Chicago Bulls at Washington Wizards: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Mar 31, 7:00 PM ETCapital One Arena · at Wizards · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Bulls and Wizards
CHI	This season	WSH
1-5	Record	3-3
3-3	ATS	3-3
2-4	O/U	1-5

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects WSH 123–116 · win probability WSH 67%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 238.9

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: WSH has more of the edges

CHI 2, WSH 5 · 2026-27 so far

WSHBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: CHI 48.2 and allows 56.0; WSH 52.1 and allows 48.1

WSHBig

Three-pointers

CHI hits 28.1% and allows 39.3%; WSH hits 29.3% and allows 28.7%. Threes are 47.9% and 37.6% of their shots

CHIBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: CHI 29.2%, WSH 20.9%. Defensive: CHI 69.8%, WSH 68.0%

Context

Schedule so far

CHI has played the 14th-hardest schedule, WSH the 26th. A record against a soft schedule means less

CHIBig

CHI offense vs WSH defense

Offense 12th of 30 against a defense 23rd, on the model’s ratings

WSHBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: CHI 38.3, WSH 34.2. Allowed: CHI 33.5, WSH 21.8

Context

Tempo

About 106 possessions: CHI plays 109.8 a game (1st fastest), WSH 102.3 (20th). Faster games mean more points

WSHSmall

WSH offense vs CHI defense

Offense 25th of 30 against a defense 30th, on the model’s ratings

WSHSmall

Home court

WSH at home. This season: WSH 2-1 at home, CHI 1-3 away

Even

Recent form

Last 5: CHI 3-2 ATS, margin -10.4; WSH 2-3 ATS, margin -1.4

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: CHI 16.2%, WSH 14.6%. Forced: CHI 14.7%, WSH 13.3%

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: CHI 100%, WSH 100%. Transfers in: CHI 0, WSH 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CHI WLLWW	3-3	50%	2-2	—
WSH LWLLW	3-3	50%	2-1	—

Venue/role: CHI away; WSH home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
CHI OUUOU	2-4	33%	1-5
WSH UUUUU	1-5	17%	3-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CHIlast 6	1-5 17%	3-3 50%	2-4 33%
WSHlast 6	3-3 50%	3-3 50%	1-5 17%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Bulls

Date	Game	Last meeting
Apr 2	vs DET	L110–126LO
Apr 4	@ HOU	W132–124WO
Apr 6	@ MIL	W132–125WO

Wizards

Date	Game	Last meeting
Apr 2	vs PHI	L131–153LO
Apr 3	@ ORL	L131–136WO
Apr 5	@ NO	L118–138LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 18 since 2021-22

CHI 13–5 WSHCHI leads · 18 games since 2021-22 · CHI 11-7 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Oct 24, 2026-27	WSH 124 @ CHI 120	CHI -1.5	WSH W
Apr 9, 2025-26	CHI 119 @ WSH 108	WSH +6.5	CHI W
Apr 7, 2025-26	CHI 129 @ WSH 98	WSH +5.5	CHI W
Nov 22, 2025-26	WSH 120 @ CHI 121	CHI -12.5	WSH W
Apr 11, 2024-25	WSH 89 @ CHI 119	CHI -13.5	CHI W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Bulls

6 games played

Straight up

1-5

17% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg −8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg +5 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-517%

L W L L L L

4 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

L W L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-433%

U O U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@TOR	L 92-135	+10.5	L −32.5	237.5	U 227
Oct 23	@MIL	W 132-125	+1.5	W +8.5	241.5	O 257
Oct 24	vsWSH	L 120-124	-1.5	L −5.5	244.5	U 244
Oct 26	@BOS	L 99-134	+14.5	L −20.5	233.5	U 233
Oct 28	vsNY	L 127-133	+7.5	W +1.5	233.5	O 260
Oct 30	@BOS	L 111-125	+14.5	W +0.5	236.5	U 236

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

TOR

L 92-135

−32.5

MIL

W 132-125

+8.5

WSH

L 120-124

−5.5

BOS

L 99-134

−20.5

L 127-133

+1.5

BOS

L 111-125

+0.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg −8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

TOR

L 92-135

−10.5

MIL

W 132-125

+15.5

WSH

L 120-124

−0.5

BOS

L 99-134

−0.5

L 127-133

+26.5

BOS

L 111-125

−0.5

over 2under 4avg +5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Wizards

6 games played

Straight up

3-3

50% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg +3.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-5

17% overs · avg −14 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-350%

W L W L L W

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-350%

W L W L L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

1-517%

O U U U U U

5 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsMIL	W 128-116	-4.5	W +7.5	239.5	O 244
Oct 23	vsTOR	L 102-112	+9.5	L −0.5	236.5	U 214
Oct 24	@CHI	W 124-120	+1.5	W +5.5	244.5	U 244
Oct 26	@CHA	L 103-110	+2.5	L −4.5	225.5	U 213
Oct 28	@CLE	L 111-121	+9.5	L −0.5	240.5	U 232
Oct 30	vsCHA	W 95-79	-1.5	W +14.5	218.5	U 174

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MIL

W 128-116

+7.5

TOR

L 102-112

−0.5

CHI

W 124-120

+5.5

CHA

L 103-110

−4.5

CLE

L 111-121

−0.5

CHA

W 95-79

+14.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg +3.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MIL

W 128-116

+4.5

TOR

L 102-112

−22.5

CHI

W 124-120

−0.5

CHA

L 103-110

−12.5

CLE

L 111-121

−8.5

CHA

W 95-79

−44.5

over 1under 5avg −14 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: Bulls 2, Wizards 2, even 1

BullsBetterWizards

G N. Powell20.7 pts · 2.7 reb · 2 ast Score 71

CHIBig

G T. Young20.7 pts · 3.8 reb · 10.2 ast Score 23

G J. Giddey8.5 pts · 5.3 reb · 7.5 ast Score 29

CHISmall

G B. Coulibaly8.3 pts · 4 reb · 0.5 ast Score 4

F C. Wilson21.2 pts · 6.7 reb · 2.5 ast Score 6

WSHBig

F A. Davis22.3 pts · 9.2 reb · 2 ast Score 86

F M. Buzelis14.5 pts · 4.5 reb · 1.8 ast Score 4

WSHSmall

F K. George15.2 pts · 4.3 reb · 4.5 ast Score 36

F P. Williams7 pts · 3 reb · 1.5 ast Score 19

No call

F A. Dybantsa18 pts · 5 reb · 1.5 ast Not ranked

BullsBetterWizards

CHI offense12th of 30 · +1.2

CHIBig

WSH defense23rd of 30 · -2.9

CHI defense30th of 30 · -9.4

WSHSmall

WSH offense25th of 30 · -2.5

Backcourt+5.1 · 2 players

CHIBig

Backcourt-12.8 · 2 players

Frontcourt-24.0 · 3 players

WSHBig

Frontcourt+11.5 · 3 players

Bench-6.9 · 5 players

CHIBig

Bench-14.5 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestCHI betterWSH betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Bulls

Guards

N. Powell30 minJ. Giddey27 minT. Jones18 minB. Hield14 minJ. Hawkins14 minD. Swain12 min

Forwards

C. Wilson34 minM. Buzelis25 minP. Williams21 minL. Miller19 minZ. Collins18 minI. Okoro18 min

Out

J. SmithDay-To-DayT. AwakaDay-To-Day

Wizards

Guards

T. Young36 minB. Coulibaly26 minW. Riley22 minT. Johnson21 minB. Carrington20 minT. Mann13 min

Forwards

A. Davis34 minK. George32 minA. Dybantsa29 minK. Middleton14 minF. Okpara1 min

Centers

D. Ayton14 min

Out

A. GillDay-To-DayJ. ChampagnieOutA. SarrDay-To-Day

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

CHI113.5 #16

WSH110.5 #20

Points per possession

CHI1.04 #26

WSH1.08 #19

Pace (possessions)

CHI109.8 #1

WSH102.3 #20

Shooting

Effective FG%

CHI48.2 #30

WSH52.1 #20

3-point %

CHI28.1 #30

WSH29.3 #29

3-point attempt rate

CHI47.9 #4

WSH37.6 #28

Free throw rate

CHI38.3 #1

WSH34.2 #5

Possessions

Turnover rate

CHI16.2 #20

WSH14.6 #8

Offensive rebound rate

CHI29.2 #9

WSH20.9 #29

Assists per game

CHI24.3 #25

WSH24.5 #24

Defense

Points allowed

CHI129.3 #30

WSH109.7 #11

Points allowed per possession

CHI1.17 #27

WSH1.07 #11

Opponent effective FG%

CHI56.0 #26

WSH48.1 #1

Opponent 3-point %

CHI39.3 #28

WSH28.7 #1

Turnovers forced

CHI14.7 #21

WSH13.3 #27

Defensive rebound rate

CHI69.8 #24

WSH68.0 #28

Steals per game

CHI8.7 #17

WSH7.2 #24

Blocks per game

CHI5.0 #12

WSH5.3 #9

CHI		WSH
Scoring
113.5 #16	Points per game	110.5 #20
1.04 #26	Points per possession	1.08 #19
109.8 #1	Pace (possessions)	102.3 #20
Shooting
48.2 #30	Effective FG%	52.1 #20
28.1 #30	3-point %	29.3 #29
47.9 #4	3-point attempt rate	37.6 #28
38.3 #1	Free throw rate	34.2 #5
Possessions
16.2 #20	Turnover rate	14.6 #8
29.2 #9	Offensive rebound rate	20.9 #29
24.3 #25	Assists per game	24.5 #24
Defense
129.3 #30	Points allowed	109.7 #11
1.17 #27	Points allowed per possession	1.07 #11
56.0 #26	Opponent effective FG%	48.1 #1
39.3 #28	Opponent 3-point %	28.7 #1
14.7 #21	Turnovers forced	13.3 #27
69.8 #24	Defensive rebound rate	68.0 #28
8.7 #17	Steals per game	7.2 #24
5.0 #12	Blocks per game	5.3 #9

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Bulls

1-5 overall · 1-5 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Celtics111–125
Lvs Knicks127–133
L@ Celtics99–134
Lvs Wizards120–124
W@ Bucks132–125

A week or more of rest.

Wizards

3-3 overall · 3-3 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Hornets95–79
L@ Cavaliers111–121
L@ Hornets103–110
W@ Bulls124–120
Lvs Raptors102–112

A week or more of rest.

Bulls @ Wizards

What could decide it: WSH has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Bulls

Wizards

The starting fives are even

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Bulls

Wizards