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NBA · Tue, Mar 30

Rockets @ Trail Blazers

Moda Center · at Trail Blazers · Conference game
#1HOURockets
@
#9PORTrail Blazers
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
HOUThis seasonPOR
6-1Record4-1
6-1ATS3-2
5-2O/U2-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects HOU 113–112 · win probability HOU 52%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 225.3
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: HOU has more of the edges

HOU 3, POR 1 · 2026-27 so far
Context
Schedule so far
HOU has played the 12th-hardest schedule, POR the 27th. A record against a soft schedule means less
HOUSmall
Three-pointers
HOU hits 39.0% and allows 30.2%; POR hits 35.3% and allows 32.1%. Threes are 38.1% and 51.5% of their shots
HOUSmall
POR offense vs HOU defense
Offense 10th of 30 against a defense 4th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Tempo
About 103 possessions: HOU plays 101.6 a game (24th fastest), POR 103.5 (14th). Faster games mean more points
HOUSmall
HOU offense vs POR defense
Offense 6th of 30 against a defense 11th, on the model’s ratings
PORSmall
Home court
POR at home. This season: POR 1-1 at home, HOU 3-1 away
Even
Recent form
Last 5: HOU 4-1 ATS, margin +13.0; POR 3-2 ATS, margin +11.4
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: HOU 31.9, POR 35.9. Allowed: HOU 24.7, POR 27.8
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: HOU 56.6 and allows 52.1; POR 56.2 and allows 51.3
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: HOU 15.1%, POR 14.6%. Forced: HOU 15.7%, POR 14.8%
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: HOU 32.4%, POR 27.6%. Defensive: HOU 73.2%, POR 77.3%
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: HOU 100%, POR 100%. Transfers in: HOU 0, POR 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market vs model

The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edge
Spread
Market—
ModelHOU -0.8
Model edge—
Total
Market—
Model225.3
Model edge—
Projected score
HOU 113 · POR 112.3
Win probability
HOU 52%
1st half
Spread
HOU -0.6
Total
112.9
Projected score
HOU 56.8 · POR 56.2
Model edge = where the model differs from the market, in points: a reason to look, not a trend. The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. Model record › · 1st-half slate ›

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Rockets has the better starters

Position by position: Rockets 2, Trail Blazers 1, even 2
RocketsBetterTrail Blazers
G A. Thompson16.3 pts · 6.6 reb · 3.7 ast Score 60
PORSmall
G D. Lillard19.2 pts · 4 reb · 3.6 ast Score 89
G F. VanVleet13 pts · 4 reb · 6.4 ast Score 94
HOUBig
G S. Henderson8.8 pts · 2.4 reb · 1.4 ast Score 34
F J. Smith19 pts · 5.9 reb · 2.7 ast Score 79
Even
F D. Avdija23 pts · 6.8 reb · 5.6 ast Score 82
F K. Durant22 pts · 5.6 reb · 3.3 ast Score 82
HOUBig
F T. Camara15.2 pts · 2.4 reb · 1.2 ast Score 44
C A. Sengun22.8 pts · 9 reb · 7.4 ast Score 84
Even
C D. Clingan8.6 pts · 8.8 reb · 1.4 ast Score 74
RocketsBetterTrail Blazers
HOU offense6th of 30 · +2.9
HOUSmall
POR defense11th of 30 · +1.8
HOU defense4th of 30 · +5.2
HOUSmall
POR offense10th of 30 · +1.4
Backcourt+19.1 · 2 players
HOUBig
Backcourt+11.6 · 2 players
Frontcourt+30.0 · 3 players
HOUBig
Frontcourt+16.7 · 3 players
Bench+16.2 · 5 players
Even
Bench+15.6 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestHOU betterPOR betterNEW no NBA numbers yet
Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Rockets
Guards
A. Thompson34 minF. VanVleet31 minM. Smart25 minB. Bogdanovic15 minS. Pedulla4 minB. Thornton3 min
Forwards
J. Smith34 minK. Durant34 minT. Eason24 minJ. Tate9 minI. Crawford7 min
Centers
A. Sengun34 minO. Tshiebwe17 min
Out
S. AdamsOutC. CapelaDay-To-DayR. SheppardDay-To-Day
Trail Blazers
Guards
D. Lillard29 minS. Henderson21 minJ. Holiday25 minS. Cissoko22 minV. Krejci11 minC. Youngblood6 min
Forwards
D. Avdija31 minT. Camara26 minJ. Tonje8 min
Centers
D. Clingan22 minM. Potter19 minR. Williams17 minB. Carlson12 minY. Hansen10 min
Out
J. MorantOut
In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
HOUPOR
Scoring
120.7 #3Points per game120.6 #4
1.20 #1Points per possession1.16 #5
101.6 #24Pace (possessions)103.5 #14
Shooting
56.6 #3Effective FG%56.2 #4
39.0 #33-point %35.3 #12
38.1 #263-point attempt rate51.5 #1
31.9 #8Free throw rate35.9 #3
Possessions
15.1 #13Turnover rate14.6 #9
32.4 #3Offensive rebound rate27.6 #14
28.1 #5Assists per game26.2 #17
Defense
108.3 #7Points allowed109.2 #10
1.06 #8Points allowed per possession1.06 #10
52.1 #10Opponent effective FG%51.3 #8
30.2 #4Opponent 3-point %32.1 #8
15.7 #16Turnovers forced14.8 #20
73.2 #14Defensive rebound rate77.3 #3
9.7 #6Steals per game8.6 #18
5.9 #8Blocks per game4.2 #21
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Rockets

6-1 overall · 3-1 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27
  • Wvs Thunder119–98
  • L@ Mavericks111–116
  • W@ Bucks132–100
  • Wvs Hawks120–110
  • W@ Hawks121–114

A week or more of rest.

Trail Blazers

4-1 overall · 4-1 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27
  • W@ Jazz112–90
  • Lvs Grizzlies103–124
  • W@ Lakers136–129
  • W@ Kings128–120
  • Wvs Suns124–83

A week or more of rest.