Los Angeles Lakers at Cleveland Cavaliers: Model Line and Edge

Thu, Mar 25, 7:00 PM ETRocket Arena · at Cavaliers

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Lakers and Cavaliers
LAL	This season	CLE
5-2	Record	4-2
4-3	ATS	2-4
4-3	O/U	3-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects CLE 119–116 · win probability CLE 59%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 235.6

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: CLE has more of the edges

LAL 1, CLE 3 · 2026-27 so far

LALBig

LAL offense vs CLE defense

Offense 4th of 30 against a defense 20th, on the model’s ratings

CLEBig

CLE offense vs LAL defense

Offense 2nd of 30 against a defense 17th, on the model’s ratings

CLESmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: LAL 26.8%, CLE 26.7%. Defensive: LAL 67.4%, CLE 73.9%

Context

Schedule so far

LAL has played the 16th-hardest schedule, CLE the 24th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Context

Tempo

About 105 possessions: LAL plays 102.9 a game (17th fastest), CLE 106.2 (3rd). Faster games mean more points

CLESmall

Home court

CLE at home. This season: CLE 3-0 at home, LAL 2-1 away

Even

Three-pointers

LAL hits 38.9% and allows 36.7%; CLE hits 37.0% and allows 33.7%. Threes are 45.7% and 43.6% of their shots

Even

Recent form

Last 5: LAL 3-2 ATS, margin +1.4; CLE 2-3 ATS, margin +7.6

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: LAL 37.2, CLE 28.9. Allowed: LAL 30.7, CLE 23.2

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: LAL 60.1 and allows 53.7; CLE 55.3 and allows 52.5

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: LAL 18.3%, CLE 14.2%. Forced: LAL 17.8%, CLE 14.1%

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: LAL 100%, CLE 100%. Transfers in: LAL 0, CLE 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LAL WLWLW	4-3	57%	2-1	—
CLE LLWLW	2-4	33%	1-2	—

Venue/role: LAL away; CLE home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
LAL OOUUO	4-3	57%	5-2
CLE OOUUO	3-3	50%	4-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LALlast 7	5-2 71%	4-3 57%	4-3 57%
CLElast 6	4-2 67%	2-4 33%	3-3 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Lakers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 28	@ HOU	W98–78WU
Mar 30	@ MEM	W120–114WU
Apr 1	@ OKC	L110–115WO

Cavaliers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 29	vs MIA	W149–128WO
Mar 31	@ BKN	W125–121LO
Apr 1	vs BOS	L98–109LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

LAL 5–5 CLESeries tied · 10 games since 2021-22 · LAL 5-5 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 31, 2025-26	CLE 113 @ LAL 127	LAL -2.5	LAL W
Jan 28, 2025-26	LAL 99 @ CLE 129	CLE -3.5	CLE W
Dec 31, 2024-25	CLE 122 @ LAL 110	LAL +4.5	CLE W
Oct 30, 2024-25	LAL 110 @ CLE 134	CLE -4.5	CLE W
Apr 6, 2023-24	CLE 97 @ LAL 116	LAL -4.5	LAL W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Lakers

7 games played

Straight up

5-2

71% wins

Against the spread

4-3

57% covers · avg +1.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-3

57% overs · avg +4.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-271%

W W W L W L W

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

4-357%

W L W L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

4-357%

U O O O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsGS	W 127-105	-6.5	W +15.5	233.5	U 232
Oct 23	vsLAC	W 125-117	-8.5	L −0.5	225.5	O 242
Oct 25	@UTAH	W 132-123	-6.5	W +2.5	237.5	O 255
Oct 27	vsPOR	L 129-136	-1.5	L −8.5	234.5	O 265
Oct 28	@LAC	W 103-87	+1.5	W +17.5	224.5	U 190
Oct 30	@GS	L 95-112	-2.5	L −19.5	234.5	U 207
Nov 1	vsTOR	W 131-125	-3.5	W +2.5	224.5	O 256

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 127-105

+15.5

LAC

W 125-117

−0.5

UTAH

W 132-123

+2.5

POR

L 129-136

−8.5

LAC

W 103-87

+17.5

L 95-112

−19.5

TOR

W 131-125

+2.5

covered 4didn’t cover 3avg +1.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 127-105

−1.5

LAC

W 125-117

+16.5

UTAH

W 132-123

+17.5

POR

L 129-136

+30.5

LAC

W 103-87

−34.5

L 95-112

−27.5

TOR

W 131-125

+31.5

over 4under 3avg +4.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Cavaliers

6 games played

Straight up

4-2

67% wins

Against the spread

2-4

33% covers · avg +0.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg +1.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-267%

L W W W L W

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

2-433%

L L L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-350%

U O O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 22	@PHI	L 106-114	+2.5	L −5.5	237.5	U 220
Oct 24	vsBKN	W 125-121	-11.5	L −7.5	228.5	O 246
Oct 26	vsMIN	W 127-125	-3.5	L −1.5	234.5	O 252
Oct 28	vsWSH	W 121-111	-9.5	W +0.5	240.5	U 232
Oct 29	@ATL	L 111-114	+1.5	L −1.5	237.5	U 225
Oct 31	@MIL	W 136-111	-8.5	W +16.5	234.5	O 247

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

PHI

L 106-114

−5.5

BKN

W 125-121

−7.5

MIN

W 127-125

−1.5

WSH

W 121-111

+0.5

ATL

L 111-114

−1.5

MIL

W 136-111

+16.5

covered 2didn’t cover 4avg +0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

PHI

L 106-114

−17.5

BKN

W 125-121

+17.5

MIN

W 127-125

+17.5

WSH

W 121-111

−8.5

ATL

L 111-114

−12.5

MIL

W 136-111

+12.5

over 3under 3avg +1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: Lakers 2, Cavaliers 2, even 1

LakersBetterCavaliers

G A. Reaves23.1 pts · 3.4 reb · 5.1 ast Score 82

LALSmall

G J. Harden16.7 pts · 4.8 reb · 6.3 ast Score 53

G L. Doncic37.7 pts · 8.2 reb · 7.3 ast Score 79

Even

G D. Mitchell22.7 pts · 5.3 reb · 4.5 ast Score 86

G M. Thybulle9 pts · 1.9 reb · 1.1 ast Score 50

CLEBig

G S. Merrill8.5 pts · 3 reb · 2.3 ast Score 90

F J. LaRavia5.8 pts · 3.5 reb · 1.3 ast Score 70

LALBig

C E. Mobley19.7 pts · 8.2 reb · 3.5 ast Score 30

C W. Kessler14.3 pts · 9.9 reb · 1.1 ast Score 42

CLEBig

C J. Allen15.3 pts · 9.2 reb · 1.5 ast Score 100

LakersBetterCavaliers

LAL offense4th of 30 · +3.2

LALBig

CLE defense20th of 30 · -1.2

LAL defense17th of 30 · -0.2

CLEBig

CLE offense2nd of 30 · +4.0

Backcourt+24.2 · 3 players

CLESmall

Backcourt+25.3 · 3 players

Frontcourt+7.4 · 2 players

CLEBig

Frontcourt+17.9 · 2 players

Bench+6.7 · 5 players

LALSmall

Bench+4.1 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestLAL betterCLE betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Lakers

Guards

A. Reaves36 minL. Doncic36 minM. Thybulle25 minQ. Grimes27 minC. Sexton18 minJ. Hardy16 min

Forwards

J. LaRavia23 minS. Mamukelashvili24 minJ. Vanderbilt15 minK. Looney8 minA. KalumaNewA. OkerekeNew

Centers

W. Kessler31 min

Out

Z. WilliamsOut

Cavaliers

Guards

J. Harden34 minD. Mitchell33 minS. Merrill24 minM. Thomas21 minT. Proctor12 minC. Porter8 min

Forwards

M. Hezonja18 minT. Enaruna10 minR. Minix7 min

Centers

E. Mobley33 minJ. Allen28 minT. Bryant11 minE. UdehNew

Out

P. WatsonDay-To-DayJ. TysonOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

LAL120.3 #5

CLE121.0 #2

Points per possession

LAL1.18 #2

CLE1.14 #7

Pace (possessions)

LAL102.9 #17

CLE106.2 #3

Shooting

Effective FG%

LAL60.1 #1

CLE55.3 #7

3-point %

LAL38.9 #4

CLE37.0 #8

3-point attempt rate

LAL45.7 #9

CLE43.6 #12

Free throw rate

LAL37.2 #2

CLE28.9 #13

Possessions

Turnover rate

LAL18.3 #28

CLE14.2 #6

Offensive rebound rate

LAL26.8 #19

CLE26.7 #20

Assists per game

LAL23.4 #27

CLE28.7 #4

Defense

Points allowed

LAL115.0 #17

CLE116.0 #20

Points allowed per possession

LAL1.11 #19

CLE1.09 #14

Opponent effective FG%

LAL53.7 #17

CLE52.5 #12

Opponent 3-point %

LAL36.7 #22

CLE33.7 #11

Turnovers forced

LAL17.8 #4

CLE14.1 #25

Defensive rebound rate

LAL67.4 #29

CLE73.9 #11

Steals per game

LAL10.4 #4

CLE7.8 #22

Blocks per game

LAL6.7 #3

CLE6.3 #6

LAL		CLE
Scoring
120.3 #5	Points per game	121.0 #2
1.18 #2	Points per possession	1.14 #7
102.9 #17	Pace (possessions)	106.2 #3
Shooting
60.1 #1	Effective FG%	55.3 #7
38.9 #4	3-point %	37.0 #8
45.7 #9	3-point attempt rate	43.6 #12
37.2 #2	Free throw rate	28.9 #13
Possessions
18.3 #28	Turnover rate	14.2 #6
26.8 #19	Offensive rebound rate	26.7 #20
23.4 #27	Assists per game	28.7 #4
Defense
115.0 #17	Points allowed	116.0 #20
1.11 #19	Points allowed per possession	1.09 #14
53.7 #17	Opponent effective FG%	52.5 #12
36.7 #22	Opponent 3-point %	33.7 #11
17.8 #4	Turnovers forced	14.1 #25
67.4 #29	Defensive rebound rate	73.9 #11
10.4 #4	Steals per game	7.8 #22
6.7 #3	Blocks per game	6.3 #6

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Lakers

5-2 overall · 4-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Raptors131–125
L@ Warriors95–112
W@ Clippers103–87
Lvs Trail Blazers129–136
W@ Jazz132–123

A week or more of rest.

Cavaliers

4-2 overall · 3-2 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Bucks136–111
L@ Hawks111–114
Wvs Wizards121–111
Wvs Timberwolves127–125
Wvs Nets125–121

A week or more of rest.

Lakers @ Cavaliers

What could decide it: CLE has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Lakers

Cavaliers

The starting fives are even

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Lakers

Cavaliers