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NBA · Thu, Mar 25

Spurs @ Pacers

Gainbridge Fieldhouse · at Pacers
#3SASpurs
@
#25INDPacers
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
SAThis seasonIND
4-2Record2-5
2-4ATS3-4
2-4O/U3-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects SA 120–108 · win probability SA 81%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 228.8
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: SA has more of the edges

SA 5, IND 1 · 2026-27 so far
SABig
SA offense vs IND defense
Offense 5th of 30 against a defense 25th, on the model’s ratings
SABig
IND offense vs SA defense
Offense 24th of 30 against a defense 7th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
SA has played the 15th-hardest schedule, IND the 29th. A record against a soft schedule means less
SABig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: SA 27.2%, IND 23.1%. Defensive: SA 75.8%, IND 72.7%
SASmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: SA 13.1%, IND 14.8%. Forced: SA 15.7%, IND 14.9%
SASmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: SA 24.5, IND 31.2. Allowed: SA 21.7, IND 32.1
INDSmall
Home court
IND at home. This season: IND 0-3 at home, SA 2-0 away
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: SA 53.3 and allows 52.1; IND 53.9 and allows 53.9
Context
Tempo
About 104 possessions: SA plays 104.3 a game (11th fastest), IND 103.1 (15th). Faster games mean more points
Even
Three-pointers
SA hits 34.9% and allows 37.3%; IND hits 34.1% and allows 35.9%. Threes are 39.0% and 43.1% of their shots
Even
Recent form
Last 5: SA 2-3 ATS, margin +11.0; IND 2-3 ATS, margin -2.8
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: SA 100%, IND 100%. Transfers in: SA 0, IND 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market vs model

The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edge
Spread
Market—
ModelSA -12.0
Model edge—
Total
Market—
Model228.8
Model edge—
Projected score
SA 120.4 · IND 108.4
Win probability
SA 81%
1st half
Spread
SA -7.0
Total
114.6
Projected score
SA 60.8 · IND 53.8
Model edge = where the model differs from the market, in points: a reason to look, not a trend. The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. Model record › · 1st-half slate ›

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Spurs has the better starters

Position by position: Spurs 4, Pacers 0, even 1
SpursBetterPacers
G D. Harper18.5 pts · 5.5 reb · 4.8 ast Score 98
SASmall
G A. Nembhard18.5 pts · 2.2 reb · 7.3 ast Score 70
G D. Vassell12 pts · 4.2 reb · 3.5 ast Score 53
SASmall
G K. Oubre9.4 pts · 2.6 reb · 1.6 ast Score 32
G D. Fox16.5 pts · 4.8 reb · 7 ast Score 84
SASmall
G A. Nesmith12.2 pts · 2.2 reb · 1.8 ast Score 65
G S. Castle14.5 pts · 5.8 reb · 5.2 ast Score 69
Even
F P. Siakam21.4 pts · 7.4 reb · 4 ast Score 74
F V. Wembanyama28 pts · 10.7 reb · 3 ast Score 98
SABig
C J. Huff6 pts · 3.3 reb · 1 ast Score 10
SpursBetterPacers
SA offense5th of 30 · +2.9
SABig
IND defense25th of 30 · -3.8
SA defense7th of 30 · +3.7
SABig
IND offense24th of 30 · -2.3
Backcourt+42.2 · 4 players
SABig
Backcourt+10.3 · 3 players
Frontcourt+17.3 · 1 player
SABig
Frontcourt+4.0 · 2 players
Bench+19.9 · 5 players
SABig
Bench-26.3 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestSA betterIND betterNEW no NBA numbers yet
Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Spurs
Guards
D. Harper34 minD. Vassell33 minD. Fox32 minS. Castle29 minJ. McLaughlin6 minJ. Gillespie2 min
Forwards
V. Wembanyama33 minJ. Champagnie28 minK. Johnson22 minC. Bryant9 minH. Barnes8 minD. Jones Garcia6 min
Centers
L. Kornet15 minT. Reed4 min
Pacers
Guards
A. Nembhard33 minK. Oubre23 minA. Nesmith23 minQ. Jackson20 minK. Brown12 minB. Smith6 min
Forwards
P. Siakam32 minJ. Walker22 minL. Nance16 minJ. Slawson13 min
Centers
J. Huff17 min
Out
I. ZubacOutO. ToppinDay-To-DayT. HaliburtonOutB. SheppardOut
In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
SAIND
Scoring
117.3 #12Points per game112.9 #18
1.12 #10Points per possession1.10 #17
104.3 #11Pace (possessions)103.1 #15
Shooting
53.3 #16Effective FG%53.9 #14
34.9 #173-point %34.1 #18
39.0 #243-point attempt rate43.1 #15
24.5 #24Free throw rate31.2 #12
Possessions
13.1 #2Turnover rate14.8 #10
27.2 #16Offensive rebound rate23.1 #27
27.5 #9Assists per game28.0 #7
Defense
110.2 #12Points allowed116.7 #23
1.06 #6Points allowed per possession1.13 #23
52.1 #11Opponent effective FG%53.9 #19
37.3 #23Opponent 3-point %35.9 #20
15.7 #14Turnovers forced14.9 #19
75.8 #7Defensive rebound rate72.7 #16
9.2 #10Steals per game6.9 #27
7.0 #1Blocks per game4.0 #26
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Spurs

4-2 overall · 4-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27
  • Wvs Timberwolves121–111
  • W@ Jazz117–111
  • Wvs Kings130–103
  • W@ Mavericks122–106
  • Lvs Rockets110–114

A week or more of rest.

Pacers

2-5 overall · 1-4 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27
  • Lvs Nets90–98
  • L@ Heat125–145
  • Lvs 76ers109–114
  • L@ Bucks102–110
  • W@ Nets136–109

A week or more of rest.