Denver Nuggets at Brooklyn Nets: Model Line and Edge

Thu, Mar 25, 7:30 PM ETBarclays Center · at Nets

#27BKNNets

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Nuggets and Nets
DEN	This season	BKN
3-2	Record	1-5
2-3	ATS	3-3
3-2	O/U	3-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects DEN 119–110 · win probability DEN 73%

Pick this game

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 228.6

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: DEN has more of the edges

DEN 5, BKN 2 · 2026-27 so far

DENBig

DEN offense vs BKN defense

Offense 8th of 30 against a defense 22nd, on the model’s ratings

DENBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: DEN 31.3, BKN 32.9. Allowed: DEN 21.5, BKN 33.5

DENBig

BKN offense vs DEN defense

Offense 29th of 30 against a defense 19th, on the model’s ratings

DENBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: DEN 54.7 and allows 54.2; BKN 50.7 and allows 55.3

DENSmall

Three-pointers

DEN hits 37.4% and allows 35.0%; BKN hits 35.1% and allows 35.8%. Threes are 40.9% and 48.0% of their shots

BKNSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: DEN 27.5%, BKN 25.4%. Defensive: DEN 70.5%, BKN 77.8%

Context

Tempo

About 104 possessions: DEN plays 102.1 a game (21st fastest), BKN 105.1 (10th). Faster games mean more points

BKNSmall

Home court

BKN at home. This season: BKN 0-3 at home, DEN 2-1 away

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: DEN 16.4%, BKN 18.2%. Forced: DEN 15.9%, BKN 15.9%

Even

Recent form

Last 5: DEN 2-3 ATS, margin -1.2; BKN 3-2 ATS, margin -8.0

Context

Schedule so far

DEN has played the 18th-hardest schedule, BKN the 19th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: DEN 100%, BKN 100%. Transfers in: DEN 0, BKN 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
DEN LLLWW	2-3	40%	2-1	—
BKN WLWLW	3-3	50%	0-3	—

Venue/role: DEN away; BKN home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
DEN UOOUO	3-2	60%	3-2
BKN OOOUU	3-3	50%	1-5

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
DENlast 5	3-2 60%	2-3 40%	3-2 60%
BKNlast 6	1-5 17%	3-3 50%	3-3 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Nuggets

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 28	vs PHI	W124–96WU
Mar 29	@ SAC	W136–105WO
Mar 31	@ DAL	W142–135LO

Nets

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 28	vs MEM	W126–115WO
Mar 29	vs GS	L106–109WU
Mar 31	vs CLE	L121–125WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

DEN 8–2 BKNDEN leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · DEN 5-5 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Jan 29, 2025-26	BKN 103 @ DEN 107	DEN -6.5	BKN W
Jan 4, 2025-26	DEN 115 @ BKN 127	BKN +2.5	BKN W
Jan 10, 2024-25	BKN 105 @ DEN 124	DEN -14.5	DEN W
Oct 29, 2024-25	DEN 144 @ BKN 139	BKN +5.5	BKN W
Dec 22, 2023-24	DEN 122 @ BKN 117	BKN +5.5	BKN W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Nuggets

5 games played

Straight up

3-2

60% wins

Against the spread

2-3

40% covers · avg −5.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-2

60% overs · avg −7.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-260%

L W L W W

2 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-340%

L L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-260%

U O O U O

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 22	@OKC	L 84-96	+7.5	L −4.5	236.5	U 180
Oct 24	vsNO	W 141-135	-11.5	L −5.5	239.5	O 276
Oct 26	vsGS	L 114-134	-6.5	L −26.5	236.5	O 248
Oct 28	@NO	W 104-91	-4.5	W +8.5	241.5	U 195
Oct 30	@PHX	W 127-120	-4.5	W +2.5	231.5	O 247

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

OKC

L 84-96

−4.5

W 141-135

−5.5

L 114-134

−26.5

W 104-91

+8.5

PHX

W 127-120

+2.5

covered 2didn’t cover 3avg −5.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

OKC

L 84-96

−56.5

W 141-135

+36.5

L 114-134

+11.5

W 104-91

−46.5

PHX

W 127-120

+15.5

over 3under 2avg −7.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Nets

6 games played

Straight up

1-5

17% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg −0.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg −2 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-517%

L L L L L W

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-350%

L W L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-350%

U O O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsCHA	L 103-110	+1.5	L −5.5	220.5	U 213
Oct 24	@CLE	L 121-125	+11.5	W +7.5	228.5	O 246
Oct 25	vsIND	L 109-136	+5.5	L −21.5	231.5	O 245
Oct 27	@BOS	L 124-125	+13.5	W +12.5	223.5	O 249
Oct 30	vsDET	L 94-110	+8.5	L −7.5	222.5	U 204
Nov 1	@IND	W 98-90	+3.5	W +11.5	230.5	U 188

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CHA

L 103-110

−5.5

CLE

L 121-125

+7.5

IND

L 109-136

−21.5

BOS

L 124-125

+12.5

DET

L 94-110

−7.5

IND

W 98-90

+11.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg −0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CHA

L 103-110

−7.5

CLE

L 121-125

+17.5

IND

L 109-136

+13.5

BOS

L 124-125

+25.5

DET

L 94-110

−18.5

IND

W 98-90

−42.5

over 3under 3avg −2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Nuggets has the better starters

Position by position: Nuggets 4, Nets 0, even 1

NuggetsBetterNets

G J. Murray25.8 pts · 5.6 reb · 5.6 ast Score 40

DENSmall

G K. Ellis5 pts · 2 reb · 2.3 ast Score 21

G C. Braun15.4 pts · 4.2 reb · 2 ast Score 66

DENBig

G N. Traore10.5 pts · 1.8 reb · 2.7 ast Score 1

F A. Gordon12.8 pts · 6 reb · 3 ast Score 74

DENBig

F J. Randle20.8 pts · 7.2 reb · 5.3 ast Score 39

F C. Johnson8.5 pts · 5.5 reb · 2 ast Score 98

Even

F M. Porter21.2 pts · 7.3 reb · 1.3 ast Score 91

C N. Jokic21.2 pts · 9.8 reb · 9.2 ast Score 86

DENBig

C D. Sharpe8 pts · 7.7 reb · 1.7 ast Score 6

NuggetsBetterNets

DEN offense8th of 30 · +2.5

DENBig

BKN defense22nd of 30 · -1.7

DEN defense19th of 30 · -0.9

DENSmall

BKN offense29th of 30 · -5.5

Backcourt+7.7 · 2 players

DENBig

Backcourt-12.0 · 2 players

Frontcourt+35.7 · 3 players

DENBig

Frontcourt+7.8 · 3 players

Bench-4.0 · 5 players

DENBig

Bench-17.9 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestDEN betterBKN betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Nuggets

Guards

J. Murray38 minC. Braun36 minD. DeRozan26 minR. Nembhard20 minT. Jones10 min

Forwards

A. Gordon30 minC. Johnson23 minT. Brazile23 minC. Whitmore17 minB. Hopkins17 minM. Bagley12 min

Centers

N. Jokic37 min

Out

A. DialloOut

Nets

Guards

K. Ellis24 minN. Traore21 minT. Mann24 minD. Powell21 minB. Saraf21 min

Forwards

J. Randle34 minM. Porter32 minC. Johnson22 minN. Clowney22 minD. Wolf21 minJ. Minott11 min

Centers

D. Sharpe23 minM. Wagner19 min

Out

M. BrownDay-To-DayE. DeminOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

DEN114.0 #15

BKN108.2 #25

Points per possession

DEN1.13 #9

BKN1.03 #29

Pace (possessions)

DEN102.1 #21

BKN105.1 #10

Shooting

Effective FG%

DEN54.7 #11

BKN50.7 #26

3-point %

DEN37.4 #7

BKN35.1 #15

3-point attempt rate

DEN40.9 #22

BKN48.0 #3

Free throw rate

DEN31.3 #11

BKN32.9 #6

Possessions

Turnover rate

DEN16.4 #21

BKN18.2 #27

Offensive rebound rate

DEN27.5 #15

BKN25.4 #23

Assists per game

DEN26.8 #14

BKN22.8 #28

Defense

Points allowed

DEN115.2 #18

BKN116.0 #21

Points allowed per possession

DEN1.12 #20

BKN1.11 #18

Opponent effective FG%

DEN54.2 #20

BKN55.3 #23

Opponent 3-point %

DEN35.0 #15

BKN35.8 #19

Turnovers forced

DEN15.9 #11

BKN15.9 #12

Defensive rebound rate

DEN70.5 #22

BKN77.8 #2

Steals per game

DEN10.2 #5

BKN9.0 #14

Blocks per game

DEN4.4 #18

BKN4.7 #17

DEN		BKN
Scoring
114.0 #15	Points per game	108.2 #25
1.13 #9	Points per possession	1.03 #29
102.1 #21	Pace (possessions)	105.1 #10
Shooting
54.7 #11	Effective FG%	50.7 #26
37.4 #7	3-point %	35.1 #15
40.9 #22	3-point attempt rate	48.0 #3
31.3 #11	Free throw rate	32.9 #6
Possessions
16.4 #21	Turnover rate	18.2 #27
27.5 #15	Offensive rebound rate	25.4 #23
26.8 #14	Assists per game	22.8 #28
Defense
115.2 #18	Points allowed	116.0 #21
1.12 #20	Points allowed per possession	1.11 #18
54.2 #20	Opponent effective FG%	55.3 #23
35.0 #15	Opponent 3-point %	35.8 #19
15.9 #11	Turnovers forced	15.9 #12
70.5 #22	Defensive rebound rate	77.8 #2
10.2 #5	Steals per game	9.0 #14
4.4 #18	Blocks per game	4.7 #17

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Nuggets

3-2 overall · 3-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Suns127–120
W@ Pelicans104–91
Lvs Warriors114–134
Wvs Pelicans141–135
L@ Thunder84–96

A week or more of rest.

Nets

1-5 overall · 1-5 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Pacers98–90
Lvs Pistons94–110
L@ Celtics124–125
Lvs Pacers109–136
L@ Cavaliers121–125

A week or more of rest.

Nuggets @ Nets

What could decide it: DEN has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Nuggets

Nets

Nuggets has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Nuggets

Nets