Golden State Warriors at Philadelphia 76ers: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Mar 31, 7:00 PM ETXfinity Mobile Arena · at 76ers

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Warriors and 76ers
GS	This season	PHI
4-3	Record	6-1
5-2	ATS	4-3
4-3	O/U	2-5

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects PHI 114–112 · win probability PHI 54%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 226.0

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: GS has more of the edges

GS 4, PHI 2 · 2026-27 so far

Context

Schedule so far

GS has played the 6th-hardest schedule, PHI the 20th. A record against a soft schedule means less

GSBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: GS 33.2%, PHI 19.9%. Defensive: GS 70.4%, PHI 70.8%

GSBig

Recent form

Last 5: GS 5-0 ATS, margin +9.0; PHI 2-3 ATS, margin +2.6

PHISmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: GS 16.7%, PHI 12.3%. Forced: GS 17.6%, PHI 17.0%

GSSmall

PHI offense vs GS defense

Offense 22nd of 30 against a defense 14th, on the model’s ratings

GSSmall

Three-pointers

GS hits 40.0% and allows 35.2%; PHI hits 34.0% and allows 32.1%. Threes are 47.1% and 39.5% of their shots

PHISmall

Home court

PHI at home. This season: PHI 3-1 at home, GS 2-2 away

Context

Tempo

About 102 possessions: GS plays 101.4 a game (25th fastest), PHI 102.4 (19th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: GS 28.8, PHI 28.7. Allowed: GS 27.3, PHI 28.5

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: GS 55.3 and allows 56.0; PHI 50.8 and allows 49.8

Even

GS offense vs PHI defense

Offense 9th of 30 against a defense 10th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: GS 100%, PHI 100%. Transfers in: GS 0, PHI 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
GS WWWWW	5-2	71%	3-1	—
PHI LLLWW	4-3	57%	2-2	—

Venue/role: GS away; PHI home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
GS OOOUO	4-3	57%	4-3
PHI OUUUO	2-5	29%	6-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
GSlast 7	4-3 57%	5-2 71%	4-3 57%
PHIlast 7	6-1 86%	4-3 57%	2-5 29%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Warriors

Date	Game	Last meeting
Apr 2	@ MIN	W119–114WO
Apr 4	@ SAC	L118–124LO
Apr 6	vs PHX	L122–131WO

76ers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Apr 2	@ WSH	W153–131WO
Apr 4	vs ATL	L116–125LO
Apr 6	@ TOR	W115–102WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

GS 5–5 PHISeries tied · 10 games since 2021-22 · PHI has won the last 3 meetings · GS 6-4 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Feb 3, 2025-26	PHI 113 @ GS 94	GS -4.5	PHI W
Dec 4, 2025-26	GS 98 @ PHI 99	PHI -4.5	GS W
Mar 1, 2024-25	GS 119 @ PHI 126	PHI +6.5	PHI W
Jan 2, 2024-25	PHI 105 @ GS 139	GS -3.5	GS W
Feb 7, 2023-24	GS 127 @ PHI 104	PHI +3.5	GS W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Warriors

7 games played

Straight up

4-3

57% wins

Against the spread

5-2

71% covers · avg +6.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-3

57% overs · avg +2.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-357%

L L L W W W W

4 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

5-271%

L L W W W W W

5 straight covers4 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

4-357%

U U O O O U O

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@LAL	L 105-127	+6.5	L −15.5	233.5	U 232
Oct 23	vsMEM	L 108-111	-4.5	L −7.5	236.5	U 219
Oct 24	@PHX	L 122-131	+9.5	W +0.5	221.5	O 253
Oct 26	@DEN	W 134-114	+6.5	W +26.5	236.5	O 248
Oct 28	@MIN	W 119-114	+3.5	W +8.5	227.5	O 233
Oct 30	vsLAL	W 112-95	+2.5	W +19.5	234.5	U 207
Nov 1	vsLAC	W 124-112	-1.5	W +10.5	220.5	O 236

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

LAL

L 105-127

−15.5

MEM

L 108-111

−7.5

PHX

L 122-131

+0.5

DEN

W 134-114

+26.5

MIN

W 119-114

+8.5

LAL

W 112-95

+19.5

LAC

W 124-112

+10.5

covered 5didn’t cover 2avg +6.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

LAL

L 105-127

−1.5

MEM

L 108-111

−17.5

PHX

L 122-131

+31.5

DEN

W 134-114

+11.5

MIN

W 119-114

+5.5

LAL

W 112-95

−27.5

LAC

W 124-112

+15.5

over 4under 3avg +2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

76ers

7 games played

Straight up

6-1

86% wins

Against the spread

4-3

57% covers · avg +0.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-5

29% overs · avg −15.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

6-186%

W W W L W W W

3 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

4-357%

W W L L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-529%

U U O U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 20	@NY	W 106-100	+4.5	W +10.5	231.5	U 206
Oct 22	vsCLE	W 114-106	-2.5	W +5.5	237.5	U 220
Oct 24	vsMIL	W 127-116	-12.5	L −1.5	234.5	O 243
Oct 25	vsDET	L 93-106	+1.5	L −11.5	228.5	U 199
Oct 28	@IND	W 114-109	-7.5	L −2.5	234.5	U 223
Oct 30	vsNY	W 98-93	-2.5	W +2.5	224.5	U 191
Oct 31	@CHA	W 109-104	-1.5	W +3.5	211.5	O 213

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 106-100

+10.5

CLE

W 114-106

+5.5

MIL

W 127-116

−1.5

DET

L 93-106

−11.5

IND

W 114-109

−2.5

W 98-93

+2.5

CHA

W 109-104

+3.5

covered 4didn’t cover 3avg +0.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 106-100

−25.5

CLE

W 114-106

−17.5

MIL

W 127-116

+8.5

DET

L 93-106

−29.5

IND

W 114-109

−11.5

W 98-93

−33.5

CHA

W 109-104

+1.5

over 2under 5avg −15.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: Warriors 2, 76ers 2, even 1

WarriorsBetter76ers

G B. Podziemski16.4 pts · 5.4 reb · 5.6 ast Score 72

Even

G T. Maxey29.6 pts · 4.1 reb · 4.4 ast Score 67

G D. Melton11.9 pts · 4.1 reb · 2.3 ast Score 62

GSSmall

G J. Brown19.8 pts · 6.2 reb · 4.2 ast Score 35

G B. Williams11.6 pts · 2.9 reb · 2.4 ast Score 5

PHIBig

G V. Edgecombe11.3 pts · 7.8 reb · 2.7 ast Score 96

F Y. Lendeborg22.3 pts · 7.3 reb · 3.7 ast Score 78

GSSmall

F L. James16.4 pts · 7 reb · 7 ast Score 54

F G. Niang6.4 pts · 2.9 reb · 1.3 ast Score 72

PHISmall

F D. Wade3.6 pts · 3 reb · 2.6 ast Score 90

WarriorsBetter76ers

GS offense9th of 30 · +1.9

Even

PHI defense10th of 30 · +3.0

GS defense14th of 30 · +0.3

GSSmall

PHI offense22nd of 30 · -1.7

Backcourt+5.3 · 3 players

PHIBig

Backcourt+25.4 · 3 players

Frontcourt+12.0 · 2 players

PHISmall

Frontcourt+14.0 · 2 players

Bench+5.4 · 5 players

GSBig

Bench-19.8 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestGS betterPHI betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Warriors

Guards

B. Podziemski34 minD. Melton22 minB. Williams17 minW. Richard16 minL. Cryer16 minG. Payton13 min

Forwards

Y. Lendeborg32 minG. Niang20 minG. Ike12 minM. Leons11 min

Centers

A. Horford19 minC. Bassey9 min

Out

S. CurryDay-To-DayG. SantosOutD. GreenDay-To-Day

76ers

Guards

T. Maxey38 minJ. Brown37 minV. Edgecombe33 minA. Simons25 minK. Caldwell-Pope24 minC. Love21 min

Forwards

L. James33 minD. Wade28 minJ. Edwards15 minJ. Walker10 min

Centers

A. Bona14 minT. FallNew

Out

J. EmbiidDay-To-Day

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

GS117.7 #11

PHI108.7 #23

Points per possession

GS1.17 #3

PHI1.06 #22

Pace (possessions)

GS101.4 #25

PHI102.4 #19

Shooting

Effective FG%

GS55.3 #8

PHI50.8 #25

3-point %

GS40.0 #2

PHI34.0 #20

3-point attempt rate

GS47.1 #5

PHI39.5 #23

Free throw rate

GS28.8 #15

PHI28.7 #16

Possessions

Turnover rate

GS16.7 #22

PHI12.3 #1

Offensive rebound rate

GS33.2 #1

PHI19.9 #30

Assists per game

GS27.4 #10

PHI25.1 #22

Defense

Points allowed

GS114.9 #16

PHI104.9 #2

Points allowed per possession

GS1.13 #21

PHI1.03 #3

Opponent effective FG%

GS56.0 #25

PHI49.8 #4

Opponent 3-point %

GS35.2 #16

PHI32.1 #9

Turnovers forced

GS17.6 #5

PHI17.0 #9

Defensive rebound rate

GS70.4 #23

PHI70.8 #21

Steals per game

GS9.1 #11

PHI9.6 #7

Blocks per game

GS4.1 #24

PHI5.0 #14

GS		PHI
Scoring
117.7 #11	Points per game	108.7 #23
1.17 #3	Points per possession	1.06 #22
101.4 #25	Pace (possessions)	102.4 #19
Shooting
55.3 #8	Effective FG%	50.8 #25
40.0 #2	3-point %	34.0 #20
47.1 #5	3-point attempt rate	39.5 #23
28.8 #15	Free throw rate	28.7 #16
Possessions
16.7 #22	Turnover rate	12.3 #1
33.2 #1	Offensive rebound rate	19.9 #30
27.4 #10	Assists per game	25.1 #22
Defense
114.9 #16	Points allowed	104.9 #2
1.13 #21	Points allowed per possession	1.03 #3
56.0 #25	Opponent effective FG%	49.8 #4
35.2 #16	Opponent 3-point %	32.1 #9
17.6 #5	Turnovers forced	17.0 #9
70.4 #23	Defensive rebound rate	70.8 #21
9.1 #11	Steals per game	9.6 #7
4.1 #24	Blocks per game	5.0 #14

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Warriors

4-3 overall · 4-3 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Clippers124–112
Wvs Lakers112–95
W@ Timberwolves119–114
W@ Nuggets134–114
L@ Suns122–131

A week or more of rest.

76ers

6-1 overall · 6-1 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Hornets109–104
Wvs Knicks98–93
W@ Pacers114–109
Lvs Pistons93–106
Wvs Bucks127–116

A week or more of rest.

Warriors @ 76ers

What could decide it: GS has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Warriors

76ers

The starting fives are even

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Warriors

76ers