Denver Nuggets at Dallas Mavericks: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Mar 31, 9:30 PM ETAmerican Airlines Center · at Mavericks · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Nuggets and Mavericks
DEN	This season	DAL
3-2	Record	4-2
2-3	ATS	4-2
3-2	O/U	2-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects DAL 118–116 · win probability DAL 53%

Pick this game

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 233.8

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it

DEN 3, DAL 3 · 2026-27 so far

Context

Schedule so far

DEN has played the 18th-hardest schedule, DAL the 2nd. A record against a soft schedule means less

DENBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: DEN 31.3, DAL 21.4. Allowed: DEN 21.5, DAL 27.2

DALBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: DEN 54.7 and allows 54.2; DAL 56.9 and allows 51.3

DENSmall

DEN offense vs DAL defense

Offense 8th of 30 against a defense 16th, on the model’s ratings

DENSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: DEN 16.4%, DAL 16.8%. Forced: DEN 15.9%, DAL 14.5%

DALSmall

Recent form

Last 5: DEN 2-3 ATS, margin -1.2; DAL 4-1 ATS, margin +6.6

DALSmall

Home court

DAL at home. This season: DAL 2-1 at home, DEN 2-1 away

Even

DAL offense vs DEN defense

Offense 16th of 30 against a defense 19th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Three-pointers

DEN hits 37.4% and allows 35.0%; DAL hits 35.1% and allows 29.7%. Threes are 40.9% and 42.1% of their shots

Context

Tempo

About 102 possessions: DEN plays 102.1 a game (21st fastest), DAL 102.8 (18th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: DEN 27.5%, DAL 27.8%. Defensive: DEN 70.5%, DAL 69.4%

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: DEN 100%, DAL 100%. Transfers in: DEN 0, DAL 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
DEN LLLWW	2-3	40%	2-1	—
DAL WLWWW	4-2	67%	2-1	—

Venue/role: DEN away; DAL home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
DEN UOOUO	3-2	60%	3-2
DAL UUUUO	2-4	33%	4-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
DENlast 5	3-2 60%	2-3 40%	3-2 60%
DALlast 6	4-2 67%	4-2 67%	2-4 33%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Nuggets

Date	Game	Last meeting
Apr 2	@ PHX	W127–120WO
Apr 4	vs MEM	W136–119LO
Apr 6	vs NO	W104–91WU

Mavericks

Date	Game	Last meeting
Apr 2	vs SAC	L121–130LO
Apr 4	vs MIN	L94–124LU
Apr 6	@ LAL	W134–128WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 18 since 2021-22

DEN 10–8 DALDEN leads · 18 games since 2021-22 · DEN has won the last 2 meetings · DEN 8-10 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 25, 2025-26	DAL 135 @ DEN 142	DEN -10.5	DAL W
Jan 14, 2025-26	DEN 118 @ DAL 109	DAL -1.5	DEN W
Dec 23, 2025-26	DEN 130 @ DAL 131	DAL +6.5	DAL W
Dec 1, 2025-26	DAL 131 @ DEN 121	DEN -11.5	DAL W
Jan 14, 2024-25	DEN 118 @ DAL 99	DAL +2.5	DEN W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Nuggets

5 games played

Straight up

3-2

60% wins

Against the spread

2-3

40% covers · avg −5.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-2

60% overs · avg −7.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-260%

L W L W W

2 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-340%

L L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-260%

U O O U O

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 22	@OKC	L 84-96	+7.5	L −4.5	236.5	U 180
Oct 24	vsNO	W 141-135	-11.5	L −5.5	239.5	O 276
Oct 26	vsGS	L 114-134	-6.5	L −26.5	236.5	O 248
Oct 28	@NO	W 104-91	-4.5	W +8.5	241.5	U 195
Oct 30	@PHX	W 127-120	-4.5	W +2.5	231.5	O 247

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

OKC

L 84-96

−4.5

W 141-135

−5.5

L 114-134

−26.5

W 104-91

+8.5

PHX

W 127-120

+2.5

covered 2didn’t cover 3avg −5.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

OKC

L 84-96

−56.5

W 141-135

+36.5

L 114-134

+11.5

W 104-91

−46.5

PHX

W 127-120

+15.5

over 3under 2avg −7.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Mavericks

6 games played

Straight up

4-2

67% wins

Against the spread

4-2

67% covers · avg +10.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg −6 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-267%

L W L W W W

3 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

4-267%

L W L W W W

3 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-433%

O U U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@HOU	L 110-128	+9.5	L −8.5	230.5	O 238
Oct 23	@IND	W 121-105	+7.5	W +23.5	241.5	U 226
Oct 24	vsSA	L 106-122	+14.5	L −1.5	229.5	U 228
Oct 26	@MIA	W 113-109	+7.5	W +11.5	240.5	U 222
Oct 28	vsOKC	W 120-96	+4.5	W +28.5	227.5	U 216
Oct 30	vsHOU	W 116-111	+5.5	W +10.5	223.5	O 227

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

HOU

L 110-128

−8.5

IND

W 121-105

+23.5

L 106-122

−1.5

MIA

W 113-109

+11.5

OKC

W 120-96

+28.5

HOU

W 116-111

+10.5

covered 4didn’t cover 2avg +10.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

HOU

L 110-128

+7.5

IND

W 121-105

−15.5

L 106-122

−1.5

MIA

W 113-109

−18.5

OKC

W 120-96

−11.5

HOU

W 116-111

+3.5

over 2under 4avg −6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Nuggets has the better starters

Position by position: Nuggets 4, Mavericks 0, even 1

NuggetsBetterMavericks

G J. Murray25.8 pts · 5.6 reb · 5.6 ast Score 40

DENSmall

G M. Christie8.3 pts · 3.8 reb · 2 ast Score 9

G C. Braun15.4 pts · 4.2 reb · 2 ast Score 66

Even

F P. Washington13.8 pts · 8.2 reb · 1.2 ast Score 78

F A. Gordon12.8 pts · 6 reb · 3 ast Score 74

DENSmall

F C. Flagg26.8 pts · 6 reb · 6.6 ast Score 49

F C. Johnson8.5 pts · 5.5 reb · 2 ast Score 98

DENSmall

F Z. Risacher9.5 pts · 6 reb · 1.7 ast Score 65

C N. Jokic21.2 pts · 9.8 reb · 9.2 ast Score 86

DENBig

F D. Gafford8.5 pts · 7 reb · 2.5 ast Score 46

NuggetsBetterMavericks

DEN offense8th of 30 · +2.5

DENSmall

DAL defense16th of 30 · -0.1

DEN defense19th of 30 · -0.9

Even

DAL offense16th of 30 · +0.6

Backcourt+7.7 · 2 players

DENBig

Backcourt-6.6 · 1 player

Frontcourt+35.7 · 3 players

DENBig

Frontcourt+16.0 · 4 players

Bench-4.0 · 5 players

DALBig

Bench+2.7 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestDEN betterDAL betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Nuggets

Guards

J. Murray38 minC. Braun36 minD. DeRozan26 minR. Nembhard20 minT. Jones10 min

Forwards

A. Gordon30 minC. Johnson23 minT. Brazile23 minC. Whitmore17 minB. Hopkins17 minM. Bagley12 min

Centers

N. Jokic37 min

Out

A. DialloOut

Mavericks

Guards

M. Christie27 minM. Sasser19 minJ. Howard12 min

Forwards

P. Washington34 minC. Flagg32 minZ. Risacher30 minD. Gafford24 minN. Marshall28 minC. Martin20 min

Centers

M. Cisse14 min

Out

S. de LarreaOutK. IrvingDay-To-Day

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

DEN114.0 #15

DAL114.3 #14

Points per possession

DEN1.13 #9

DAL1.12 #11

Pace (possessions)

DEN102.1 #21

DAL102.8 #18

Shooting

Effective FG%

DEN54.7 #11

DAL56.9 #2

3-point %

DEN37.4 #7

DAL35.1 #14

3-point attempt rate

DEN40.9 #22

DAL42.1 #18

Free throw rate

DEN31.3 #11

DAL21.4 #29

Possessions

Turnover rate

DEN16.4 #21

DAL16.8 #23

Offensive rebound rate

DEN27.5 #15

DAL27.8 #13

Assists per game

DEN26.8 #14

DAL27.0 #12

Defense

Points allowed

DEN115.2 #18

DAL111.8 #14

Points allowed per possession

DEN1.12 #20

DAL1.08 #13

Opponent effective FG%

DEN54.2 #20

DAL51.3 #9

Opponent 3-point %

DEN35.0 #15

DAL29.7 #2

Turnovers forced

DEN15.9 #11

DAL14.5 #24

Defensive rebound rate

DEN70.5 #22

DAL69.4 #25

Steals per game

DEN10.2 #5

DAL8.8 #16

Blocks per game

DEN4.4 #18

DAL6.8 #2

DEN		DAL
Scoring
114.0 #15	Points per game	114.3 #14
1.13 #9	Points per possession	1.12 #11
102.1 #21	Pace (possessions)	102.8 #18
Shooting
54.7 #11	Effective FG%	56.9 #2
37.4 #7	3-point %	35.1 #14
40.9 #22	3-point attempt rate	42.1 #18
31.3 #11	Free throw rate	21.4 #29
Possessions
16.4 #21	Turnover rate	16.8 #23
27.5 #15	Offensive rebound rate	27.8 #13
26.8 #14	Assists per game	27.0 #12
Defense
115.2 #18	Points allowed	111.8 #14
1.12 #20	Points allowed per possession	1.08 #13
54.2 #20	Opponent effective FG%	51.3 #9
35.0 #15	Opponent 3-point %	29.7 #2
15.9 #11	Turnovers forced	14.5 #24
70.5 #22	Defensive rebound rate	69.4 #25
10.2 #5	Steals per game	8.8 #16
4.4 #18	Blocks per game	6.8 #2

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Nuggets

3-2 overall · 3-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Suns127–120
W@ Pelicans104–91
Lvs Warriors114–134
Wvs Pelicans141–135
L@ Thunder84–96

A week or more of rest.

Mavericks

4-2 overall · 2-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Rockets116–111
Wvs Thunder120–96
W@ Heat113–109
Lvs Spurs106–122
W@ Pacers121–105

A week or more of rest.

Nuggets @ Mavericks

What could decide it

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Nuggets

Mavericks

Nuggets has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Nuggets

Mavericks