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NBA · Mon, Mar 29

Warriors @ Nets

Barclays Center · at Nets
#13GSWarriors
@
#27BKNNets
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
GSThis seasonBKN
4-3Record1-5
5-2ATS3-3
4-3O/U3-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects GS 118–110 · win probability GS 71%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 227.6
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: GS has more of the edges

GS 7, BKN 1 · 2026-27 so far
GSBig
BKN offense vs GS defense
Offense 29th of 30 against a defense 14th, on the model’s ratings
GSBig
GS offense vs BKN defense
Offense 9th of 30 against a defense 22nd, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
GS has played the 6th-hardest schedule, BKN the 19th. A record against a soft schedule means less
GSSmall
Three-pointers
GS hits 40.0% and allows 35.2%; BKN hits 35.1% and allows 35.8%. Threes are 47.1% and 48.0% of their shots
GSSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: GS 55.3 and allows 56.0; BKN 50.7 and allows 55.3
Context
Tempo
About 103 possessions: GS plays 101.4 a game (25th fastest), BKN 105.1 (10th). Faster games mean more points
GSSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: GS 16.7%, BKN 18.2%. Forced: GS 17.6%, BKN 15.9%
GSSmall
Recent form
Last 5: GS 5-0 ATS, margin +9.0; BKN 3-2 ATS, margin -8.0
BKNSmall
Home court
BKN at home. This season: BKN 0-3 at home, GS 2-2 away
GSSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: GS 28.8, BKN 32.9. Allowed: GS 27.3, BKN 33.5
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: GS 33.2%, BKN 25.4%. Defensive: GS 70.4%, BKN 77.8%
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: GS 100%, BKN 100%. Transfers in: GS 0, BKN 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market vs model

The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edge
Spread
Market—
ModelGS -7.8
Model edge—
Total
Market—
Model227.6
Model edge—
Projected score
GS 117.7 · BKN 109.9
Win probability
GS 71%
1st half
Spread
GS -4.6
Total
114.0
Projected score
GS 59.3 · BKN 54.7
Model edge = where the model differs from the market, in points: a reason to look, not a trend. The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. Model record › · 1st-half slate ›

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Warriors has the better starters

Position by position: Warriors 3, Nets 1, even 1
WarriorsBetterNets
G B. Podziemski16.4 pts · 5.4 reb · 5.6 ast Score 72
GSBig
G K. Ellis5 pts · 2 reb · 2.3 ast Score 21
G D. Melton11.9 pts · 4.1 reb · 2.3 ast Score 62
GSBig
G N. Traore10.5 pts · 1.8 reb · 2.7 ast Score 1
G B. Williams11.6 pts · 2.9 reb · 2.4 ast Score 5
BKNSmall
F J. Randle20.8 pts · 7.2 reb · 5.3 ast Score 39
F Y. Lendeborg22.3 pts · 7.3 reb · 3.7 ast Score 78
Even
F M. Porter21.2 pts · 7.3 reb · 1.3 ast Score 91
F G. Niang6.4 pts · 2.9 reb · 1.3 ast Score 72
GSBig
C D. Sharpe8 pts · 7.7 reb · 1.7 ast Score 6
WarriorsBetterNets
GS offense9th of 30 · +1.9
GSBig
BKN defense22nd of 30 · -1.7
GS defense14th of 30 · +0.3
GSBig
BKN offense29th of 30 · -5.5
Backcourt+5.3 · 3 players
GSBig
Backcourt-12.0 · 2 players
Frontcourt+12.0 · 2 players
GSBig
Frontcourt+7.8 · 3 players
Bench+5.4 · 5 players
GSBig
Bench-17.9 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestGS betterBKN betterNEW no NBA numbers yet
Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Warriors
Guards
B. Podziemski34 minD. Melton22 minB. Williams17 minW. Richard16 minL. Cryer16 minG. Payton13 min
Forwards
Y. Lendeborg32 minG. Niang20 minG. Ike12 minM. Leons11 min
Centers
A. Horford19 minC. Bassey9 min
Out
S. CurryDay-To-DayG. SantosOutD. GreenDay-To-Day
Nets
Guards
K. Ellis24 minN. Traore21 minT. Mann24 minD. Powell21 minB. Saraf21 min
Forwards
J. Randle34 minM. Porter32 minC. Johnson22 minN. Clowney22 minD. Wolf21 minJ. Minott11 min
Centers
D. Sharpe23 minM. Wagner19 min
Out
M. BrownDay-To-DayE. DeminOut
In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
GSBKN
Scoring
117.7 #11Points per game108.2 #25
1.17 #3Points per possession1.03 #29
101.4 #25Pace (possessions)105.1 #10
Shooting
55.3 #8Effective FG%50.7 #26
40.0 #23-point %35.1 #15
47.1 #53-point attempt rate48.0 #3
28.8 #15Free throw rate32.9 #6
Possessions
16.7 #22Turnover rate18.2 #27
33.2 #1Offensive rebound rate25.4 #23
27.4 #10Assists per game22.8 #28
Defense
114.9 #16Points allowed116.0 #21
1.13 #21Points allowed per possession1.11 #18
56.0 #25Opponent effective FG%55.3 #23
35.2 #16Opponent 3-point %35.8 #19
17.6 #5Turnovers forced15.9 #12
70.4 #23Defensive rebound rate77.8 #2
9.1 #11Steals per game9.0 #14
4.1 #24Blocks per game4.7 #17
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Warriors

4-3 overall · 4-3 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27
  • Wvs Clippers124–112
  • Wvs Lakers112–95
  • W@ Timberwolves119–114
  • W@ Nuggets134–114
  • L@ Suns122–131

A week or more of rest.

Nets

1-5 overall · 1-5 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27
  • W@ Pacers98–90
  • Lvs Pistons94–110
  • L@ Celtics124–125
  • Lvs Pacers109–136
  • L@ Cavaliers121–125

A week or more of rest.