Atlanta Hawks at Philadelphia 76ers: Model Line and Edge

Sun, Apr 4, 1:00 PM ETXfinity Mobile Arena · at 76ers · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Hawks and 76ers
ATL	This season	PHI
3-4	Record	6-1
3-4	ATS	4-3
4-3	O/U	2-5

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects PHI 114–112 · win probability PHI 54%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 225.8

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: PHI has more of the edges

ATL 2, PHI 3 · 2026-27 so far

Context

Schedule so far

ATL has played the 9th-hardest schedule, PHI the 20th. A record against a soft schedule means less

PHIBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: ATL 23.4, PHI 28.7. Allowed: ATL 32.1, PHI 28.5

ATLSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: ATL 27.1%, PHI 19.9%. Defensive: ATL 70.9%, PHI 70.8%

Context

Tempo

About 104 possessions: ATL plays 105.6 a game (7th fastest), PHI 102.4 (19th). Faster games mean more points

PHISmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: ATL 52.6 and allows 54.5; PHI 50.8 and allows 49.8

PHISmall

Home court

PHI at home. This season: PHI 3-1 at home, ATL 2-2 away

ATLSmall

PHI offense vs ATL defense

Offense 22nd of 30 against a defense 18th, on the model’s ratings

Even

ATL offense vs PHI defense

Offense 7th of 30 against a defense 10th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Recent form

Last 5: ATL 1-4 ATS, margin -9.6; PHI 2-3 ATS, margin +2.6

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: ATL 13.8%, PHI 12.3%. Forced: ATL 18.3%, PHI 17.0%

Even

Three-pointers

ATL hits 32.8% and allows 31.9%; PHI hits 34.0% and allows 32.1%. Threes are 44.7% and 39.5% of their shots

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: ATL 100%, PHI 100%. Transfers in: ATL 0, PHI 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ATL LLLWL	3-4	43%	2-2	—
PHI LLLWW	4-3	57%	2-2	—

Venue/role: ATL away; PHI home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
ATL OOOUU	4-3	57%	3-4
PHI OUUUO	2-5	29%	6-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ATLlast 7	3-4 43%	3-4 43%	4-3 57%
PHIlast 7	6-1 86%	4-3 57%	2-5 29%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Hawks

Date	Game	Last meeting
Apr 6	vs NY	L89–140LO
Apr 9	vs BOS	W112–102WU
Apr 11	@ CLE	W114–111WU

76ers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Apr 6	@ TOR	W115–102WU
Apr 8	@ MIA	L109–119LU
Apr 11	vs CHA	W109–104WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 18 since 2021-22

ATL 11–7 PHIATL leads · 18 games since 2021-22 · ATL has won the last 9 meetings · ATL 9-8-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 7, 2025-26	PHI 116 @ ATL 125	ATL -6.5	ATL W
Feb 19, 2025-26	ATL 117 @ PHI 107	PHI -1.5	ATL W
Dec 14, 2025-26	PHI 117 @ ATL 120	ATL -4.5	PHI W
Nov 30, 2025-26	ATL 142 @ PHI 134	PHI -2.5	ATL W
Apr 11, 2024-25	ATL 124 @ PHI 110	PHI +11.5	ATL W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Hawks

7 games played

Straight up

3-4

43% wins

Against the spread

3-4

43% covers · avg +0.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-3

57% overs · avg −2.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-443%

W W L L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-443%

W W L L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

4-357%

O U O O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@ORL	W 132-125	+2.5	W +9.5	233.5	O 257
Oct 23	@CHA	W 128-81	-2.5	W +44.5	226.5	U 209
Oct 24	vsHOU	L 114-121	+1.5	L −5.5	227.5	O 235
Oct 26	@HOU	L 110-120	+4.5	L −5.5	228.5	O 230
Oct 28	vsMIA	L 117-129	-2.5	L −14.5	243.5	O 246
Oct 29	vsCLE	W 114-111	-1.5	W +1.5	237.5	U 225
Oct 31	@NO	L 99-121	-5.5	L −27.5	239.5	U 220

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

ORL

W 132-125

+9.5

CHA

W 128-81

+44.5

HOU

L 114-121

−5.5

HOU

L 110-120

−5.5

MIA

L 117-129

−14.5

CLE

W 114-111

+1.5

L 99-121

−27.5

covered 3didn’t cover 4avg +0.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

ORL

W 132-125

+23.5

CHA

W 128-81

−17.5

HOU

L 114-121

+7.5

HOU

L 110-120

+1.5

MIA

L 117-129

+2.5

CLE

W 114-111

−12.5

L 99-121

−19.5

over 4under 3avg −2.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

76ers

7 games played

Straight up

6-1

86% wins

Against the spread

4-3

57% covers · avg +0.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-5

29% overs · avg −15.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

6-186%

W W W L W W W

3 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

4-357%

W W L L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-529%

U U O U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 20	@NY	W 106-100	+4.5	W +10.5	231.5	U 206
Oct 22	vsCLE	W 114-106	-2.5	W +5.5	237.5	U 220
Oct 24	vsMIL	W 127-116	-12.5	L −1.5	234.5	O 243
Oct 25	vsDET	L 93-106	+1.5	L −11.5	228.5	U 199
Oct 28	@IND	W 114-109	-7.5	L −2.5	234.5	U 223
Oct 30	vsNY	W 98-93	-2.5	W +2.5	224.5	U 191
Oct 31	@CHA	W 109-104	-1.5	W +3.5	211.5	O 213

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 106-100

+10.5

CLE

W 114-106

+5.5

MIL

W 127-116

−1.5

DET

L 93-106

−11.5

IND

W 114-109

−2.5

W 98-93

+2.5

CHA

W 109-104

+3.5

covered 4didn’t cover 3avg +0.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 106-100

−25.5

CLE

W 114-106

−17.5

MIL

W 127-116

+8.5

DET

L 93-106

−29.5

IND

W 114-109

−11.5

W 98-93

−33.5

CHA

W 109-104

+1.5

over 2under 5avg −15.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: Hawks 2, 76ers 2, even 1

HawksBetter76ers

G N. Alexander-Walker19.3 pts · 3.1 reb · 2.6 ast Score 67

Even

G T. Maxey29.6 pts · 4.1 reb · 4.4 ast Score 67

G D. Daniels10.3 pts · 5 reb · 4.1 ast Score 87

ATLBig

G J. Brown19.8 pts · 6.2 reb · 4.2 ast Score 35

G C. McCollum14.4 pts · 1.9 reb · 2.9 ast Score 59

PHIBig

G V. Edgecombe11.3 pts · 7.8 reb · 2.7 ast Score 96

G A. Wiggins14.7 pts · 3.7 reb · 1.9 ast Score 78

ATLSmall

F L. James16.4 pts · 7 reb · 7 ast Score 54

F O. Okongwu11.9 pts · 7.1 reb · 2.6 ast Score 30

PHIBig

F D. Wade3.6 pts · 3 reb · 2.6 ast Score 90

HawksBetter76ers

ATL offense7th of 30 · +2.5

Even

PHI defense10th of 30 · +3.0

ATL defense18th of 30 · -0.6

Even

PHI offense22nd of 30 · -1.7

Backcourt+27.7 · 4 players

ATLSmall

Backcourt+25.4 · 3 players

Frontcourt-1.3 · 1 player

PHIBig

Frontcourt+14.0 · 2 players

Bench-4.0 · 5 players

ATLBig

Bench-19.8 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestATL betterPHI betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Hawks

Guards

N. Alexander-Walker30 minD. Daniels29 minC. McCollum26 minA. Wiggins26 minL. Dort24 min

Forwards

O. Okongwu28 minC. Kispert18 minD. Finney-Smith16 minA. Newell11 minZ. Ejiofor5 min

Out

J. LandaleOutJ. JohnsonDay-To-DayK. FlemingsSuspension

76ers

Guards

T. Maxey38 minJ. Brown37 minV. Edgecombe33 minA. Simons25 minK. Caldwell-Pope24 minC. Love21 min

Forwards

L. James33 minD. Wade28 minJ. Edwards15 minJ. Walker10 min

Centers

A. Bona14 minT. FallNew

Out

J. EmbiidDay-To-Day

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

ATL116.3 #13

PHI108.7 #23

Points per possession

ATL1.10 #16

PHI1.06 #22

Pace (possessions)

ATL105.6 #7

PHI102.4 #19

Shooting

Effective FG%

ATL52.6 #19

PHI50.8 #25

3-point %

ATL32.8 #22

PHI34.0 #20

3-point attempt rate

ATL44.7 #11

PHI39.5 #23

Free throw rate

ATL23.4 #26

PHI28.7 #16

Possessions

Turnover rate

ATL13.8 #4

PHI12.3 #1

Offensive rebound rate

ATL27.1 #18

PHI19.9 #30

Assists per game

ATL30.7 #1

PHI25.1 #22

Defense

Points allowed

ATL115.4 #19

PHI104.9 #2

Points allowed per possession

ATL1.10 #17

PHI1.03 #3

Opponent effective FG%

ATL54.5 #22

PHI49.8 #4

Opponent 3-point %

ATL31.9 #7

PHI32.1 #9

Turnovers forced

ATL18.3 #2

PHI17.0 #9

Defensive rebound rate

ATL70.9 #19

PHI70.8 #21

Steals per game

ATL9.4 #8

PHI9.6 #7

Blocks per game

ATL3.7 #29

PHI5.0 #14

ATL		PHI
Scoring
116.3 #13	Points per game	108.7 #23
1.10 #16	Points per possession	1.06 #22
105.6 #7	Pace (possessions)	102.4 #19
Shooting
52.6 #19	Effective FG%	50.8 #25
32.8 #22	3-point %	34.0 #20
44.7 #11	3-point attempt rate	39.5 #23
23.4 #26	Free throw rate	28.7 #16
Possessions
13.8 #4	Turnover rate	12.3 #1
27.1 #18	Offensive rebound rate	19.9 #30
30.7 #1	Assists per game	25.1 #22
Defense
115.4 #19	Points allowed	104.9 #2
1.10 #17	Points allowed per possession	1.03 #3
54.5 #22	Opponent effective FG%	49.8 #4
31.9 #7	Opponent 3-point %	32.1 #9
18.3 #2	Turnovers forced	17.0 #9
70.9 #19	Defensive rebound rate	70.8 #21
9.4 #8	Steals per game	9.6 #7
3.7 #29	Blocks per game	5.0 #14

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Hawks

3-4 overall · 3-1 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Pelicans99–121
Wvs Cavaliers114–111
Lvs Heat117–129
L@ Rockets110–120
Lvs Rockets114–121

A week or more of rest.

76ers

6-1 overall · 6-1 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Hornets109–104
Wvs Knicks98–93
W@ Pacers114–109
Lvs Pistons93–106
Wvs Bucks127–116

A week or more of rest.

Hawks @ 76ers

What could decide it: PHI has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Hawks

76ers

The starting fives are even

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Hawks

76ers