Chicago Bulls at Memphis Grizzlies: Model Line and Edge

Thu, Mar 25, 8:00 PM ETFedExForum · at Grizzlies

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Bulls and Grizzlies
CHI	This season	MEM
1-5	Record	6-0
3-3	ATS	6-0
2-4	O/U	2-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects MEM 125–115 · win probability MEM 77%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 239.2

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: MEM has more of the edges

CHI 1, MEM 7 · 2026-27 so far

MEMBig

Three-pointers

CHI hits 28.1% and allows 39.3%; MEM hits 41.7% and allows 30.0%. Threes are 47.9% and 42.1% of their shots

MEMBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: CHI 48.2 and allows 56.0; MEM 55.9 and allows 49.2

MEMBig

MEM offense vs CHI defense

Offense 11th of 30 against a defense 30th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

CHI has played the 14th-hardest schedule, MEM the 30th. A record against a soft schedule means less

MEMBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: CHI 29.2%, MEM 30.6%. Defensive: CHI 69.8%, MEM 75.0%

CHISmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: CHI 38.3, MEM 25.3. Allowed: CHI 33.5, MEM 31.4

Context

Tempo

About 107 possessions: CHI plays 109.8 a game (1st fastest), MEM 103.6 (13th). Faster games mean more points

MEMSmall

Recent form

Last 5: CHI 3-2 ATS, margin -10.4; MEM 5-0 ATS, margin +14.2

MEMSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: CHI 16.2%, MEM 15.4%. Forced: CHI 14.7%, MEM 15.7%

MEMSmall

Home court

MEM at home. This season: MEM 2-0 at home, CHI 1-3 away

Even

CHI offense vs MEM defense

Offense 12th of 30 against a defense 13th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: CHI 100%, MEM 100%. Transfers in: CHI 0, MEM 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CHI WLLWW	3-3	50%	2-2	—
MEM WWWWW	6-0	100%	2-0	—

Venue/role: CHI away; MEM home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
CHI OUUOU	2-4	33%	1-5
MEM UOUUO	2-4	33%	6-0

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CHIlast 6	1-5 17%	3-3 50%	2-4 33%
MEMlast 6	6-0 100%	6-0 100%	2-4 33%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Bulls

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 27	vs LAC	L108–119WU
Mar 29	vs IND	L126–145LO
Mar 31	@ WSH	L120–124LU

Grizzlies

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 28	@ BKN	L115–126LO
Mar 30	vs LAL	L114–120LU
Apr 2	@ HOU	L101–132LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

CHI 5–5 MEMSeries tied · 10 games since 2021-22 · CHI 5-5 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 28, 2025-26	CHI 124 @ MEM 125	MEM +5.5	MEM W
Mar 16, 2025-26	MEM 107 @ CHI 132	CHI -7.5	CHI W
Nov 23, 2024-25	MEM 142 @ CHI 131	CHI +4.5	MEM W
Oct 28, 2024-25	CHI 126 @ MEM 123	MEM -4.5	CHI W
Feb 8, 2023-24	CHI 118 @ MEM 110	MEM +5.5	CHI W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Bulls

6 games played

Straight up

1-5

17% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg −8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg +5 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-517%

L W L L L L

4 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

L W L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-433%

U O U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@TOR	L 92-135	+10.5	L −32.5	237.5	U 227
Oct 23	@MIL	W 132-125	+1.5	W +8.5	241.5	O 257
Oct 24	vsWSH	L 120-124	-1.5	L −5.5	244.5	U 244
Oct 26	@BOS	L 99-134	+14.5	L −20.5	233.5	U 233
Oct 28	vsNY	L 127-133	+7.5	W +1.5	233.5	O 260
Oct 30	@BOS	L 111-125	+14.5	W +0.5	236.5	U 236

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

TOR

L 92-135

−32.5

MIL

W 132-125

+8.5

WSH

L 120-124

−5.5

BOS

L 99-134

−20.5

L 127-133

+1.5

BOS

L 111-125

+0.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg −8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

TOR

L 92-135

−10.5

MIL

W 132-125

+15.5

WSH

L 120-124

−0.5

BOS

L 99-134

−0.5

L 127-133

+26.5

BOS

L 111-125

−0.5

over 2under 4avg +5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Grizzlies

6 games played

Straight up

6-0

100% wins

Against the spread

6-0

100% covers · avg +14.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg −8.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

6-0100%

W W W W W W

6 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

6-0100%

W W W W W W

6 straight covers4 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-433%

U U O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsUTAH	W 123-103	-1.5	W +18.5	240.5	U 226
Oct 23	@GS	W 111-108	+4.5	W +7.5	236.5	U 219
Oct 25	@SAC	W 123-112	-3.5	W +7.5	234.5	O 235
Oct 26	@UTAH	W 110-105	-1.5	W +3.5	237.5	U 215
Oct 29	@POR	W 124-103	+7.5	W +28.5	233.5	U 227
Oct 31	vsSAC	W 136-105	-7.5	W +23.5	229.5	O 241

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UTAH

W 123-103

+18.5

W 111-108

+7.5

SAC

W 123-112

+7.5

UTAH

W 110-105

+3.5

POR

W 124-103

+28.5

SAC

W 136-105

+23.5

covered 6didn’t cover 0avg +14.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UTAH

W 123-103

−14.5

W 111-108

−17.5

SAC

W 123-112

+0.5

UTAH

W 110-105

−22.5

POR

W 124-103

−6.5

SAC

W 136-105

+11.5

over 2under 4avg −8.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Grizzlies has the better starters

Position by position: Bulls 0, Grizzlies 5, even 0

BullsBetterGrizzlies

G N. Powell20.7 pts · 2.7 reb · 2 ast Score 71

MEMSmall

G T. Jerome25.8 pts · 3.2 reb · 5.6 ast Score 97

G J. Giddey8.5 pts · 5.3 reb · 7.5 ast Score 29

MEMBig

F C. Boozer17.7 pts · 10.5 reb · 5.7 ast Score 87

F C. Wilson21.2 pts · 6.7 reb · 2.5 ast Score 6

MEMSmall

F C. Coward13 pts · 8.6 reb · 2.6 ast Score 33

F M. Buzelis14.5 pts · 4.5 reb · 1.8 ast Score 4

MEMBig

F J. Wells12.2 pts · 3.3 reb · 1 ast Score 85

F P. Williams7 pts · 3 reb · 1.5 ast Score 19

MEMBig

C Z. Edey7 pts · 7 reb · 1 ast Score 92

BullsBetterGrizzlies

CHI offense12th of 30 · +1.2

Even

MEM defense13th of 30 · +1.1

CHI defense30th of 30 · -9.4

MEMBig

MEM offense11th of 30 · +1.3

Backcourt+5.1 · 2 players

MEMBig

Backcourt+16.5 · 1 player

Frontcourt-24.0 · 3 players

MEMBig

Frontcourt+29.5 · 4 players

Bench-6.9 · 5 players

CHIBig

Bench-18.8 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestCHI betterMEM betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Bulls

Guards

N. Powell30 minJ. Giddey27 minT. Jones18 minB. Hield14 minJ. Hawkins14 minD. Swain12 min

Forwards

C. Wilson34 minM. Buzelis25 minP. Williams21 minL. Miller19 minZ. Collins18 minI. Okoro18 min

Out

J. SmithDay-To-DayT. AwakaDay-To-Day

Grizzlies

Guards

T. Jerome30 minJ. Mashack22 minJ. Small21 minC. Spencer19 minW. Clayton11 min

Forwards

C. Boozer31 minC. Coward28 minJ. Wells27 minJ. Grant24 minT. Hendricks19 minO. Prosper19 min

Centers

Z. Edey20 minI. Stewart18 minC. Cooper3 min

Out

S. PippenDay-To-DayQ. PostDay-To-Day

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

CHI113.5 #16

MEM121.2 #1

Points per possession

CHI1.04 #26

MEM1.16 #4

Pace (possessions)

CHI109.8 #1

MEM103.6 #13

Shooting

Effective FG%

CHI48.2 #30

MEM55.9 #5

3-point %

CHI28.1 #30

MEM41.7 #1

3-point attempt rate

CHI47.9 #4

MEM42.1 #19

Free throw rate

CHI38.3 #1

MEM25.3 #22

Possessions

Turnover rate

CHI16.2 #20

MEM15.4 #16

Offensive rebound rate

CHI29.2 #9

MEM30.6 #5

Assists per game

CHI24.3 #25

MEM27.0 #13

Defense

Points allowed

CHI129.3 #30

MEM106.0 #3

Points allowed per possession

CHI1.17 #27

MEM1.03 #2

Opponent effective FG%

CHI56.0 #26

MEM49.2 #3

Opponent 3-point %

CHI39.3 #28

MEM30.0 #3

Turnovers forced

CHI14.7 #21

MEM15.7 #15

Defensive rebound rate

CHI69.8 #24

MEM75.0 #9

Steals per game

CHI8.7 #17

MEM6.3 #28

Blocks per game

CHI5.0 #12

MEM5.2 #11

CHI		MEM
Scoring
113.5 #16	Points per game	121.2 #1
1.04 #26	Points per possession	1.16 #4
109.8 #1	Pace (possessions)	103.6 #13
Shooting
48.2 #30	Effective FG%	55.9 #5
28.1 #30	3-point %	41.7 #1
47.9 #4	3-point attempt rate	42.1 #19
38.3 #1	Free throw rate	25.3 #22
Possessions
16.2 #20	Turnover rate	15.4 #16
29.2 #9	Offensive rebound rate	30.6 #5
24.3 #25	Assists per game	27.0 #13
Defense
129.3 #30	Points allowed	106.0 #3
1.17 #27	Points allowed per possession	1.03 #2
56.0 #26	Opponent effective FG%	49.2 #3
39.3 #28	Opponent 3-point %	30.0 #3
14.7 #21	Turnovers forced	15.7 #15
69.8 #24	Defensive rebound rate	75.0 #9
8.7 #17	Steals per game	6.3 #28
5.0 #12	Blocks per game	5.2 #11

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Bulls

1-5 overall · 1-5 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Celtics111–125
Lvs Knicks127–133
L@ Celtics99–134
Lvs Wizards120–124
W@ Bucks132–125

A week or more of rest.

Grizzlies

6-0 overall · 6-0 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Kings136–105
W@ Trail Blazers124–103
W@ Jazz110–105
W@ Kings123–112
W@ Warriors111–108

A week or more of rest.

Bulls @ Grizzlies

What could decide it: MEM has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Bulls

Grizzlies

Grizzlies has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Bulls

Grizzlies