Sacramento Kings at Minnesota Timberwolves: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Mar 31, 8:00 PM ETTarget Center · at Timberwolves · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Kings and Timberwolves
SAC	This season	MIN
0-6	Record	4-3
1-5	ATS	6-1
5-1	O/U	4-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects MIN 128–106 · win probability MIN 93%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 233.9

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: MIN has more of the edges

SAC 0, MIN 8 · 2026-27 so far

MINBig

MIN offense vs SAC defense

Offense 3rd of 30 against a defense 29th, on the model’s ratings

MINBig

Three-pointers

SAC hits 30.4% and allows 39.2%; MIN hits 37.6% and allows 31.2%. Threes are 38.0% and 42.8% of their shots

MINBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: SAC 51.0 and allows 60.4; MIN 55.8 and allows 50.5

MINBig

SAC offense vs MIN defense

Offense 27th of 30 against a defense 8th, on the model’s ratings

MINBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: SAC 22.9%, MIN 30.0%. Defensive: SAC 73.7%, MIN 75.4%

MINBig

Recent form

Last 5: SAC 1-4 ATS, margin -17.8; MIN 4-1 ATS, margin +6.4

MINSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: SAC 15.9%, MIN 15.1%. Forced: SAC 14.6%, MIN 15.6%

MINSmall

Home court

MIN at home. This season: MIN 2-1 at home, SAC 0-4 away

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: SAC 26.4, MIN 26.1. Allowed: SAC 31.2, MIN 28.9

Context

Tempo

About 106 possessions: SAC plays 106.0 a game (6th fastest), MIN 105.4 (9th). Faster games mean more points

Context

Schedule so far

SAC has played the 8th-hardest schedule, MIN the 7th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: SAC 100%, MIN 100%. Transfers in: SAC 0, MIN 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SAC WLLLL	1-5	17%	0-4	—
MIN WWLWW	6-1	86%	2-1	—

Venue/role: SAC away; MIN home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
SAC OOOOO	5-1	83%	0-6
MIN UOOOO	4-3	57%	4-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SAClast 6	0-6 0%	1-5 17%	5-1 83%
MINlast 7	4-3 57%	6-1 86%	4-3 57%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Kings

Date	Game	Last meeting
Apr 2	@ DAL	W130–121WO
Apr 4	vs GS	W124–118WO
Apr 6	@ SA	L103–130LO

Timberwolves

Date	Game	Last meeting
Apr 2	vs GS	L114–119LO
Apr 4	@ DAL	W124–94WU
Apr 6	@ LAC	W127–101WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 18 since 2021-22

SAC 7–11 MINMIN leads · 18 games since 2021-22 · SAC 7-11 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 14, 2025-26	SAC 103 @ MIN 117	MIN -9.5	MIN W
Nov 24, 2025-26	MIN 112 @ SAC 117	SAC +9.5	SAC W
Nov 14, 2025-26	SAC 110 @ MIN 124	MIN -11.5	MIN W
Nov 9, 2025-26	MIN 144 @ SAC 117	SAC +4.5	MIN W
Feb 3, 2024-25	SAC 116 @ MIN 114	MIN -4.5	SAC W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Kings

6 games played

Straight up

0-6

0% wins

Against the spread

1-5

17% covers · avg −10.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-1

83% overs · avg +6.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

0-60%

L L L L L L

6 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

1-517%

L W L L L L

4 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

5-183%

U O O O O O

5 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@LAC	L 96-121	+5.5	L −19.5	226.5	U 217
Oct 23	vsPOR	L 120-128	+9.5	W +1.5	231.5	O 248
Oct 25	vsMEM	L 112-123	+3.5	L −7.5	234.5	O 235
Oct 27	@SA	L 103-130	+19.5	L −7.5	232.5	O 233
Oct 29	@NO	L 120-132	+6.5	L −5.5	234.5	O 252
Oct 31	@MEM	L 105-136	+7.5	L −23.5	229.5	O 241

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

LAC

L 96-121

−19.5

POR

L 120-128

+1.5

MEM

L 112-123

−7.5

L 103-130

−7.5

L 120-132

−5.5

MEM

L 105-136

−23.5

covered 1didn’t cover 5avg −10.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

LAC

L 96-121

−9.5

POR

L 120-128

+16.5

MEM

L 112-123

+0.5

L 103-130

+0.5

L 120-132

+17.5

MEM

L 105-136

+11.5

over 5under 1avg +6.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Timberwolves

7 games played

Straight up

4-3

57% wins

Against the spread

6-1

86% covers · avg +12.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-3

57% overs · avg −2.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-357%

W W W L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

6-186%

W W W W L W W

2 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

4-357%

U U U O O O O

4 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@MIA	W 131-106	+1.5	W +26.5	240.5	U 237
Oct 23	@ORL	W 115-93	+1.5	W +23.5	234.5	U 208
Oct 25	vsTOR	W 117-94	-3.5	W +19.5	228.5	U 211
Oct 26	@CLE	L 125-127	+3.5	W +1.5	234.5	O 252
Oct 28	vsGS	L 114-119	-3.5	L −8.5	227.5	O 233
Oct 30	vsLAC	W 127-101	-6.5	W +19.5	222.5	O 228
Oct 31	@SA	L 111-121	+12.5	W +2.5	230.5	O 232

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MIA

W 131-106

+26.5

ORL

W 115-93

+23.5

TOR

W 117-94

+19.5

CLE

L 125-127

+1.5

L 114-119

−8.5

LAC

W 127-101

+19.5

L 111-121

+2.5

covered 6didn’t cover 1avg +12.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MIA

W 131-106

−3.5

ORL

W 115-93

−26.5

TOR

W 117-94

−17.5

CLE

L 125-127

+17.5

L 114-119

+5.5

LAC

W 127-101

+5.5

L 111-121

+1.5

over 4under 3avg −2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Timberwolves has the better starters

Position by position: Kings 0, Timberwolves 5, even 0

KingsBetterTimberwolves

G D. Acuff26.3 pts · 3.7 reb · 6.3 ast Score 4

MINBig

G A. Dosunmu15.3 pts · 5 reb · 3.4 ast Score 42

F D. Sabonis16 pts · 15.8 reb · 7.3 ast Score 26

MINBig

G L. Ball14.4 pts · 3.4 reb · 6.3 ast Score 91

F D. Hunter14 pts · 5 reb · 1 ast Score 38

MINBig

F J. McDaniels17.3 pts · 6 reb · 3.7 ast Score 96

F P. Achiuwa12.5 pts · 6 reb · 1 ast Score 7

MINBig

F J. Kuminga12.9 pts · 4.7 reb · 2.6 ast Score 92

F L. Black7.1 pts · 5 reb · 1.5 ast Score 13

MINBig

C R. Gobert7 pts · 12.3 reb · 1.5 ast Score 98

KingsBetterTimberwolves

SAC offense27th of 30 · -3.0

MINBig

MIN defense8th of 30 · +3.6

SAC defense29th of 30 · -7.9

MINBig

MIN offense3rd of 30 · +3.7

Backcourt-13.7 · 1 player

MINBig

Backcourt+12.6 · 2 players

Frontcourt-18.6 · 4 players

MINBig

Frontcourt+46.4 · 3 players

Bench-13.2 · 5 players

MINBig

Bench+0.3 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestSAC betterMIN betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Kings

Guards

D. Acuff37 minE. Sharp18 minD. Plowden14 minM. Monk12 minN. Clifford8 minA. FlaglerNew

Forwards

D. Sabonis37 minD. Hunter29 minP. Achiuwa29 minL. Black29 minJ. Mogbo17 minA. Karaban10 min

Out

Z. LaVineDay-To-DayK. MurrayOut

Timberwolves

Guards

A. Dosunmu29 minL. Ball25 minT. Shannon22 minB. Hyland12 minJ. Clark9 minZ. Pullin8 min

Forwards

J. McDaniels33 minJ. Kuminga30 minC. Williams24 minJ. Beringer19 minT. Lyles16 minI. Evans3 min

Centers

R. Gobert30 min

Out

A. EdwardsOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

SAC109.3 #22

MIN120.0 #6

Points per possession

SAC1.03 #28

MIN1.13 #8

Pace (possessions)

SAC106.0 #6

MIN105.4 #9

Shooting

Effective FG%

SAC51.0 #23

MIN55.8 #6

3-point %

SAC30.4 #27

MIN37.6 #6

3-point attempt rate

SAC38.0 #27

MIN42.8 #16

Free throw rate

SAC26.4 #20

MIN26.1 #21

Possessions

Turnover rate

SAC15.9 #19

MIN15.1 #12

Offensive rebound rate

SAC22.9 #28

MIN30.0 #7

Assists per game

SAC24.5 #23

MIN27.3 #11

Defense

Points allowed

SAC128.3 #29

MIN108.7 #8

Points allowed per possession

SAC1.21 #29

MIN1.04 #4

Opponent effective FG%

SAC60.4 #30

MIN50.5 #5

Opponent 3-point %

SAC39.2 #27

MIN31.2 #6

Turnovers forced

SAC14.6 #22

MIN15.6 #17

Defensive rebound rate

SAC73.7 #12

MIN75.4 #8

Steals per game

SAC8.0 #21

MIN9.0 #13

Blocks per game

SAC2.3 #30

MIN4.3 #20

SAC		MIN
Scoring
109.3 #22	Points per game	120.0 #6
1.03 #28	Points per possession	1.13 #8
106.0 #6	Pace (possessions)	105.4 #9
Shooting
51.0 #23	Effective FG%	55.8 #6
30.4 #27	3-point %	37.6 #6
38.0 #27	3-point attempt rate	42.8 #16
26.4 #20	Free throw rate	26.1 #21
Possessions
15.9 #19	Turnover rate	15.1 #12
22.9 #28	Offensive rebound rate	30.0 #7
24.5 #23	Assists per game	27.3 #11
Defense
128.3 #29	Points allowed	108.7 #8
1.21 #29	Points allowed per possession	1.04 #4
60.4 #30	Opponent effective FG%	50.5 #5
39.2 #27	Opponent 3-point %	31.2 #6
14.6 #22	Turnovers forced	15.6 #17
73.7 #12	Defensive rebound rate	75.4 #8
8.0 #21	Steals per game	9.0 #13
2.3 #30	Blocks per game	4.3 #20

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Kings

0-6 overall · 0-6 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Grizzlies105–136
L@ Pelicans120–132
L@ Spurs103–130
Lvs Grizzlies112–123
Lvs Trail Blazers120–128

A week or more of rest.

Timberwolves

4-3 overall · 1-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Spurs111–121
Wvs Clippers127–101
Lvs Warriors114–119
L@ Cavaliers125–127
Wvs Raptors117–94

A week or more of rest.

Kings @ Timberwolves

What could decide it: MIN has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Kings

Timberwolves

Timberwolves has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Kings

Timberwolves