25
@SAC
SACW 123-112
+0.5
26
@UTAH
UTAHW 110-105
−22.5
29
@POR
PORW 124-103
−6.5
31
vsSAC
SACW 136-105
+11.5
over 2under 4avg −8.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Rockets
7 games played
Straight up
6-1
86% wins
Against the spread
6-1
86% covers · avg +8.5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
5-2
71% overs · avg +3.2 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21 | vs DAL | W 128-110 | -9.5 | W +8.5 | 230.5 | O 238 |
| Oct 23 | @ SA | W 114-110 | +4.5 | W +8.5 | 224.5 | U 224 |
| Oct 24 | @ ATL | W 121-114 | -1.5 | W +5.5 | 227.5 | O 235 |
| Oct 26 | vsATL | W 120-110 | -4.5 | W +5.5 | 228.5 | O 230 |
| Oct 28 | @ MIL | W 132-100 | -8.5 | W +23.5 | 226.5 | O 232 |
| Oct 30 | @DAL | L 111-116 | -5.5 | L −10.5 | 223.5 | O 227 |
| Oct 31 | vs OKC | W 119-98 | -2.5 | W +18.5 | 219.5 | U 217 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
21
vsDAL
DALW 128-110
+8.5
23
@SA
SAW 114-110
+8.5
24
@ATL
ATLW 121-114
+5.5
26
vsATL
ATLW 120-110
+5.5
28
@MIL
MILW 132-100
+23.5
30
@DAL
DALL 111-116
−10.5
31
vsOKC
OKCW 119-98
+18.5
covered 6didn’t cover 1avg +8.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
21
vsDAL
DALW 128-110
+7.5
23
@SA
SAW 114-110
−0.5
24
@ATL
ATLW 121-114
+7.5
26
vsATL
ATLW 120-110
+1.5
28
@MIL
MILW 132-100
+5.5
30
@DAL
DALL 111-116
+3.5
31
vsOKC
OKCW 119-98
−2.5
over 5under 2avg +3.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
The starting fives are even
Position by position: Grizzlies 1, Rockets 1, even 3
GrizzliesBetterRockets
G T. Jerome25.8 pts · 3.2 reb · 5.6 ast
Score 97
←MEMBig
G A. Thompson16.3 pts · 6.6 reb · 3.7 ast
Score 60
F C. Boozer17.7 pts · 10.5 reb · 5.7 ast
Score 87
=Even
G F. VanVleet13 pts · 4 reb · 6.4 ast
Score 94
F C. Coward13 pts · 8.6 reb · 2.6 ast
Score 33
→HOUBig
F J. Smith19 pts · 5.9 reb · 2.7 ast
Score 79
F J. Wells12.2 pts · 3.3 reb · 1 ast
Score 85
=Even
F K. Durant22 pts · 5.6 reb · 3.3 ast
Score 82
C Z. Edey7 pts · 7 reb · 1 ast
Score 92
=Even
C A. Sengun22.8 pts · 9 reb · 7.4 ast
Score 84
GrizzliesBetterRockets
MEM offense11th of 30 · +1.3
→HOUSmall
HOU defense4th of 30 · +5.2
MEM defense13th of 30 · +1.1
→HOUSmall
HOU offense6th of 30 · +2.9
Backcourt+16.5 · 1 player
→HOUSmall
Backcourt+19.1 · 2 players
Frontcourt+29.5 · 4 players
=Even
Frontcourt+30.0 · 3 players
Bench-18.8 · 5 players
→HOUBig
Bench+16.2 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestMEM betterHOU betterNEW no NBA numbers yet
Depth chart
Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
GrizzliesGuards
T. Jerome30 minJ. Mashack22 minJ. Small21 minC. Spencer19 minW. Clayton11 min
Forwards
C. Boozer31 minC. Coward28 minJ. Wells27 minJ. Grant24 minT. Hendricks19 minO. Prosper19 min
Centers
Z. Edey20 minI. Stewart18 minC. Cooper3 min
Out
S. PippenDay-To-DayQ. PostDay-To-Day
RocketsGuards
A. Thompson34 minF. VanVleet31 minM. Smart25 minB. Bogdanovic15 minS. Pedulla4 minB. Thornton3 min
Forwards
J. Smith34 minK. Durant34 minT. Eason24 minJ. Tate9 minI. Crawford7 min
Centers
A. Sengun34 minO. Tshiebwe17 min
Out
S. AdamsOutC. CapelaDay-To-DayR. SheppardDay-To-Day
Matchup stats
2026-27 · rank among 30 teams
Scoring
Points per game
MEM121.2 #1HOU120.7 #3Points per possession
MEM1.16 #4HOU1.20 #1Pace (possessions)
MEM103.6 #13HOU101.6 #24Shooting
Effective FG%
MEM55.9 #5HOU56.6 #33-point %
MEM41.7 #1HOU39.0 #33-point attempt rate
MEM42.1 #19HOU38.1 #26Free throw rate
MEM25.3 #22HOU31.9 #8Possessions
Turnover rate
MEM15.4 #16HOU15.1 #13Offensive rebound rate
MEM30.6 #5HOU32.4 #3Assists per game
MEM27.0 #13HOU28.1 #5Defense
Points allowed
MEM106.0 #3HOU108.3 #7Points allowed per possession
MEM1.03 #2HOU1.06 #8Opponent effective FG%
MEM49.2 #3HOU52.1 #10Opponent 3-point %
MEM30.0 #3HOU30.2 #4Turnovers forced
MEM15.7 #15HOU15.7 #16Defensive rebound rate
MEM75.0 #9HOU73.2 #14Steals per game
MEM6.3 #28HOU9.7 #6Blocks per game
MEM5.2 #11HOU5.9 #8| MEM | HOU | |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| 121.2 #1 | Points per game | 120.7 #3 |
| 1.16 #4 | Points per possession | 1.20 #1 |
| 103.6 #13 | Pace (possessions) | 101.6 #24 |
| Shooting | ||
| 55.9 #5 | Effective FG% | 56.6 #3 |
| 41.7 #1 | 3-point % | 39.0 #3 |
| 42.1 #19 | 3-point attempt rate | 38.1 #26 |
| 25.3 #22 | Free throw rate | 31.9 #8 |
| Possessions | ||
| 15.4 #16 | Turnover rate | 15.1 #13 |
| 30.6 #5 | Offensive rebound rate | 32.4 #3 |
| 27.0 #13 | Assists per game | 28.1 #5 |
| Defense | ||
| 106.0 #3 | Points allowed | 108.3 #7 |
| 1.03 #2 | Points allowed per possession | 1.06 #8 |
| 49.2 #3 | Opponent effective FG% | 52.1 #10 |
| 30.0 #3 | Opponent 3-point % | 30.2 #4 |
| 15.7 #15 | Turnovers forced | 15.7 #16 |
| 75.0 #9 | Defensive rebound rate | 73.2 #14 |
| 6.3 #28 | Steals per game | 9.7 #6 |
| 5.2 #11 | Blocks per game | 5.9 #8 |
Grizzlies
6-0 overall · 6-0 in conference · Western Conference
Last five, 2026-27
- Wvs Kings136–105
- W@ Trail Blazers124–103
- W@ Jazz110–105
- W@ Kings123–112
- W@ Warriors111–108
A week or more of rest.
Rockets
6-1 overall · 3-1 in conference · Western Conference
Last five, 2026-27
- Wvs Thunder119–98
- L@ Mavericks111–116
- W@ Bucks132–100
- Wvs Hawks120–110
- W@ Hawks121–114
A week or more of rest.