Toronto Raptors at Phoenix Suns: Model Line and Edge

Sun, Mar 28, 9:00 PM ETMortgage Matchup Center · at Suns

#21PHXSuns

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Raptors and Suns
TOR	This season	PHX
3-3	Record	1-3
3-3	ATS	0-4
3-3	O/U	3-1

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects TOR 115–111 · win probability TOR 61%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 226.7

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: TOR has more of the edges

TOR 5, PHX 1 · 2026-27 so far

Context

Schedule so far

TOR has played the 21st-hardest schedule, PHX the 3rd. A record against a soft schedule means less

TORBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: TOR 32.6%, PHX 28.3%. Defensive: TOR 73.4%, PHX 65.1%

TORBig

PHX offense vs TOR defense

Offense 19th of 30 against a defense 9th, on the model’s ratings

TORBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: TOR 13.5%, PHX 15.2%. Forced: TOR 20.8%, PHX 17.1%

Context

Tempo

About 103 possessions: TOR plays 105.5 a game (8th fastest), PHX 101.3 (26th). Faster games mean more points

TORSmall

TOR offense vs PHX defense

Offense 14th of 30 against a defense 21st, on the model’s ratings

TORSmall

Recent form

Last 4: TOR 2-3 ATS, margin +0.8; PHX 0-4 ATS, margin -12.5

PHXSmall

Home court

PHX at home. This season: PHX 1-1 at home, TOR 1-2 away

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: TOR 51.0 and allows 53.4; PHX 54.4 and allows 58.7

Even

Three-pointers

TOR hits 32.0% and allows 36.7%; PHX hits 35.0% and allows 43.9%. Threes are 38.1% and 45.1% of their shots

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: TOR 27.7, PHX 22.8. Allowed: TOR 41.5, PHX 31.1

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: TOR 100%, PHX 100%. Transfers in: TOR 0, PHX 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TOR WLWLL	3-3	50%	1-2	—
PHX LLLL	0-4	0%	0-2	—

Venue/role: TOR away; PHX home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
TOR UUOOO	3-3	50%	3-3
PHX UOOO	3-1	75%	1-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TORlast 6	3-3 50%	3-3 50%	3-3 50%
PHXlast 4	1-3 25%	0-4 0%	3-1 75%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Raptors

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 31	@ DET	L116–127LO
Apr 2	vs ATL	W118–100WU
Apr 4	vs IND	W122–104WU

Suns

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 29	@ SA	L100–101WU
Mar 31	@ SA	L100–101WU
Apr 2	vs DEN	L120–127LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

TOR 5–5 PHXSeries tied · 10 games since 2021-22 · TOR 7-3 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 22, 2025-26	TOR 98 @ PHX 120	PHX +4.5	PHX W
Mar 13, 2025-26	PHX 115 @ TOR 122	TOR -5.5	TOR W
Mar 17, 2024-25	TOR 89 @ PHX 129	PHX -9.5	PHX W
Feb 23, 2024-25	PHX 109 @ TOR 127	TOR +2.5	TOR W
Mar 7, 2023-24	TOR 113 @ PHX 120	PHX -10.5	TOR W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Raptors

6 games played

Straight up

3-3

50% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg +3.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg −1.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-350%

W W L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

W W L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-350%

U U U O O O

3 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsCHI	W 135-92	-10.5	W +32.5	237.5	U 227
Oct 23	@WSH	W 112-102	-9.5	W +0.5	236.5	U 214
Oct 25	@MIN	L 94-117	+3.5	L −19.5	228.5	U 211
Oct 28	vsORL	W 129-99	-5.5	W +24.5	224.5	O 228
Oct 30	vsORL	L 114-121	-5.5	L −12.5	226.5	O 235
Nov 1	@LAL	L 125-131	+3.5	L −2.5	224.5	O 256

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CHI

W 135-92

+32.5

WSH

W 112-102

+0.5

MIN

L 94-117

−19.5

ORL

W 129-99

+24.5

ORL

L 114-121

−12.5

LAL

L 125-131

−2.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg +3.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CHI

W 135-92

−10.5

WSH

W 112-102

−22.5

MIN

L 94-117

−17.5

ORL

W 129-99

+3.5

ORL

L 114-121

+8.5

LAL

L 125-131

+31.5

over 3under 3avg −1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Suns

4 games played

Straight up

1-3

25% wins

Against the spread

0-4

0% covers · avg −10.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-1

75% overs · avg +9.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-325%

L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

0-40%

L L L L

4 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-175%

U O O O

3 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@POR	L 83-124	+3.5	L −37.5	232.5	U 207
Oct 24	vsGS	W 131-122	-9.5	L −0.5	221.5	O 253
Oct 26	@OKC	L 114-125	+8.5	L −2.5	221.5	O 239
Oct 30	vsDEN	L 120-127	+4.5	L −2.5	231.5	O 247

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

POR

L 83-124

−37.5

W 131-122

−0.5

OKC

L 114-125

−2.5

DEN

L 120-127

−2.5

covered 0didn’t cover 4avg −10.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

POR

L 83-124

−25.5

W 131-122

+31.5

OKC

L 114-125

+17.5

DEN

L 120-127

+15.5

over 3under 1avg +9.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Raptors has the better starters

Position by position: Raptors 4, Suns 1, even 0

RaptorsBetterSuns

G I. Quickley16.5 pts · 3.8 reb · 6.2 ast Score 33

PHXBig

G D. Booker22.3 pts · 3.8 reb · 5.3 ast Score 92

G J. Walter12.2 pts · 3.8 reb · 2.2 ast Score 64

TORBig

G J. Green11 pts · 2.5 reb · 2.5 ast Score 11

F S. Barnes24.8 pts · 6.7 reb · 4.5 ast Score 68

TORBig

F M. Bridges16.3 pts · 7.3 reb · 2.3 ast Score 14

F R. Barrett19.8 pts · 6.2 reb · 4.2 ast Score 88

TORSmall

F D. Brooks16.5 pts · 3 reb · 3 ast Score 59

F T. Jackson-Davis3.8 pts · 3 reb · 0.5 ast Score 52

TORBig

C K. Maluach8 pts · 7 reb · 1.3 ast Score 16

RaptorsBetterSuns

TOR offense14th of 30 · +0.9

TORSmall

PHX defense21st of 30 · -1.3

TOR defense9th of 30 · +3.1

TORSmall

PHX offense19th of 30 · -1.2

Backcourt+4.4 · 2 players

PHXBig

Backcourt+10.4 · 2 players

Frontcourt+19.0 · 3 players

TORBig

Frontcourt-4.6 · 3 players

Bench+2.4 · 5 players

TORSmall

Bench+1.4 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestTOR betterPHX betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Raptors

Guards

I. Quickley31 minJ. Walter29 minJ. Shead22 minA. Martin7 minJ. Bradley4 min

Forwards

S. Barnes33 minR. Barrett32 minT. Jackson-Davis8 minC. Murray-Boyles19 minK. Anderson18 minJ. Battle15 min

Out

J. PoeltlDay-To-DayK. LeonardOut

Suns

Guards

D. Booker35 minJ. Green27 minC. Gillespie26 minJ. Goodwin21 minP. Spencer18 minL. Kennard15 min

Forwards

M. Bridges33 minD. Brooks29 minO. Ighodaro18 minR. Dunn13 minR. Fleming12 minC. Huntley10 min

Centers

K. Maluach22 minD. Reath8 min

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27, 4 games in · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

TOR118.2 #10

PHX112.0 #19

Points per possession

TOR1.11 #13

PHX1.12 #12

Pace (possessions)

TOR105.5 #8

PHX101.3 #26

Shooting

Effective FG%

TOR51.0 #22

PHX54.4 #13

3-point %

TOR32.0 #24

PHX35.0 #16

3-point attempt rate

TOR38.1 #25

PHX45.1 #10

Free throw rate

TOR27.7 #18

PHX22.8 #27

Possessions

Turnover rate

TOR13.5 #3

PHX15.2 #15

Offensive rebound rate

TOR32.6 #2

PHX28.3 #11

Assists per game

TOR29.2 #2

PHX27.5 #8

Defense

Points allowed

TOR110.3 #13

PHX124.5 #27

Points allowed per possession

TOR1.05 #5

PHX1.21 #30

Opponent effective FG%

TOR53.4 #16

PHX58.7 #29

Opponent 3-point %

TOR36.7 #21

PHX43.9 #30

Turnovers forced

TOR20.8 #1

PHX17.1 #7

Defensive rebound rate

TOR73.4 #13

PHX65.1 #30

Steals per game

TOR12.7 #2

PHX9.0 #15

Blocks per game

TOR4.3 #19

PHX5.3 #10

TOR		PHX
Scoring
118.2 #10	Points per game	112.0 #19
1.11 #13	Points per possession	1.12 #12
105.5 #8	Pace (possessions)	101.3 #26
Shooting
51.0 #22	Effective FG%	54.4 #13
32.0 #24	3-point %	35.0 #16
38.1 #25	3-point attempt rate	45.1 #10
27.7 #18	Free throw rate	22.8 #27
Possessions
13.5 #3	Turnover rate	15.2 #15
32.6 #2	Offensive rebound rate	28.3 #11
29.2 #2	Assists per game	27.5 #8
Defense
110.3 #13	Points allowed	124.5 #27
1.05 #5	Points allowed per possession	1.21 #30
53.4 #16	Opponent effective FG%	58.7 #29
36.7 #21	Opponent 3-point %	43.9 #30
20.8 #1	Turnovers forced	17.1 #7
73.4 #13	Defensive rebound rate	65.1 #30
12.7 #2	Steals per game	9.0 #15
4.3 #19	Blocks per game	5.3 #10

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Raptors

3-3 overall · 3-1 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Lakers125–131
Lvs Magic114–121
Wvs Magic129–99
L@ Timberwolves94–117
W@ Wizards112–102

A week or more of rest.

Suns

1-3 overall · 1-3 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs Nuggets120–127
L@ Thunder114–125
Wvs Warriors131–122
L@ Trail Blazers83–124

A week or more of rest.

Raptors @ Suns

What could decide it: TOR has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Raptors

Suns

Raptors has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Raptors

Suns