Denver Nuggets at Phoenix Suns: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Apr 2, 10:00 PM ETMortgage Matchup Center · at Suns · Conference game

#21PHXSuns

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Nuggets and Suns
DEN	This season	PHX
3-2	Record	1-3
2-3	ATS	0-4
3-2	O/U	3-1

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects DEN 117–115 · win probability DEN 56%

Pick this game

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 232.4

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: DEN has more of the edges

DEN 5, PHX 2 · 2026-27 so far

DENBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: DEN 31.3, PHX 22.8. Allowed: DEN 21.5, PHX 31.1

Context

Schedule so far

DEN has played the 18th-hardest schedule, PHX the 3rd. A record against a soft schedule means less

DENBig

DEN offense vs PHX defense

Offense 8th of 30 against a defense 21st, on the model’s ratings

DENBig

Three-pointers

DEN hits 37.4% and allows 35.0%; PHX hits 35.0% and allows 43.9%. Threes are 40.9% and 45.1% of their shots

DENSmall

Recent form

Last 4: DEN 2-3 ATS, margin -1.2; PHX 0-4 ATS, margin -12.5

DENSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: DEN 54.7 and allows 54.2; PHX 54.4 and allows 58.7

PHXSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: DEN 16.4%, PHX 15.2%. Forced: DEN 15.9%, PHX 17.1%

PHXSmall

Home court

PHX at home. This season: PHX 1-1 at home, DEN 2-1 away

Context

Tempo

About 102 possessions: DEN plays 102.1 a game (21st fastest), PHX 101.3 (26th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: DEN 27.5%, PHX 28.3%. Defensive: DEN 70.5%, PHX 65.1%

Even

PHX offense vs DEN defense

Offense 19th of 30 against a defense 19th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: DEN 100%, PHX 100%. Transfers in: DEN 0, PHX 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
DEN LLLWW	2-3	40%	2-1	—
PHX LLLL	0-4	0%	0-2	—

Venue/role: DEN away; PHX home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
DEN UOOUO	3-2	60%	3-2
PHX UOOO	3-1	75%	1-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
DENlast 5	3-2 60%	2-3 40%	3-2 60%
PHXlast 4	1-3 25%	0-4 0%	3-1 75%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Nuggets

Date	Game	Last meeting
Apr 4	vs MEM	W136–119LO
Apr 6	vs NO	W104–91WU
Apr 8	vs LAC	L114–115LO

Suns

Date	Game	Last meeting
Apr 4	@ LAC	L93–117LO
Apr 6	@ GS	W131–122LO
Apr 9	vs MEM	W131–105WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 24 since 2021-22

DEN 15–9 PHXDEN leads · 24 games since 2021-22 · DEN has won the last 6 meetings · DEN 14-10 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Oct 30, 2026-27	DEN 127 @ PHX 120	PHX +4.5	DEN W
Mar 24, 2025-26	DEN 125 @ PHX 123	PHX +5.5	PHX W
Nov 29, 2025-26	DEN 130 @ PHX 112	PHX +3.5	DEN W
Oct 25, 2025-26	PHX 111 @ DEN 133	DEN -12.5	DEN W
Mar 7, 2024-25	PHX 141 @ DEN 149	DEN -8.5	PHX W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Nuggets

5 games played

Straight up

3-2

60% wins

Against the spread

2-3

40% covers · avg −5.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-2

60% overs · avg −7.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-260%

L W L W W

2 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-340%

L L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-260%

U O O U O

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 22	@OKC	L 84-96	+7.5	L −4.5	236.5	U 180
Oct 24	vsNO	W 141-135	-11.5	L −5.5	239.5	O 276
Oct 26	vsGS	L 114-134	-6.5	L −26.5	236.5	O 248
Oct 28	@NO	W 104-91	-4.5	W +8.5	241.5	U 195
Oct 30	@PHX	W 127-120	-4.5	W +2.5	231.5	O 247

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

OKC

L 84-96

−4.5

W 141-135

−5.5

L 114-134

−26.5

W 104-91

+8.5

PHX

W 127-120

+2.5

covered 2didn’t cover 3avg −5.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

OKC

L 84-96

−56.5

W 141-135

+36.5

L 114-134

+11.5

W 104-91

−46.5

PHX

W 127-120

+15.5

over 3under 2avg −7.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Suns

4 games played

Straight up

1-3

25% wins

Against the spread

0-4

0% covers · avg −10.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-1

75% overs · avg +9.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-325%

L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

0-40%

L L L L

4 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-175%

U O O O

3 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@POR	L 83-124	+3.5	L −37.5	232.5	U 207
Oct 24	vsGS	W 131-122	-9.5	L −0.5	221.5	O 253
Oct 26	@OKC	L 114-125	+8.5	L −2.5	221.5	O 239
Oct 30	vsDEN	L 120-127	+4.5	L −2.5	231.5	O 247

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

POR

L 83-124

−37.5

W 131-122

−0.5

OKC

L 114-125

−2.5

DEN

L 120-127

−2.5

covered 0didn’t cover 4avg −10.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

POR

L 83-124

−25.5

W 131-122

+31.5

OKC

L 114-125

+17.5

DEN

L 120-127

+15.5

over 3under 1avg +9.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Nuggets has the better starters

Position by position: Nuggets 4, Suns 1, even 0

NuggetsBetterSuns

G J. Murray25.8 pts · 5.6 reb · 5.6 ast Score 40

PHXBig

G D. Booker22.3 pts · 3.8 reb · 5.3 ast Score 92

G C. Braun15.4 pts · 4.2 reb · 2 ast Score 66

DENBig

G J. Green11 pts · 2.5 reb · 2.5 ast Score 11

F A. Gordon12.8 pts · 6 reb · 3 ast Score 74

DENBig

F M. Bridges16.3 pts · 7.3 reb · 2.3 ast Score 14

F C. Johnson8.5 pts · 5.5 reb · 2 ast Score 98

DENBig

F D. Brooks16.5 pts · 3 reb · 3 ast Score 59

C N. Jokic21.2 pts · 9.8 reb · 9.2 ast Score 86

DENBig

C K. Maluach8 pts · 7 reb · 1.3 ast Score 16

NuggetsBetterSuns

DEN offense8th of 30 · +2.5

DENBig

PHX defense21st of 30 · -1.3

DEN defense19th of 30 · -0.9

Even

PHX offense19th of 30 · -1.2

Backcourt+7.7 · 2 players

PHXSmall

Backcourt+10.4 · 2 players

Frontcourt+35.7 · 3 players

DENBig

Frontcourt-4.6 · 3 players

Bench-4.0 · 5 players

PHXBig

Bench+1.4 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestDEN betterPHX betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Nuggets

Guards

J. Murray38 minC. Braun36 minD. DeRozan26 minR. Nembhard20 minT. Jones10 min

Forwards

A. Gordon30 minC. Johnson23 minT. Brazile23 minC. Whitmore17 minB. Hopkins17 minM. Bagley12 min

Centers

N. Jokic37 min

Out

A. DialloOut

Suns

Guards

D. Booker35 minJ. Green27 minC. Gillespie26 minJ. Goodwin21 minP. Spencer18 minL. Kennard15 min

Forwards

M. Bridges33 minD. Brooks29 minO. Ighodaro18 minR. Dunn13 minR. Fleming12 minC. Huntley10 min

Centers

K. Maluach22 minD. Reath8 min

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27, 4 games in · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

DEN114.0 #15

PHX112.0 #19

Points per possession

DEN1.13 #9

PHX1.12 #12

Pace (possessions)

DEN102.1 #21

PHX101.3 #26

Shooting

Effective FG%

DEN54.7 #11

PHX54.4 #13

3-point %

DEN37.4 #7

PHX35.0 #16

3-point attempt rate

DEN40.9 #22

PHX45.1 #10

Free throw rate

DEN31.3 #11

PHX22.8 #27

Possessions

Turnover rate

DEN16.4 #21

PHX15.2 #15

Offensive rebound rate

DEN27.5 #15

PHX28.3 #11

Assists per game

DEN26.8 #14

PHX27.5 #8

Defense

Points allowed

DEN115.2 #18

PHX124.5 #27

Points allowed per possession

DEN1.12 #20

PHX1.21 #30

Opponent effective FG%

DEN54.2 #20

PHX58.7 #29

Opponent 3-point %

DEN35.0 #15

PHX43.9 #30

Turnovers forced

DEN15.9 #11

PHX17.1 #7

Defensive rebound rate

DEN70.5 #22

PHX65.1 #30

Steals per game

DEN10.2 #5

PHX9.0 #15

Blocks per game

DEN4.4 #18

PHX5.3 #10

DEN		PHX
Scoring
114.0 #15	Points per game	112.0 #19
1.13 #9	Points per possession	1.12 #12
102.1 #21	Pace (possessions)	101.3 #26
Shooting
54.7 #11	Effective FG%	54.4 #13
37.4 #7	3-point %	35.0 #16
40.9 #22	3-point attempt rate	45.1 #10
31.3 #11	Free throw rate	22.8 #27
Possessions
16.4 #21	Turnover rate	15.2 #15
27.5 #15	Offensive rebound rate	28.3 #11
26.8 #14	Assists per game	27.5 #8
Defense
115.2 #18	Points allowed	124.5 #27
1.12 #20	Points allowed per possession	1.21 #30
54.2 #20	Opponent effective FG%	58.7 #29
35.0 #15	Opponent 3-point %	43.9 #30
15.9 #11	Turnovers forced	17.1 #7
70.5 #22	Defensive rebound rate	65.1 #30
10.2 #5	Steals per game	9.0 #15
4.4 #18	Blocks per game	5.3 #10

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Nuggets

3-2 overall · 3-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Suns127–120
W@ Pelicans104–91
Lvs Warriors114–134
Wvs Pelicans141–135
L@ Thunder84–96

A week or more of rest.

Suns

1-3 overall · 1-3 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs Nuggets120–127
L@ Thunder114–125
Wvs Warriors131–122
L@ Trail Blazers83–124

A week or more of rest.

Nuggets @ Suns

What could decide it: DEN has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Nuggets

Suns

Nuggets has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Nuggets

Suns