Kaseya Center · at Heat
LineNo line yet
Total—
 UTAH | This season | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 1-5 | Record | 2-4 |
| 1-5 | ATS | 2-4 |
| 2-4 | O/U | 3-3 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model: projects MIA 124–115 · win probability MIA 73%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 238.8
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record
What could decide it: MIA has more of the edges
UTAH 2, MIA 4 · 2026-27 so far
MIABigMIA offense vs UTAH defense
Offense 1st of 30 against a defense 27th, on the model’s ratings
MIABigTurnovers
Turnover rate: UTAH 17.0%, MIA 14.1%. Forced: UTAH 13.3%, MIA 15.4%
UTAHSmallRebounding
Offensive rebound rate: UTAH 25.7%, MIA 24.5%. Defensive: UTAH 77.1%, MIA 72.3%
MIASmallFree throws
Free throw rate: UTAH 31.6, MIA 27.3. Allowed: UTAH 33.8, MIA 23.2
Context
Schedule so far
UTAH has played the 4th-hardest schedule, MIA the 11th. A record against a soft schedule means less
UTAHSmallUTAH offense vs MIA defense
Offense 20th of 30 against a defense 26th, on the model’s ratings
MIASmallHome court
MIA at home. This season: MIA 1-3 at home, UTAH 0-1 away
Context
Tempo
About 105 possessions: UTAH plays 104.0 a game (12th fastest), MIA 106.2 (5th). Faster games mean more points
Even
Recent form
Last 5: UTAH 1-4 ATS, margin -8.2; MIA 2-3 ATS, margin +1.2
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: UTAH 51.0 and allows 53.9; MIA 54.6 and allows 56.8
Even
Three-pointers
UTAH hits 32.6% and allows 37.6%; MIA hits 34.1% and allows 40.6%. Threes are 41.7% and 41.7% of their shots
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: UTAH 100%, MIA 100%. Transfers in: UTAH 0, MIA 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edge
Spread
Market—
ModelMIA -8.8
Model edge—
Total
Market—
Model238.8
Model edge—
Projected score
UTAH 115 · MIA 123.8
Win probability
MIA 73%
1st half
Spread
MIA -4.8
Total
119.3
Projected score
UTAH 57.2 · MIA 62
Market
Open → current
Spread
Open—
no open
Now—
Opening line not available
Total
Open—
no open
Now—
Moneyline
—
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2026-27, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| UTAHlast 6 | 1-5 17% | 1-5 17% | 2-4 33% |
| MIAlast 6 | 2-4 33% | 2-4 33% | 3-3 50% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22
UTAH 3–7 MIAMIA leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · UTAH 6-4 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 9, 2025-26 | UTAH 115 @ MIA 111 | MIA -5.5 | UTAH W |
| Jan 24, 2025-26 | MIA 147 @ UTAH 116 | UTAH +6.5 | MIA W |
| Jan 9, 2024-25 | MIA 97 @ UTAH 92 | UTAH +5.5 | UTAH W |
| Jan 4, 2024-25 | UTAH 136 @ MIA 100 | MIA -8.5 | UTAH W |
| Mar 2, 2023-24 | UTAH 120 @ MIA 126 | MIA -9.5 | UTAH W |
ATS History · 2026-27
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Jazz
6 games played
Straight up
1-5
17% wins
Against the spread
1-5
17% covers · avg −5.5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
2-4
33% overs · avg −9 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
21
@
MEM
MEML 103-123
−18.5
23
vs
NO
NOW 120-119
−0.5
25
vs
LAL
LALL 123-132
−2.5
26
vsMEM
MEML 105-110
−3.5
28
vs
SA
SAL 111-117
+7.5
31
vs
POR
PORL 90-112
−15.5
covered 1didn’t cover 5avg −5.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
21
@MEM
MEML 103-123
−14.5
23
vsNO
NOW 120-119
+0.5
25
vsLAL
LALL 123-132
+17.5
26
vsMEM
MEML 105-110
−22.5
28
vsSA
SAL 111-117
−4.5
31
vsPOR
PORL 90-112
−30.5
over 2under 4avg −9 ptslonger = bigger margin
Heat
6 games played
Straight up
2-4
33% wins
Against the spread
2-4
33% covers · avg −6 pts vs the line
Over / Under
3-3
50% overs · avg +2.5 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
21
vs
MIN
MINL 106-131
−26.5
23
vs
DET
DETL 111-128
−14.5
24
@
CHA
CHAL 110-115
−9.5
26
vs
DAL
DALL 109-113
−11.5
28
@
ATL
ATLW 129-117
+14.5
30
vs
IND
INDW 145-125
+11.5
covered 2didn’t cover 4avg −6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
21
vsMIN
MINL 106-131
−3.5
23
vsDET
DETL 111-128
+3.5
24
@CHA
CHAL 110-115
−2.5
26
vsDAL
DALL 109-113
−18.5
28
@ATL
ATLW 129-117
+2.5
30
vsIND
INDW 145-125
+33.5
over 3under 3avg +2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Heat has the better starters
Position by position: Jazz 1, Heat 3, even 1
JazzBetterHeat
G K. George21.7 pts · 3.8 reb · 6.3 ast
Score 8
→MIABig
G D. Mitchell16.2 pts · 1.7 reb · 8.2 ast
Score 48
G A. Bailey13.3 pts · 7.8 reb · 2.2 ast
Score 11
=Even
G K. Thompson10.7 pts · 1.3 reb · 1.3 ast
Score 20
G D. Peterson13.3 pts · 4.3 reb · 2.8 ast
Score 17
→MIABig
F G. Antetokounmpo28.2 pts · 12.3 reb · 5.5 ast
Score 89
F L. Markkanen15.4 pts · 5.4 reb · 1.6 ast
Score 94
←UTAHSmall
F A. Wiggins10.8 pts · 3 reb · 1.3 ast
Score 62
C J. Hayes8 pts · 6.6 reb · 2.4 ast
Score 36
→MIASmall
C B. Adebayo16.3 pts · 7.8 reb · 3.3 ast
Score 66
JazzBetterHeat
UTAH offense20th of 30 · -1.2
←UTAHSmall
MIA defense26th of 30 · -5.2
UTAH defense27th of 30 · -6.0
→MIABig
MIA offense1st of 30 · +4.9
Backcourt-20.5 · 3 players
→MIABig
Backcourt+0.0 · 2 players
Frontcourt+15.0 · 2 players
→MIABig
Frontcourt+23.1 · 3 players
Bench+2.1 · 5 players
←UTAHBig
Bench-1.8 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestUTAH betterMIA betterNEW no NBA numbers yet
Depth chart
Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
JazzGuards
K. George32 minA. Bailey31 minD. Peterson30 minI. Collier19 minS. Mykhailiuk17 minJ. Okogie16 min
Forwards
L. Markkanen29 minB. Hinson20 minB. Sensabaugh16 minK. Filipowski8 minH. Ingram4 min
Centers
J. Hayes26 minM. Bamba19 minT. Bradley11 min
Out
J. JacksonOut
HeatGuards
D. Mitchell34 minK. Thompson21 minP. Larsson30 minD. Smith10 minR. Conwell4 min
Forwards
G. Antetokounmpo32 minA. Wiggins27 minB. Portis23 minS. Fontecchio17 minN. Jovic13 minM. Gardner9 min
Centers
B. Adebayo32 minN. Richards15 min
Out
T. HardawayDay-To-Day
Matchup stats
2026-27 · rank among 30 teams
Scoring
Points per game
UTAH108.7 #24MIA118.3 #9Points per possession
UTAH1.05 #25MIA1.11 #14Pace (possessions)
UTAH104.0 #12MIA106.2 #5Shooting
Effective FG%
UTAH51.0 #24MIA54.6 #123-point %
UTAH32.6 #23MIA34.1 #193-point attempt rate
UTAH41.7 #21MIA41.7 #20Free throw rate
UTAH31.6 #10MIA27.3 #19Possessions
Turnover rate
UTAH17.0 #25MIA14.1 #5Offensive rebound rate
UTAH25.7 #22MIA24.5 #24Assists per game
UTAH26.2 #19MIA28.8 #3Defense
Points allowed
UTAH118.8 #25MIA121.5 #26Points allowed per possession
UTAH1.14 #25MIA1.15 #26Opponent effective FG%
UTAH53.9 #18MIA56.8 #27Opponent 3-point %
UTAH37.6 #25MIA40.6 #29Turnovers forced
UTAH13.3 #28MIA15.4 #18Defensive rebound rate
UTAH77.1 #4MIA72.3 #17Steals per game
UTAH6.2 #29MIA8.3 #19Blocks per game
UTAH6.5 #5MIA5.0 #13| UTAH | MIA | |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| 108.7 #24 | Points per game | 118.3 #9 |
| 1.05 #25 | Points per possession | 1.11 #14 |
| 104.0 #12 | Pace (possessions) | 106.2 #5 |
| Shooting | ||
| 51.0 #24 | Effective FG% | 54.6 #12 |
| 32.6 #23 | 3-point % | 34.1 #19 |
| 41.7 #21 | 3-point attempt rate | 41.7 #20 |
| 31.6 #10 | Free throw rate | 27.3 #19 |
| Possessions | ||
| 17.0 #25 | Turnover rate | 14.1 #5 |
| 25.7 #22 | Offensive rebound rate | 24.5 #24 |
| 26.2 #19 | Assists per game | 28.8 #3 |
| Defense | ||
| 118.8 #25 | Points allowed | 121.5 #26 |
| 1.14 #25 | Points allowed per possession | 1.15 #26 |
| 53.9 #18 | Opponent effective FG% | 56.8 #27 |
| 37.6 #25 | Opponent 3-point % | 40.6 #29 |
| 13.3 #28 | Turnovers forced | 15.4 #18 |
| 77.1 #4 | Defensive rebound rate | 72.3 #17 |
| 6.2 #29 | Steals per game | 8.3 #19 |
| 6.5 #5 | Blocks per game | 5.0 #13 |
Jazz
1-5 overall · 1-5 in conference · Western Conference
Last five, 2026-27
- Lvs Trail Blazers90–112
- Lvs Spurs111–117
- Lvs Grizzlies105–110
- Lvs Lakers123–132
- Wvs Pelicans120–119
A week or more of rest.
Heat
2-4 overall · 2-2 in conference · Eastern Conference
Last five, 2026-27
- Wvs Pacers145–125
- W@ Hawks129–117
- Lvs Mavericks109–113
- L@ Hornets110–115
- Lvs Pistons111–128
A week or more of rest.