Minnesota Timberwolves at Atlanta Hawks: Model Line and Edge

Mon, Mar 29, 7:00 PM ETState Farm Arena · at Hawks

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Timberwolves and Hawks
MIN	This season	ATL
4-3	Record	3-4
6-1	ATS	3-4
4-3	O/U	4-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects MIN 118–114 · win probability MIN 63%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 231.7

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: MIN has more of the edges

MIN 6, ATL 2 · 2026-27 so far

MINBig

MIN offense vs ATL defense

Offense 3rd of 30 against a defense 18th, on the model’s ratings

MINBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: MIN 55.8 and allows 50.5; ATL 52.6 and allows 54.5

ATLBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: MIN 15.1%, ATL 13.8%. Forced: MIN 15.6%, ATL 18.3%

MINBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: MIN 30.0%, ATL 27.1%. Defensive: MIN 75.4%, ATL 70.9%

MINBig

Recent form

Last 5: MIN 4-1 ATS, margin +6.4; ATL 1-4 ATS, margin -9.6

MINSmall

Three-pointers

MIN hits 37.6% and allows 31.2%; ATL hits 32.8% and allows 31.9%. Threes are 42.8% and 44.7% of their shots

MINSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: MIN 26.1, ATL 23.4. Allowed: MIN 28.9, ATL 32.1

ATLSmall

Home court

ATL at home. This season: ATL 1-2 at home, MIN 2-2 away

Context

Schedule so far

MIN has played the 7th-hardest schedule, ATL the 9th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

ATL offense vs MIN defense

Offense 7th of 30 against a defense 8th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Tempo

About 105 possessions: MIN plays 105.4 a game (9th fastest), ATL 105.6 (7th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: MIN 100%, ATL 100%. Transfers in: MIN 0, ATL 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MIN WWLWW	6-1	86%	4-0	—
ATL LLLWL	3-4	43%	1-2	—

Venue/role: MIN away; ATL home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
MIN UOOOO	4-3	57%	4-3
ATL OOOUU	4-3	57%	3-4

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MINlast 7	4-3 57%	6-1 86%	4-3 57%
ATLlast 7	3-4 43%	3-4 43%	4-3 57%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Timberwolves

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 31	vs SAC	W117–103WU
Apr 2	vs GS	L114–119LO
Apr 4	@ DAL	W124–94WU

Hawks

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 31	vs LAC	L92–115LU
Apr 2	@ TOR	L100–118LU
Apr 4	@ PHI	W125–116WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

MIN 5–5 ATLSeries tied · 10 games since 2021-22 · MIN 2-8 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Feb 9, 2025-26	ATL 116 @ MIN 138	MIN -8.5	MIN W
Dec 31, 2025-26	MIN 102 @ ATL 126	ATL +5.5	ATL W
Jan 27, 2024-25	ATL 92 @ MIN 100	MIN -10.5	ATL W
Dec 23, 2024-25	MIN 104 @ ATL 117	ATL +3.5	ATL W
Apr 12, 2023-24	ATL 106 @ MIN 109	MIN -12.5	ATL W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Timberwolves

7 games played

Straight up

4-3

57% wins

Against the spread

6-1

86% covers · avg +12.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-3

57% overs · avg −2.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-357%

W W W L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

6-186%

W W W W L W W

2 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

4-357%

U U U O O O O

4 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@MIA	W 131-106	+1.5	W +26.5	240.5	U 237
Oct 23	@ORL	W 115-93	+1.5	W +23.5	234.5	U 208
Oct 25	vsTOR	W 117-94	-3.5	W +19.5	228.5	U 211
Oct 26	@CLE	L 125-127	+3.5	W +1.5	234.5	O 252
Oct 28	vsGS	L 114-119	-3.5	L −8.5	227.5	O 233
Oct 30	vsLAC	W 127-101	-6.5	W +19.5	222.5	O 228
Oct 31	@SA	L 111-121	+12.5	W +2.5	230.5	O 232

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MIA

W 131-106

+26.5

ORL

W 115-93

+23.5

TOR

W 117-94

+19.5

CLE

L 125-127

+1.5

L 114-119

−8.5

LAC

W 127-101

+19.5

L 111-121

+2.5

covered 6didn’t cover 1avg +12.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MIA

W 131-106

−3.5

ORL

W 115-93

−26.5

TOR

W 117-94

−17.5

CLE

L 125-127

+17.5

L 114-119

+5.5

LAC

W 127-101

+5.5

L 111-121

+1.5

over 4under 3avg −2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Hawks

7 games played

Straight up

3-4

43% wins

Against the spread

3-4

43% covers · avg +0.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-3

57% overs · avg −2.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-443%

W W L L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-443%

W W L L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

4-357%

O U O O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@ORL	W 132-125	+2.5	W +9.5	233.5	O 257
Oct 23	@CHA	W 128-81	-2.5	W +44.5	226.5	U 209
Oct 24	vsHOU	L 114-121	+1.5	L −5.5	227.5	O 235
Oct 26	@HOU	L 110-120	+4.5	L −5.5	228.5	O 230
Oct 28	vsMIA	L 117-129	-2.5	L −14.5	243.5	O 246
Oct 29	vsCLE	W 114-111	-1.5	W +1.5	237.5	U 225
Oct 31	@NO	L 99-121	-5.5	L −27.5	239.5	U 220

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

ORL

W 132-125

+9.5

CHA

W 128-81

+44.5

HOU

L 114-121

−5.5

HOU

L 110-120

−5.5

MIA

L 117-129

−14.5

CLE

W 114-111

+1.5

L 99-121

−27.5

covered 3didn’t cover 4avg +0.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

ORL

W 132-125

+23.5

CHA

W 128-81

−17.5

HOU

L 114-121

+7.5

HOU

L 110-120

+1.5

MIA

L 117-129

+2.5

CLE

W 114-111

−12.5

L 99-121

−19.5

over 4under 3avg −2.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Timberwolves has the better starters

Position by position: Timberwolves 2, Hawks 1, even 2

TimberwolvesBetterHawks

G A. Dosunmu15.3 pts · 5 reb · 3.4 ast Score 42

ATLSmall

G N. Alexander-Walker19.3 pts · 3.1 reb · 2.6 ast Score 67

G L. Ball14.4 pts · 3.4 reb · 6.3 ast Score 91

Even

G D. Daniels10.3 pts · 5 reb · 4.1 ast Score 87

F J. McDaniels17.3 pts · 6 reb · 3.7 ast Score 96

MINBig

G C. McCollum14.4 pts · 1.9 reb · 2.9 ast Score 59

F J. Kuminga12.9 pts · 4.7 reb · 2.6 ast Score 92

Even

G A. Wiggins14.7 pts · 3.7 reb · 1.9 ast Score 78

C R. Gobert7 pts · 12.3 reb · 1.5 ast Score 98

MINBig

F O. Okongwu11.9 pts · 7.1 reb · 2.6 ast Score 30

TimberwolvesBetterHawks

MIN offense3rd of 30 · +3.7

MINBig

ATL defense18th of 30 · -0.6

MIN defense8th of 30 · +3.6

Even

ATL offense7th of 30 · +2.5

Backcourt+12.6 · 2 players

ATLBig

Backcourt+27.7 · 4 players

Frontcourt+46.4 · 3 players

MINBig

Frontcourt-1.3 · 1 player

Bench+0.3 · 5 players

MINBig

Bench-4.0 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestMIN betterATL betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Timberwolves

Guards

A. Dosunmu29 minL. Ball25 minT. Shannon22 minB. Hyland12 minJ. Clark9 minZ. Pullin8 min

Forwards

J. McDaniels33 minJ. Kuminga30 minC. Williams24 minJ. Beringer19 minT. Lyles16 minI. Evans3 min

Centers

R. Gobert30 min

Out

A. EdwardsOut

Hawks

Guards

N. Alexander-Walker30 minD. Daniels29 minC. McCollum26 minA. Wiggins26 minL. Dort24 min

Forwards

O. Okongwu28 minC. Kispert18 minD. Finney-Smith16 minA. Newell11 minZ. Ejiofor5 min

Out

J. LandaleOutJ. JohnsonDay-To-DayK. FlemingsSuspension

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

MIN120.0 #6

ATL116.3 #13

Points per possession

MIN1.13 #8

ATL1.10 #16

Pace (possessions)

MIN105.4 #9

ATL105.6 #7

Shooting

Effective FG%

MIN55.8 #6

ATL52.6 #19

3-point %

MIN37.6 #6

ATL32.8 #22

3-point attempt rate

MIN42.8 #16

ATL44.7 #11

Free throw rate

MIN26.1 #21

ATL23.4 #26

Possessions

Turnover rate

MIN15.1 #12

ATL13.8 #4

Offensive rebound rate

MIN30.0 #7

ATL27.1 #18

Assists per game

MIN27.3 #11

ATL30.7 #1

Defense

Points allowed

MIN108.7 #8

ATL115.4 #19

Points allowed per possession

MIN1.04 #4

ATL1.10 #17

Opponent effective FG%

MIN50.5 #5

ATL54.5 #22

Opponent 3-point %

MIN31.2 #6

ATL31.9 #7

Turnovers forced

MIN15.6 #17

ATL18.3 #2

Defensive rebound rate

MIN75.4 #8

ATL70.9 #19

Steals per game

MIN9.0 #13

ATL9.4 #8

Blocks per game

MIN4.3 #20

ATL3.7 #29

MIN		ATL
Scoring
120.0 #6	Points per game	116.3 #13
1.13 #8	Points per possession	1.10 #16
105.4 #9	Pace (possessions)	105.6 #7
Shooting
55.8 #6	Effective FG%	52.6 #19
37.6 #6	3-point %	32.8 #22
42.8 #16	3-point attempt rate	44.7 #11
26.1 #21	Free throw rate	23.4 #26
Possessions
15.1 #12	Turnover rate	13.8 #4
30.0 #7	Offensive rebound rate	27.1 #18
27.3 #11	Assists per game	30.7 #1
Defense
108.7 #8	Points allowed	115.4 #19
1.04 #4	Points allowed per possession	1.10 #17
50.5 #5	Opponent effective FG%	54.5 #22
31.2 #6	Opponent 3-point %	31.9 #7
15.6 #17	Turnovers forced	18.3 #2
75.4 #8	Defensive rebound rate	70.9 #19
9.0 #13	Steals per game	9.4 #8
4.3 #20	Blocks per game	3.7 #29

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Timberwolves

4-3 overall · 1-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Spurs111–121
Wvs Clippers127–101
Lvs Warriors114–119
L@ Cavaliers125–127
Wvs Raptors117–94

A week or more of rest.

Hawks

3-4 overall · 3-1 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Pelicans99–121
Wvs Cavaliers114–111
Lvs Heat117–129
L@ Rockets110–120
Lvs Rockets114–121

A week or more of rest.

Timberwolves @ Hawks

What could decide it: MIN has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Timberwolves

Hawks

Timberwolves has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Timberwolves

Hawks