Phoenix Suns at San Antonio Spurs: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Mar 31, 8:00 PM ETFrost Bank Center · at Spurs · Conference game

#21PHXSuns

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Suns and Spurs
PHX	This season	SA
1-3	Record	4-2
0-4	ATS	2-4
3-1	O/U	2-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects SA 120–107 · win probability SA 82%

Pick this game

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 227.2

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: SA has more of the edges

PHX 0, SA 7 · 2026-27 so far

SABig

SA offense vs PHX defense

Offense 5th of 30 against a defense 21st, on the model’s ratings

SABig

PHX offense vs SA defense

Offense 19th of 30 against a defense 7th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

PHX has played the 3rd-hardest schedule, SA the 15th. A record against a soft schedule means less

SABig

Free throws

Free throw rate: PHX 22.8, SA 24.5. Allowed: PHX 31.1, SA 21.7

SABig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: PHX 28.3%, SA 27.2%. Defensive: PHX 65.1%, SA 75.8%

SASmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: PHX 54.4 and allows 58.7; SA 53.3 and allows 52.1

Context

Tempo

About 103 possessions: PHX plays 101.3 a game (26th fastest), SA 104.3 (11th). Faster games mean more points

SASmall

Recent form

Last 4: PHX 0-4 ATS, margin -12.5; SA 2-3 ATS, margin +11.0

SASmall

Home court

SA at home. This season: SA 2-2 at home, PHX 0-2 away

Even

Three-pointers

PHX hits 35.0% and allows 43.9%; SA hits 34.9% and allows 37.3%. Threes are 45.1% and 39.0% of their shots

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: PHX 15.2%, SA 13.1%. Forced: PHX 17.1%, SA 15.7%

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: PHX 100%, SA 100%. Transfers in: PHX 0, SA 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
PHX LLLL	0-4	0%	0-2	—
SA LWWLL	2-4	33%	1-3	—

Venue/role: PHX away; SA home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
PHX UOOO	3-1	75%	1-3
SA UUOUO	2-4	33%	4-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
PHXlast 4	1-3 25%	0-4 0%	3-1 75%
SAlast 6	4-2 67%	2-4 33%	2-4 33%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Suns

Date	Game	Last meeting
Apr 2	vs DEN	L120–127LO
Apr 4	@ LAC	L93–117LO
Apr 6	@ GS	W131–122LO

Spurs

Date	Game	Last meeting
Apr 2	@ LAC	W118–99WU
Apr 4	@ LAL	W136–108WO
Apr 6	vs SAC	W130–103WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 18 since 2021-22

PHX 12–6 SAPHX leads · 18 games since 2021-22 · SA has won the last 2 meetings · PHX 10-8 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 19, 2025-26	PHX 100 @ SA 101	SA -9.5	PHX W
Feb 19, 2025-26	PHX 94 @ SA 121	SA -7.5	SA W
Nov 23, 2025-26	SA 102 @ PHX 111	PHX -1.5	PHX W
Nov 2, 2025-26	SA 118 @ PHX 130	PHX +5.5	PHX W
Apr 11, 2024-25	SA 98 @ PHX 117	PHX -5.5	PHX W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Suns

4 games played

Straight up

1-3

25% wins

Against the spread

0-4

0% covers · avg −10.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-1

75% overs · avg +9.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-325%

L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

0-40%

L L L L

4 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-175%

U O O O

3 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@POR	L 83-124	+3.5	L −37.5	232.5	U 207
Oct 24	vsGS	W 131-122	-9.5	L −0.5	221.5	O 253
Oct 26	@OKC	L 114-125	+8.5	L −2.5	221.5	O 239
Oct 30	vsDEN	L 120-127	+4.5	L −2.5	231.5	O 247

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

POR

L 83-124

−37.5

W 131-122

−0.5

OKC

L 114-125

−2.5

DEN

L 120-127

−2.5

covered 0didn’t cover 4avg −10.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

POR

L 83-124

−25.5

W 131-122

+31.5

OKC

L 114-125

+17.5

DEN

L 120-127

+15.5

over 3under 1avg +9.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Spurs

6 games played

Straight up

4-2

67% wins

Against the spread

2-4

33% covers · avg −3.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg −2.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-267%

L L W W W W

4 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-433%

L L W W L L

2 straight misses ATS2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-433%

U U U O U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 20	vsOKC	L 104-116	+1.5	L −10.5	229.5	U 220
Oct 23	vsHOU	L 110-114	-4.5	L −8.5	224.5	U 224
Oct 24	@DAL	W 122-106	-14.5	W +1.5	229.5	U 228
Oct 27	vsSAC	W 130-103	-19.5	W +7.5	232.5	O 233
Oct 28	@UTAH	W 117-111	-13.5	L −7.5	232.5	U 228
Oct 31	vsMIN	W 121-111	-12.5	L −2.5	230.5	O 232

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

OKC

L 104-116

−10.5

HOU

L 110-114

−8.5

DAL

W 122-106

+1.5

SAC

W 130-103

+7.5

UTAH

W 117-111

−7.5

MIN

W 121-111

−2.5

covered 2didn’t cover 4avg −3.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

OKC

L 104-116

−9.5

HOU

L 110-114

−0.5

DAL

W 122-106

−1.5

SAC

W 130-103

+0.5

UTAH

W 117-111

−4.5

MIN

W 121-111

+1.5

over 2under 4avg −2.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Spurs has the better starters

Position by position: Suns 0, Spurs 3, even 2

SunsBetterSpurs

G D. Booker22.3 pts · 3.8 reb · 5.3 ast Score 92

Even

G D. Harper18.5 pts · 5.5 reb · 4.8 ast Score 98

G J. Green11 pts · 2.5 reb · 2.5 ast Score 11

SABig

G D. Vassell12 pts · 4.2 reb · 3.5 ast Score 53

F M. Bridges16.3 pts · 7.3 reb · 2.3 ast Score 14

SABig

G D. Fox16.5 pts · 4.8 reb · 7 ast Score 84

F D. Brooks16.5 pts · 3 reb · 3 ast Score 59

Even

G S. Castle14.5 pts · 5.8 reb · 5.2 ast Score 69

C K. Maluach8 pts · 7 reb · 1.3 ast Score 16

SABig

F V. Wembanyama28 pts · 10.7 reb · 3 ast Score 98

SunsBetterSpurs

PHX offense19th of 30 · -1.2

SABig

SA defense7th of 30 · +3.7

PHX defense21st of 30 · -1.3

SABig

SA offense5th of 30 · +2.9

Backcourt+10.4 · 2 players

SABig

Backcourt+42.2 · 4 players

Frontcourt-4.6 · 3 players

SABig

Frontcourt+17.3 · 1 player

Bench+1.4 · 5 players

SABig

Bench+19.9 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestPHX betterSA betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Suns

Guards

D. Booker35 minJ. Green27 minC. Gillespie26 minJ. Goodwin21 minP. Spencer18 minL. Kennard15 min

Forwards

M. Bridges33 minD. Brooks29 minO. Ighodaro18 minR. Dunn13 minR. Fleming12 minC. Huntley10 min

Centers

K. Maluach22 minD. Reath8 min

Spurs

Guards

D. Harper34 minD. Vassell33 minD. Fox32 minS. Castle29 minJ. McLaughlin6 minJ. Gillespie2 min

Forwards

V. Wembanyama33 minJ. Champagnie28 minK. Johnson22 minC. Bryant9 minH. Barnes8 minD. Jones Garcia6 min

Centers

L. Kornet15 minT. Reed4 min

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27, 4 games in · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

PHX112.0 #19

SA117.3 #12

Points per possession

PHX1.12 #12

SA1.12 #10

Pace (possessions)

PHX101.3 #26

SA104.3 #11

Shooting

Effective FG%

PHX54.4 #13

SA53.3 #16

3-point %

PHX35.0 #16

SA34.9 #17

3-point attempt rate

PHX45.1 #10

SA39.0 #24

Free throw rate

PHX22.8 #27

SA24.5 #24

Possessions

Turnover rate

PHX15.2 #15

SA13.1 #2

Offensive rebound rate

PHX28.3 #11

SA27.2 #16

Assists per game

PHX27.5 #8

SA27.5 #9

Defense

Points allowed

PHX124.5 #27

SA110.2 #12

Points allowed per possession

PHX1.21 #30

SA1.06 #6

Opponent effective FG%

PHX58.7 #29

SA52.1 #11

Opponent 3-point %

PHX43.9 #30

SA37.3 #23

Turnovers forced

PHX17.1 #7

SA15.7 #14

Defensive rebound rate

PHX65.1 #30

SA75.8 #7

Steals per game

PHX9.0 #15

SA9.2 #10

Blocks per game

PHX5.3 #10

SA7.0 #1

PHX		SA
Scoring
112.0 #19	Points per game	117.3 #12
1.12 #12	Points per possession	1.12 #10
101.3 #26	Pace (possessions)	104.3 #11
Shooting
54.4 #13	Effective FG%	53.3 #16
35.0 #16	3-point %	34.9 #17
45.1 #10	3-point attempt rate	39.0 #24
22.8 #27	Free throw rate	24.5 #24
Possessions
15.2 #15	Turnover rate	13.1 #2
28.3 #11	Offensive rebound rate	27.2 #16
27.5 #8	Assists per game	27.5 #9
Defense
124.5 #27	Points allowed	110.2 #12
1.21 #30	Points allowed per possession	1.06 #6
58.7 #29	Opponent effective FG%	52.1 #11
43.9 #30	Opponent 3-point %	37.3 #23
17.1 #7	Turnovers forced	15.7 #14
65.1 #30	Defensive rebound rate	75.8 #7
9.0 #15	Steals per game	9.2 #10
5.3 #10	Blocks per game	7.0 #1

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Suns

1-3 overall · 1-3 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs Nuggets120–127
L@ Thunder114–125
Wvs Warriors131–122
L@ Trail Blazers83–124

A week or more of rest.

Spurs

4-2 overall · 4-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Timberwolves121–111
W@ Jazz117–111
Wvs Kings130–103
W@ Mavericks122–106
Lvs Rockets110–114

A week or more of rest.

Suns @ Spurs

What could decide it: SA has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Suns

Spurs

Spurs has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Suns

Spurs