LA Clippers at Atlanta Hawks: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Mar 31, 7:00 PM ETState Farm Arena · at Hawks

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Clippers and Hawks
LAC	This season	ATL
1-5	Record	3-4
3-3	ATS	3-4
3-3	O/U	4-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects ATL 116–112 · win probability ATL 62%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 228.0

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: ATL has more of the edges

LAC 1, ATL 4 · 2026-27 so far

ATLBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: LAC 20.4%, ATL 13.8%. Forced: LAC 17.0%, ATL 18.3%

LACBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: LAC 28.0, ATL 23.4. Allowed: LAC 24.7, ATL 32.1

ATLBig

LAC offense vs ATL defense

Offense 28th of 30 against a defense 18th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Tempo

About 104 possessions: LAC plays 101.7 a game (23rd fastest), ATL 105.6 (7th). Faster games mean more points

ATLSmall

ATL offense vs LAC defense

Offense 7th of 30 against a defense 12th, on the model’s ratings

ATLSmall

Home court

ATL at home. This season: ATL 1-2 at home, LAC 0-4 away

Even

Recent form

Last 5: LAC 2-3 ATS, margin -13.8; ATL 1-4 ATS, margin -9.6

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: LAC 52.9 and allows 56.9; ATL 52.6 and allows 54.5

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: LAC 26.5%, ATL 27.1%. Defensive: LAC 70.9%, ATL 70.9%

Even

Three-pointers

LAC hits 38.6% and allows 38.2%; ATL hits 32.8% and allows 31.9%. Threes are 42.3% and 44.7% of their shots

Context

Schedule so far

LAC has played the 10th-hardest schedule, ATL the 9th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: LAC 100%, ATL 100%. Transfers in: LAC 0, ATL 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LAC WWLLL	3-3	50%	2-2	—
ATL LLLWL	3-4	43%	1-2	—

Venue/role: LAC away; ATL home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
LAC OUUOO	3-3	50%	1-5
ATL OOOUU	4-3	57%	3-4

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LAClast 6	1-5 17%	3-3 50%	3-3 50%
ATLlast 7	3-4 43%	3-4 43%	4-3 57%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Clippers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Apr 2	vs SA	L99–118LU
Apr 4	vs PHX	W117–93WO
Apr 6	vs MIN	L101–127LO

Hawks

Date	Game	Last meeting
Apr 2	@ TOR	L100–118LU
Apr 4	@ PHI	W125–116WO
Apr 6	vs NY	L89–140LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

LAC 6–4 ATLLAC leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · LAC 7-3 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 3, 2025-26	LAC 115 @ ATL 92	ATL -1.5	LAC W
Nov 10, 2025-26	ATL 105 @ LAC 102	LAC -4.5	ATL W
Mar 14, 2024-25	LAC 121 @ ATL 98	ATL +4.5	LAC W
Jan 4, 2024-25	ATL 105 @ LAC 131	LAC -7.5	LAC W
Mar 17, 2023-24	ATL 110 @ LAC 93	LAC -9.5	ATL W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Clippers

6 games played

Straight up

1-5

17% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg −3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg −3.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-517%

W L L L L L

5 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

W W W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-350%

U O U U O O

2 straight overs2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsSAC	W 121-96	-5.5	W +19.5	226.5	U 217
Oct 23	@LAL	L 117-125	+8.5	W +0.5	225.5	O 242
Oct 25	@OKC	L 101-108	+16.5	W +9.5	223.5	U 209
Oct 28	vsLAL	L 87-103	-1.5	L −17.5	224.5	U 190
Oct 30	@MIN	L 101-127	+6.5	L −19.5	222.5	O 228
Nov 1	@GS	L 112-124	+1.5	L −10.5	220.5	O 236

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SAC

W 121-96

+19.5

LAL

L 117-125

+0.5

OKC

L 101-108

+9.5

LAL

L 87-103

−17.5

MIN

L 101-127

−19.5

L 112-124

−10.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg −3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SAC

W 121-96

−9.5

LAL

L 117-125

+16.5

OKC

L 101-108

−14.5

LAL

L 87-103

−34.5

MIN

L 101-127

+5.5

L 112-124

+15.5

over 3under 3avg −3.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Hawks

7 games played

Straight up

3-4

43% wins

Against the spread

3-4

43% covers · avg +0.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-3

57% overs · avg −2.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-443%

W W L L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-443%

W W L L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

4-357%

O U O O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@ORL	W 132-125	+2.5	W +9.5	233.5	O 257
Oct 23	@CHA	W 128-81	-2.5	W +44.5	226.5	U 209
Oct 24	vsHOU	L 114-121	+1.5	L −5.5	227.5	O 235
Oct 26	@HOU	L 110-120	+4.5	L −5.5	228.5	O 230
Oct 28	vsMIA	L 117-129	-2.5	L −14.5	243.5	O 246
Oct 29	vsCLE	W 114-111	-1.5	W +1.5	237.5	U 225
Oct 31	@NO	L 99-121	-5.5	L −27.5	239.5	U 220

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

ORL

W 132-125

+9.5

CHA

W 128-81

+44.5

HOU

L 114-121

−5.5

HOU

L 110-120

−5.5

MIA

L 117-129

−14.5

CLE

W 114-111

+1.5

L 99-121

−27.5

covered 3didn’t cover 4avg +0.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

ORL

W 132-125

+23.5

CHA

W 128-81

−17.5

HOU

L 114-121

+7.5

HOU

L 110-120

+1.5

MIA

L 117-129

+2.5

CLE

W 114-111

−12.5

L 99-121

−19.5

over 4under 3avg −2.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Hawks has the better starters

Position by position: Clippers 0, Hawks 4, even 1

ClippersBetterHawks

G D. Garland20.8 pts · 1.3 reb · 6.3 ast Score 27

ATLBig

G N. Alexander-Walker19.3 pts · 3.1 reb · 2.6 ast Score 67

G K. Dunn8.5 pts · 3.8 reb · 5.3 ast Score 25

ATLBig

G D. Daniels10.3 pts · 5 reb · 4.1 ast Score 87

G K. Sanders8.5 pts · 3 reb · 2 ast Score 31

ATLSmall

G C. McCollum14.4 pts · 1.9 reb · 2.9 ast Score 59

F R. Hachimura13.4 pts · 6 reb · 0.6 ast Score 83

Even

G A. Wiggins14.7 pts · 3.7 reb · 1.9 ast Score 78

F I. Jackson8 pts · 6.2 reb · 2.3 ast Score 8

ATLSmall

F O. Okongwu11.9 pts · 7.1 reb · 2.6 ast Score 30

ClippersBetterHawks

LAC offense28th of 30 · -3.5

ATLSmall

ATL defense18th of 30 · -0.6

LAC defense12th of 30 · +1.7

ATLSmall

ATL offense7th of 30 · +2.5

Backcourt-5.9 · 3 players

ATLBig

Backcourt+27.7 · 4 players

Frontcourt+3.6 · 2 players

LACBig

Frontcourt-1.3 · 1 player

Bench+3.5 · 5 players

LACBig

Bench-4.0 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestLAC betterATL betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Clippers

Guards

D. Garland33 minK. Dunn30 minK. Sanders23 minK. Wagler25 minJ. Pickett16 minG. Dick14 min

Forwards

R. Hachimura30 minI. Jackson22 minB. Miller8 minN. Martinelli5 min

Centers

B. Lopez22 min

Out

D. JonesDay-To-Day

Hawks

Guards

N. Alexander-Walker30 minD. Daniels29 minC. McCollum26 minA. Wiggins26 minL. Dort24 min

Forwards

O. Okongwu28 minC. Kispert18 minD. Finney-Smith16 minA. Newell11 minZ. Ejiofor5 min

Out

J. LandaleOutJ. JohnsonDay-To-DayK. FlemingsSuspension

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

LAC106.5 #28

ATL116.3 #13

Points per possession

LAC1.04 #27

ATL1.10 #16

Pace (possessions)

LAC101.7 #23

ATL105.6 #7

Shooting

Effective FG%

LAC52.9 #18

ATL52.6 #19

3-point %

LAC38.6 #5

ATL32.8 #22

3-point attempt rate

LAC42.3 #17

ATL44.7 #11

Free throw rate

LAC28.0 #17

ATL23.4 #26

Possessions

Turnover rate

LAC20.4 #30

ATL13.8 #4

Offensive rebound rate

LAC26.5 #21

ATL27.1 #18

Assists per game

LAC24.3 #26

ATL30.7 #1

Defense

Points allowed

LAC113.8 #15

ATL115.4 #19

Points allowed per possession

LAC1.13 #22

ATL1.10 #17

Opponent effective FG%

LAC56.9 #28

ATL54.5 #22

Opponent 3-point %

LAC38.2 #26

ATL31.9 #7

Turnovers forced

LAC17.0 #8

ATL18.3 #2

Defensive rebound rate

LAC70.9 #20

ATL70.9 #19

Steals per game

LAC11.3 #3

ATL9.4 #8

Blocks per game

LAC4.2 #22

ATL3.7 #29

LAC		ATL
Scoring
106.5 #28	Points per game	116.3 #13
1.04 #27	Points per possession	1.10 #16
101.7 #23	Pace (possessions)	105.6 #7
Shooting
52.9 #18	Effective FG%	52.6 #19
38.6 #5	3-point %	32.8 #22
42.3 #17	3-point attempt rate	44.7 #11
28.0 #17	Free throw rate	23.4 #26
Possessions
20.4 #30	Turnover rate	13.8 #4
26.5 #21	Offensive rebound rate	27.1 #18
24.3 #26	Assists per game	30.7 #1
Defense
113.8 #15	Points allowed	115.4 #19
1.13 #22	Points allowed per possession	1.10 #17
56.9 #28	Opponent effective FG%	54.5 #22
38.2 #26	Opponent 3-point %	31.9 #7
17.0 #8	Turnovers forced	18.3 #2
70.9 #20	Defensive rebound rate	70.9 #19
11.3 #3	Steals per game	9.4 #8
4.2 #22	Blocks per game	3.7 #29

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Clippers

1-5 overall · 1-5 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Warriors112–124
L@ Timberwolves101–127
Lvs Lakers87–103
L@ Thunder101–108
L@ Lakers117–125

A week or more of rest.

Hawks

3-4 overall · 3-1 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Pelicans99–121
Wvs Cavaliers114–111
Lvs Heat117–129
L@ Rockets110–120
Lvs Rockets114–121

A week or more of rest.

Clippers @ Hawks

What could decide it: ATL has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Clippers

Hawks

Hawks has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Clippers

Hawks