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NBA · Sun, Mar 28

Lakers @ Rockets

Toyota Center (Houston) · at Rockets · Conference game
#10LALLakers
@
#1HOURockets
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
LALThis seasonHOU
5-2Record6-1
4-3ATS6-1
4-3O/U5-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects HOU 118–111 · win probability HOU 69%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 229.6
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: HOU has more of the edges

LAL 0, HOU 4 · 2026-27 so far
HOUBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: LAL 26.8%, HOU 32.4%. Defensive: LAL 67.4%, HOU 73.2%
HOUBig
HOU offense vs LAL defense
Offense 6th of 30 against a defense 17th, on the model’s ratings
HOUBig
Three-pointers
LAL hits 38.9% and allows 36.7%; HOU hits 39.0% and allows 30.2%. Threes are 45.7% and 38.1% of their shots
HOUSmall
Home court
HOU at home. This season: HOU 3-0 at home, LAL 2-1 away
Context
Schedule so far
LAL has played the 16th-hardest schedule, HOU the 12th. A record against a soft schedule means less
Context
Tempo
About 102 possessions: LAL plays 102.9 a game (17th fastest), HOU 101.6 (24th). Faster games mean more points
Even
Recent form
Last 5: LAL 3-2 ATS, margin +1.4; HOU 4-1 ATS, margin +13.0
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: LAL 37.2, HOU 31.9. Allowed: LAL 30.7, HOU 24.7
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: LAL 60.1 and allows 53.7; HOU 56.6 and allows 52.1
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: LAL 18.3%, HOU 15.1%. Forced: LAL 17.8%, HOU 15.7%
Even
LAL offense vs HOU defense
Offense 4th of 30 against a defense 4th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: LAL 100%, HOU 100%. Transfers in: LAL 0, HOU 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market vs model

The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edge
Spread
Market—
ModelHOU -6.8
Model edge—
Total
Market—
Model229.6
Model edge—
Projected score
LAL 111.4 · HOU 118.2
Win probability
HOU 69%
1st half
Spread
HOU -3.7
Total
115.0
Projected score
LAL 55.6 · HOU 59.3
Model edge = where the model differs from the market, in points: a reason to look, not a trend. The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. Model record › · 1st-half slate ›

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Rockets has the better starters

Position by position: Lakers 1, Rockets 3, even 1
LakersBetterRockets
G A. Reaves23.1 pts · 3.4 reb · 5.1 ast Score 82
LALSmall
G A. Thompson16.3 pts · 6.6 reb · 3.7 ast Score 60
G L. Doncic37.7 pts · 8.2 reb · 7.3 ast Score 79
HOUSmall
G F. VanVleet13 pts · 4 reb · 6.4 ast Score 94
G M. Thybulle9 pts · 1.9 reb · 1.1 ast Score 50
HOUSmall
F J. Smith19 pts · 5.9 reb · 2.7 ast Score 79
F J. LaRavia5.8 pts · 3.5 reb · 1.3 ast Score 70
Even
F K. Durant22 pts · 5.6 reb · 3.3 ast Score 82
C W. Kessler14.3 pts · 9.9 reb · 1.1 ast Score 42
HOUBig
C A. Sengun22.8 pts · 9 reb · 7.4 ast Score 84
LakersBetterRockets
LAL offense4th of 30 · +3.2
Even
HOU defense4th of 30 · +5.2
LAL defense17th of 30 · -0.2
HOUBig
HOU offense6th of 30 · +2.9
Backcourt+24.2 · 3 players
LALBig
Backcourt+19.1 · 2 players
Frontcourt+7.4 · 2 players
HOUBig
Frontcourt+30.0 · 3 players
Bench+6.7 · 5 players
HOUBig
Bench+16.2 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestLAL betterHOU betterNEW no NBA numbers yet
Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Lakers
Guards
A. Reaves36 minL. Doncic36 minM. Thybulle25 minQ. Grimes27 minC. Sexton18 minJ. Hardy16 min
Forwards
J. LaRavia23 minS. Mamukelashvili24 minJ. Vanderbilt15 minK. Looney8 minA. KalumaNewA. OkerekeNew
Centers
W. Kessler31 min
Out
Z. WilliamsOut
Rockets
Guards
A. Thompson34 minF. VanVleet31 minM. Smart25 minB. Bogdanovic15 minS. Pedulla4 minB. Thornton3 min
Forwards
J. Smith34 minK. Durant34 minT. Eason24 minJ. Tate9 minI. Crawford7 min
Centers
A. Sengun34 minO. Tshiebwe17 min
Out
S. AdamsOutC. CapelaDay-To-DayR. SheppardDay-To-Day
In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
LALHOU
Scoring
120.3 #5Points per game120.7 #3
1.18 #2Points per possession1.20 #1
102.9 #17Pace (possessions)101.6 #24
Shooting
60.1 #1Effective FG%56.6 #3
38.9 #43-point %39.0 #3
45.7 #93-point attempt rate38.1 #26
37.2 #2Free throw rate31.9 #8
Possessions
18.3 #28Turnover rate15.1 #13
26.8 #19Offensive rebound rate32.4 #3
23.4 #27Assists per game28.1 #5
Defense
115.0 #17Points allowed108.3 #7
1.11 #19Points allowed per possession1.06 #8
53.7 #17Opponent effective FG%52.1 #10
36.7 #22Opponent 3-point %30.2 #4
17.8 #4Turnovers forced15.7 #16
67.4 #29Defensive rebound rate73.2 #14
10.4 #4Steals per game9.7 #6
6.7 #3Blocks per game5.9 #8
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Lakers

5-2 overall · 4-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27
  • Wvs Raptors131–125
  • L@ Warriors95–112
  • W@ Clippers103–87
  • Lvs Trail Blazers129–136
  • W@ Jazz132–123

A week or more of rest.

Rockets

6-1 overall · 3-1 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27
  • Wvs Thunder119–98
  • L@ Mavericks111–116
  • W@ Bucks132–100
  • Wvs Hawks120–110
  • W@ Hawks121–114

A week or more of rest.