Philadelphia 76ers at Denver Nuggets: Model Line and Edge

Sun, Mar 28, 10:00 PM ETBall Arena · at Nuggets

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: 76ers and Nuggets
PHI	This season	DEN
6-1	Record	3-2
4-3	ATS	2-3
2-5	O/U	3-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects DEN 115–112 · win probability DEN 60%

Pick this game

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 227.0

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: DEN has more of the edges

PHI 1, DEN 3 · 2026-27 so far

PHIBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: PHI 12.3%, DEN 16.4%. Forced: PHI 17.0%, DEN 15.9%

DENBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: PHI 28.7, DEN 31.3. Allowed: PHI 28.5, DEN 21.5

DENSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: PHI 19.9%, DEN 27.5%. Defensive: PHI 70.8%, DEN 70.5%

DENSmall

Home court

DEN at home. This season: DEN 1-1 at home, PHI 3-0 away

Even

Three-pointers

PHI hits 34.0% and allows 32.1%; DEN hits 37.4% and allows 35.0%. Threes are 39.5% and 40.9% of their shots

Even

PHI offense vs DEN defense

Offense 22nd of 30 against a defense 19th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

PHI has played the 20th-hardest schedule, DEN the 18th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

DEN offense vs PHI defense

Offense 8th of 30 against a defense 10th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Tempo

About 102 possessions: PHI plays 102.4 a game (19th fastest), DEN 102.1 (21st). Faster games mean more points

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: PHI 50.8 and allows 49.8; DEN 54.7 and allows 54.2

Even

Recent form

Last 5: PHI 2-3 ATS, margin +2.6; DEN 2-3 ATS, margin -1.2

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: PHI 100%, DEN 100%. Transfers in: PHI 0, DEN 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
PHI LLLWW	4-3	57%	2-1	—
DEN LLLWW	2-3	40%	0-2	—

Venue/role: PHI away; DEN home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
PHI OUUUO	2-5	29%	6-1
DEN UOOUO	3-2	60%	3-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
PHIlast 7	6-1 86%	4-3 57%	2-5 29%
DENlast 5	3-2 60%	2-3 40%	3-2 60%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

76ers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 31	vs GS	W113–94WU
Apr 2	@ WSH	W153–131WO
Apr 4	vs ATL	L116–125LO

Nuggets

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 29	@ SAC	W136–105WO
Mar 31	@ DAL	W142–135LO
Apr 2	@ PHX	W127–120WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

PHI 3–7 DENDEN leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · DEN has won the last 5 meetings · PHI 6-4 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 17, 2025-26	PHI 96 @ DEN 124	DEN -15.5	DEN W
Jan 5, 2025-26	DEN 125 @ PHI 124	PHI -14.5	DEN W
Jan 31, 2024-25	DEN 137 @ PHI 134	PHI +9.5	PHI W
Jan 21, 2024-25	PHI 109 @ DEN 144	DEN -11.5	DEN W
Jan 27, 2023-24	PHI 105 @ DEN 111	DEN -12.5	PHI W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

76ers

7 games played

Straight up

6-1

86% wins

Against the spread

4-3

57% covers · avg +0.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-5

29% overs · avg −15.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

6-186%

W W W L W W W

3 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

4-357%

W W L L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-529%

U U O U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 20	@NY	W 106-100	+4.5	W +10.5	231.5	U 206
Oct 22	vsCLE	W 114-106	-2.5	W +5.5	237.5	U 220
Oct 24	vsMIL	W 127-116	-12.5	L −1.5	234.5	O 243
Oct 25	vsDET	L 93-106	+1.5	L −11.5	228.5	U 199
Oct 28	@IND	W 114-109	-7.5	L −2.5	234.5	U 223
Oct 30	vsNY	W 98-93	-2.5	W +2.5	224.5	U 191
Oct 31	@CHA	W 109-104	-1.5	W +3.5	211.5	O 213

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 106-100

+10.5

CLE

W 114-106

+5.5

MIL

W 127-116

−1.5

DET

L 93-106

−11.5

IND

W 114-109

−2.5

W 98-93

+2.5

CHA

W 109-104

+3.5

covered 4didn’t cover 3avg +0.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 106-100

−25.5

CLE

W 114-106

−17.5

MIL

W 127-116

+8.5

DET

L 93-106

−29.5

IND

W 114-109

−11.5

W 98-93

−33.5

CHA

W 109-104

+1.5

over 2under 5avg −15.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Nuggets

5 games played

Straight up

3-2

60% wins

Against the spread

2-3

40% covers · avg −5.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-2

60% overs · avg −7.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-260%

L W L W W

2 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-340%

L L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-260%

U O O U O

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 22	@OKC	L 84-96	+7.5	L −4.5	236.5	U 180
Oct 24	vsNO	W 141-135	-11.5	L −5.5	239.5	O 276
Oct 26	vsGS	L 114-134	-6.5	L −26.5	236.5	O 248
Oct 28	@NO	W 104-91	-4.5	W +8.5	241.5	U 195
Oct 30	@PHX	W 127-120	-4.5	W +2.5	231.5	O 247

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

OKC

L 84-96

−4.5

W 141-135

−5.5

L 114-134

−26.5

W 104-91

+8.5

PHX

W 127-120

+2.5

covered 2didn’t cover 3avg −5.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

OKC

L 84-96

−56.5

W 141-135

+36.5

L 114-134

+11.5

W 104-91

−46.5

PHX

W 127-120

+15.5

over 3under 2avg −7.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: 76ers 2, Nuggets 2, even 1

76ersBetterNuggets

G T. Maxey29.6 pts · 4.1 reb · 4.4 ast Score 67

PHISmall

G J. Murray25.8 pts · 5.6 reb · 5.6 ast Score 40

G J. Brown19.8 pts · 6.2 reb · 4.2 ast Score 35

DENSmall

G C. Braun15.4 pts · 4.2 reb · 2 ast Score 66

G V. Edgecombe11.3 pts · 7.8 reb · 2.7 ast Score 96

PHISmall

F A. Gordon12.8 pts · 6 reb · 3 ast Score 74

F L. James16.4 pts · 7 reb · 7 ast Score 54

DENBig

F C. Johnson8.5 pts · 5.5 reb · 2 ast Score 98

F D. Wade3.6 pts · 3 reb · 2.6 ast Score 90

Even

C N. Jokic21.2 pts · 9.8 reb · 9.2 ast Score 86

76ersBetterNuggets

PHI offense22nd of 30 · -1.7

Even

DEN defense19th of 30 · -0.9

PHI defense10th of 30 · +3.0

Even

DEN offense8th of 30 · +2.5

Backcourt+25.4 · 3 players

PHIBig

Backcourt+7.7 · 2 players

Frontcourt+14.0 · 2 players

DENBig

Frontcourt+35.7 · 3 players

Bench-19.8 · 5 players

DENBig

Bench-4.0 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestPHI betterDEN betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

76ers

Guards

T. Maxey38 minJ. Brown37 minV. Edgecombe33 minA. Simons25 minK. Caldwell-Pope24 minC. Love21 min

Forwards

L. James33 minD. Wade28 minJ. Edwards15 minJ. Walker10 min

Centers

A. Bona14 minT. FallNew

Out

J. EmbiidDay-To-Day

Nuggets

Guards

J. Murray38 minC. Braun36 minD. DeRozan26 minR. Nembhard20 minT. Jones10 min

Forwards

A. Gordon30 minC. Johnson23 minT. Brazile23 minC. Whitmore17 minB. Hopkins17 minM. Bagley12 min

Centers

N. Jokic37 min

Out

A. DialloOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

PHI108.7 #23

DEN114.0 #15

Points per possession

PHI1.06 #22

DEN1.13 #9

Pace (possessions)

PHI102.4 #19

DEN102.1 #21

Shooting

Effective FG%

PHI50.8 #25

DEN54.7 #11

3-point %

PHI34.0 #20

DEN37.4 #7

3-point attempt rate

PHI39.5 #23

DEN40.9 #22

Free throw rate

PHI28.7 #16

DEN31.3 #11

Possessions

Turnover rate

PHI12.3 #1

DEN16.4 #21

Offensive rebound rate

PHI19.9 #30

DEN27.5 #15

Assists per game

PHI25.1 #22

DEN26.8 #14

Defense

Points allowed

PHI104.9 #2

DEN115.2 #18

Points allowed per possession

PHI1.03 #3

DEN1.12 #20

Opponent effective FG%

PHI49.8 #4

DEN54.2 #20

Opponent 3-point %

PHI32.1 #9

DEN35.0 #15

Turnovers forced

PHI17.0 #9

DEN15.9 #11

Defensive rebound rate

PHI70.8 #21

DEN70.5 #22

Steals per game

PHI9.6 #7

DEN10.2 #5

Blocks per game

PHI5.0 #14

DEN4.4 #18

PHI		DEN
Scoring
108.7 #23	Points per game	114.0 #15
1.06 #22	Points per possession	1.13 #9
102.4 #19	Pace (possessions)	102.1 #21
Shooting
50.8 #25	Effective FG%	54.7 #11
34.0 #20	3-point %	37.4 #7
39.5 #23	3-point attempt rate	40.9 #22
28.7 #16	Free throw rate	31.3 #11
Possessions
12.3 #1	Turnover rate	16.4 #21
19.9 #30	Offensive rebound rate	27.5 #15
25.1 #22	Assists per game	26.8 #14
Defense
104.9 #2	Points allowed	115.2 #18
1.03 #3	Points allowed per possession	1.12 #20
49.8 #4	Opponent effective FG%	54.2 #20
32.1 #9	Opponent 3-point %	35.0 #15
17.0 #9	Turnovers forced	15.9 #11
70.8 #21	Defensive rebound rate	70.5 #22
9.6 #7	Steals per game	10.2 #5
5.0 #14	Blocks per game	4.4 #18

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

76ers

6-1 overall · 6-1 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Hornets109–104
Wvs Knicks98–93
W@ Pacers114–109
Lvs Pistons93–106
Wvs Bucks127–116

A week or more of rest.

Nuggets

3-2 overall · 3-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Suns127–120
W@ Pelicans104–91
Lvs Warriors114–134
Wvs Pelicans141–135
L@ Thunder84–96

A week or more of rest.

76ers @ Nuggets

What could decide it: DEN has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

76ers

Nuggets

The starting fives are even

Depth chart

Matchup stats

76ers

Nuggets