Miami Heat at Cleveland Cavaliers: Model Line and Edge

Mon, Mar 29, 7:00 PM ETRocket Arena · at Cavaliers · Conference game

#18MIAHeat

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Heat and Cavaliers
MIA	This season	CLE
2-4	Record	4-2
2-4	ATS	2-4
3-3	O/U	3-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects CLE 123–116 · win probability CLE 68%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 238.3

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: CLE has more of the edges

MIA 2, CLE 5 · 2026-27 so far

CLEBig

CLE offense vs MIA defense

Offense 2nd of 30 against a defense 26th, on the model’s ratings

MIABig

MIA offense vs CLE defense

Offense 1st of 30 against a defense 20th, on the model’s ratings

CLEBig

Three-pointers

MIA hits 34.1% and allows 40.6%; CLE hits 37.0% and allows 33.7%. Threes are 41.7% and 43.6% of their shots

Context

Schedule so far

MIA has played the 11th-hardest schedule, CLE the 24th. A record against a soft schedule means less

CLEBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: MIA 54.6 and allows 56.8; CLE 55.3 and allows 52.5

CLESmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: MIA 24.5%, CLE 26.7%. Defensive: MIA 72.3%, CLE 73.9%

CLESmall

Home court

CLE at home. This season: CLE 3-0 at home, MIA 1-1 away

MIASmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: MIA 14.1%, CLE 14.2%. Forced: MIA 15.4%, CLE 14.1%

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: MIA 27.3, CLE 28.9. Allowed: MIA 23.2, CLE 23.2

Context

Tempo

About 106 possessions: MIA plays 106.2 a game (5th fastest), CLE 106.2 (3rd). Faster games mean more points

Even

Recent form

Last 5: MIA 2-3 ATS, margin +1.2; CLE 2-3 ATS, margin +7.6

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: MIA 100%, CLE 100%. Transfers in: MIA 0, CLE 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MIA LLLWW	2-4	33%	1-1	—
CLE LLWLW	2-4	33%	1-2	—

Venue/role: MIA away; CLE home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
MIA OUUOO	3-3	50%	2-4
CLE OOUUO	3-3	50%	4-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MIAlast 6	2-4 33%	2-4 33%	3-3 50%
CLElast 6	4-2 67%	2-4 33%	3-3 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Heat

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 30	@ CHA	L110–115LU
Apr 2	@ BOS	L129–147LO
Apr 4	@ DET	L111–128LO

Cavaliers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 31	@ BKN	W125–121LO
Apr 1	vs BOS	L98–109LU
Apr 4	vs CHA	W118–113LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 22 since 2021-22

MIA 9–13 CLECLE leads · 22 games since 2021-22 · MIA 11-11 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 27, 2025-26	MIA 128 @ CLE 149	CLE -5.5	CLE W
Mar 25, 2025-26	MIA 120 @ CLE 103	CLE -2.5	MIA W
Nov 12, 2025-26	CLE 130 @ MIA 116	MIA -4.5	CLE W
Nov 10, 2025-26	CLE 138 @ MIA 140	MIA +7.5	MIA W
Apr 28, 2024-25	CLE 138 @ MIA 83	MIA +8.5	CLE W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Heat

6 games played

Straight up

2-4

33% wins

Against the spread

2-4

33% covers · avg −6 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg +2.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-433%

L L L L W W

2 straight wins2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-433%

L L L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-350%

U O U U O O

2 straight overs2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsMIN	L 106-131	-1.5	L −26.5	240.5	U 237
Oct 23	vsDET	L 111-128	+2.5	L −14.5	235.5	O 239
Oct 24	@CHA	L 110-115	-4.5	L −9.5	227.5	U 225
Oct 26	vsDAL	L 109-113	-7.5	L −11.5	240.5	U 222
Oct 28	@ATL	W 129-117	+2.5	W +14.5	243.5	O 246
Oct 30	vsIND	W 145-125	-8.5	W +11.5	236.5	O 270

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MIN

L 106-131

−26.5

DET

L 111-128

−14.5

CHA

L 110-115

−9.5

DAL

L 109-113

−11.5

ATL

W 129-117

+14.5

IND

W 145-125

+11.5

covered 2didn’t cover 4avg −6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MIN

L 106-131

−3.5

DET

L 111-128

+3.5

CHA

L 110-115

−2.5

DAL

L 109-113

−18.5

ATL

W 129-117

+2.5

IND

W 145-125

+33.5

over 3under 3avg +2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Cavaliers

6 games played

Straight up

4-2

67% wins

Against the spread

2-4

33% covers · avg +0.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg +1.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-267%

L W W W L W

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

2-433%

L L L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-350%

U O O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 22	@PHI	L 106-114	+2.5	L −5.5	237.5	U 220
Oct 24	vsBKN	W 125-121	-11.5	L −7.5	228.5	O 246
Oct 26	vsMIN	W 127-125	-3.5	L −1.5	234.5	O 252
Oct 28	vsWSH	W 121-111	-9.5	W +0.5	240.5	U 232
Oct 29	@ATL	L 111-114	+1.5	L −1.5	237.5	U 225
Oct 31	@MIL	W 136-111	-8.5	W +16.5	234.5	O 247

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

PHI

L 106-114

−5.5

BKN

W 125-121

−7.5

MIN

W 127-125

−1.5

WSH

W 121-111

+0.5

ATL

L 111-114

−1.5

MIL

W 136-111

+16.5

covered 2didn’t cover 4avg +0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

PHI

L 106-114

−17.5

BKN

W 125-121

+17.5

MIN

W 127-125

+17.5

WSH

W 121-111

−8.5

ATL

L 111-114

−12.5

MIL

W 136-111

+12.5

over 3under 3avg +1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Cavaliers has the better starters

Position by position: Heat 1, Cavaliers 2, even 2

HeatBetterCavaliers

G D. Mitchell16.2 pts · 1.7 reb · 8.2 ast Score 48

Even

G J. Harden16.7 pts · 4.8 reb · 6.3 ast Score 53

G K. Thompson10.7 pts · 1.3 reb · 1.3 ast Score 20

CLEBig

G D. Mitchell22.7 pts · 5.3 reb · 4.5 ast Score 86

F G. Antetokounmpo28.2 pts · 12.3 reb · 5.5 ast Score 89

Even

G S. Merrill8.5 pts · 3 reb · 2.3 ast Score 90

F A. Wiggins10.8 pts · 3 reb · 1.3 ast Score 62

MIASmall

C E. Mobley19.7 pts · 8.2 reb · 3.5 ast Score 30

C B. Adebayo16.3 pts · 7.8 reb · 3.3 ast Score 66

CLESmall

C J. Allen15.3 pts · 9.2 reb · 1.5 ast Score 100

HeatBetterCavaliers

MIA offense1st of 30 · +4.9

MIABig

CLE defense20th of 30 · -1.2

MIA defense26th of 30 · -5.2

CLEBig

CLE offense2nd of 30 · +4.0

Backcourt+0.0 · 2 players

CLEBig

Backcourt+25.3 · 3 players

Frontcourt+23.1 · 3 players

MIABig

Frontcourt+17.9 · 2 players

Bench-1.8 · 5 players

CLEBig

Bench+4.1 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestMIA betterCLE betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Heat

Guards

D. Mitchell34 minK. Thompson21 minP. Larsson30 minD. Smith10 minR. Conwell4 min

Forwards

G. Antetokounmpo32 minA. Wiggins27 minB. Portis23 minS. Fontecchio17 minN. Jovic13 minM. Gardner9 min

Centers

B. Adebayo32 minN. Richards15 min

Out

T. HardawayDay-To-Day

Cavaliers

Guards

J. Harden34 minD. Mitchell33 minS. Merrill24 minM. Thomas21 minT. Proctor12 minC. Porter8 min

Forwards

M. Hezonja18 minT. Enaruna10 minR. Minix7 min

Centers

E. Mobley33 minJ. Allen28 minT. Bryant11 minE. UdehNew

Out

P. WatsonDay-To-DayJ. TysonOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

MIA118.3 #9

CLE121.0 #2

Points per possession

MIA1.11 #14

CLE1.14 #7

Pace (possessions)

MIA106.2 #5

CLE106.2 #3

Shooting

Effective FG%

MIA54.6 #12

CLE55.3 #7

3-point %

MIA34.1 #19

CLE37.0 #8

3-point attempt rate

MIA41.7 #20

CLE43.6 #12

Free throw rate

MIA27.3 #19

CLE28.9 #13

Possessions

Turnover rate

MIA14.1 #5

CLE14.2 #6

Offensive rebound rate

MIA24.5 #24

CLE26.7 #20

Assists per game

MIA28.8 #3

CLE28.7 #4

Defense

Points allowed

MIA121.5 #26

CLE116.0 #20

Points allowed per possession

MIA1.15 #26

CLE1.09 #14

Opponent effective FG%

MIA56.8 #27

CLE52.5 #12

Opponent 3-point %

MIA40.6 #29

CLE33.7 #11

Turnovers forced

MIA15.4 #18

CLE14.1 #25

Defensive rebound rate

MIA72.3 #17

CLE73.9 #11

Steals per game

MIA8.3 #19

CLE7.8 #22

Blocks per game

MIA5.0 #13

CLE6.3 #6

MIA		CLE
Scoring
118.3 #9	Points per game	121.0 #2
1.11 #14	Points per possession	1.14 #7
106.2 #5	Pace (possessions)	106.2 #3
Shooting
54.6 #12	Effective FG%	55.3 #7
34.1 #19	3-point %	37.0 #8
41.7 #20	3-point attempt rate	43.6 #12
27.3 #19	Free throw rate	28.9 #13
Possessions
14.1 #5	Turnover rate	14.2 #6
24.5 #24	Offensive rebound rate	26.7 #20
28.8 #3	Assists per game	28.7 #4
Defense
121.5 #26	Points allowed	116.0 #20
1.15 #26	Points allowed per possession	1.09 #14
56.8 #27	Opponent effective FG%	52.5 #12
40.6 #29	Opponent 3-point %	33.7 #11
15.4 #18	Turnovers forced	14.1 #25
72.3 #17	Defensive rebound rate	73.9 #11
8.3 #19	Steals per game	7.8 #22
5.0 #13	Blocks per game	6.3 #6

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Heat

2-4 overall · 2-2 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Pacers145–125
W@ Hawks129–117
Lvs Mavericks109–113
L@ Hornets110–115
Lvs Pistons111–128

A week or more of rest.

Cavaliers

4-2 overall · 3-2 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Bucks136–111
L@ Hawks111–114
Wvs Wizards121–111
Wvs Timberwolves127–125
Wvs Nets125–121

A week or more of rest.

Heat @ Cavaliers

What could decide it: CLE has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Heat

Cavaliers

Cavaliers has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Heat

Cavaliers