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NBA · Thu, Mar 25

Rockets @ Pistons

Little Caesars Arena · at Pistons
#1HOURockets
@
#4DETPistons
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
HOUThis seasonDET
6-1Record5-1
6-1ATS5-1
5-2O/U2-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects DET 110–110 · win probability DET 51%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 219.3
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: HOU has more of the edges

HOU 4, DET 2 · 2026-27 so far
HOUBig
DET offense vs HOU defense
Offense 17th of 30 against a defense 4th, on the model’s ratings
HOUSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: HOU 32.4%, DET 27.2%. Defensive: HOU 73.2%, DET 72.8%
HOUSmall
Three-pointers
HOU hits 39.0% and allows 30.2%; DET hits 36.3% and allows 32.5%. Threes are 38.1% and 43.3% of their shots
HOUSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: HOU 31.9, DET 28.9. Allowed: HOU 24.7, DET 28.1
Context
Schedule so far
HOU has played the 12th-hardest schedule, DET the 17th. A record against a soft schedule means less
DETSmall
HOU offense vs DET defense
Offense 6th of 30 against a defense 1st, on the model’s ratings
DETSmall
Home court
DET at home. This season: DET 2-0 at home, HOU 3-1 away
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: HOU 15.1%, DET 15.6%. Forced: HOU 15.7%, DET 17.1%
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: HOU 56.6 and allows 52.1; DET 53.1 and allows 48.8
Context
Tempo
About 101 possessions: HOU plays 101.6 a game (24th fastest), DET 100.9 (29th). Faster games mean more points
Even
Recent form
Last 5: HOU 4-1 ATS, margin +13.0; DET 4-1 ATS, margin +8.0
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: HOU 100%, DET 100%. Transfers in: HOU 0, DET 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market vs model

The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edge
Spread
Market—
ModelDET -0.3
Model edge—
Total
Market—
Model219.3
Model edge—
Projected score
HOU 109.5 · DET 109.8
Win probability
DET 51%
1st half
Spread
DET -0.0
Total
110.1
Projected score
HOU 55.1 · DET 55.1
Model edge = where the model differs from the market, in points: a reason to look, not a trend. The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. Model record › · 1st-half slate ›

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Rockets has the better starters

Position by position: Rockets 2, Pistons 1, even 2
RocketsBetterPistons
G A. Thompson16.3 pts · 6.6 reb · 3.7 ast Score 60
Even
G C. Cunningham22.2 pts · 5.5 reb · 7.2 ast Score 47
G F. VanVleet13 pts · 4 reb · 6.4 ast Score 94
HOUSmall
G A. Thompson8.8 pts · 7.4 reb · 5 ast Score 79
F J. Smith19 pts · 5.9 reb · 2.7 ast Score 79
Even
F D. Robinson16.8 pts · 2 reb · 2.2 ast Score 77
F K. Durant22 pts · 5.6 reb · 3.3 ast Score 82
DETSmall
F P. Reed13.8 pts · 7 reb · 2 ast Score 97
C A. Sengun22.8 pts · 9 reb · 7.4 ast Score 84
HOUBig
F J. Collins9.2 pts · 7.2 reb · 0.5 ast Score 30
RocketsBetterPistons
HOU offense6th of 30 · +2.9
DETSmall
DET defense1st of 30 · +7.1
HOU defense4th of 30 · +5.2
HOUBig
DET offense17th of 30 · -0.6
Backcourt+19.1 · 2 players
HOUBig
Backcourt+10.1 · 2 players
Frontcourt+30.0 · 3 players
HOUBig
Frontcourt+19.7 · 3 players
Bench+16.2 · 5 players
DETBig
Bench+22.1 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestHOU betterDET betterNEW no NBA numbers yet
Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Rockets
Guards
A. Thompson34 minF. VanVleet31 minM. Smart25 minB. Bogdanovic15 minS. Pedulla4 minB. Thornton3 min
Forwards
J. Smith34 minK. Durant34 minT. Eason24 minJ. Tate9 minI. Crawford7 min
Centers
A. Sengun34 minO. Tshiebwe17 min
Out
S. AdamsOutC. CapelaDay-To-DayR. SheppardDay-To-Day
Pistons
Guards
C. Cunningham34 minA. Thompson26 minD. Jenkins25 minE. Harkless21 minK. Huerter21 minJ. Green19 min
Forwards
D. Robinson30 minP. Reed27 minJ. Collins27 minT. Prince24 minR. Holland16 minT. Smith8 min
Centers
I. Jones5 min
Out
I. JoeOutJ. DurenOut
In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
HOUDET
Scoring
120.7 #3Points per game109.8 #21
1.20 #1Points per possession1.09 #18
101.6 #24Pace (possessions)100.9 #29
Shooting
56.6 #3Effective FG%53.1 #17
39.0 #33-point %36.3 #9
38.1 #263-point attempt rate43.3 #13
31.9 #8Free throw rate28.9 #14
Possessions
15.1 #13Turnover rate15.6 #17
32.4 #3Offensive rebound rate27.2 #17
28.1 #5Assists per game26.7 #15
Defense
108.3 #7Points allowed101.8 #1
1.06 #8Points allowed per possession1.01 #1
52.1 #10Opponent effective FG%48.8 #2
30.2 #4Opponent 3-point %32.5 #10
15.7 #16Turnovers forced17.1 #6
73.2 #14Defensive rebound rate72.8 #15
9.7 #6Steals per game9.0 #12
5.9 #8Blocks per game6.7 #4
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Rockets

6-1 overall · 3-1 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27
  • Wvs Thunder119–98
  • L@ Mavericks111–116
  • W@ Bucks132–100
  • Wvs Hawks120–110
  • W@ Hawks121–114

A week or more of rest.

Pistons

5-1 overall · 5-1 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27
  • W@ Nets110–94
  • Wvs Hornets97–89
  • L@ Knicks97–111
  • W@ 76ers106–93
  • W@ Heat128–111

A week or more of rest.