Toronto Raptors at Golden State Warriors: Model Line and Edge

Thu, Mar 25, 10:00 PM ETChase Center · at Warriors

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Raptors and Warriors
TOR	This season	GS
3-3	Record	4-3
3-3	ATS	5-2
3-3	O/U	4-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects TOR 115–115 · win probability TOR 51%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 229.3

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: GS has more of the edges

TOR 2, GS 4 · 2026-27 so far

Context

Schedule so far

TOR has played the 21st-hardest schedule, GS the 6th. A record against a soft schedule means less

GSBig

Three-pointers

TOR hits 32.0% and allows 36.7%; GS hits 40.0% and allows 35.2%. Threes are 38.1% and 47.1% of their shots

TORBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: TOR 13.5%, GS 16.7%. Forced: TOR 20.8%, GS 17.6%

GSBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: TOR 27.7, GS 28.8. Allowed: TOR 41.5, GS 27.3

GSBig

Recent form

Last 5: TOR 2-3 ATS, margin +0.8; GS 5-0 ATS, margin +9.0

Context

Tempo

About 103 possessions: TOR plays 105.5 a game (8th fastest), GS 101.4 (25th). Faster games mean more points

TORSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: TOR 32.6%, GS 33.2%. Defensive: TOR 73.4%, GS 70.4%

GSSmall

Home court

GS at home. This season: GS 2-1 at home, TOR 1-2 away

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: TOR 51.0 and allows 53.4; GS 55.3 and allows 56.0

Even

TOR offense vs GS defense

Offense 14th of 30 against a defense 14th, on the model’s ratings

Even

GS offense vs TOR defense

Offense 9th of 30 against a defense 9th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: TOR 100%, GS 100%. Transfers in: TOR 0, GS 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TOR WLWLL	3-3	50%	1-2	—
GS WWWWW	5-2	71%	2-1	—

Venue/role: TOR away; GS home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
TOR UUOOO	3-3	50%	3-3
GS OOOUO	4-3	57%	4-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TORlast 6	3-3 50%	3-3 50%	3-3 50%
GSlast 7	4-3 57%	5-2 71%	4-3 57%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Raptors

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 27	@ SAC	L115–123LO
Mar 28	@ PHX	L98–120LU
Mar 31	@ DET	L116–127LO

Warriors

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 27	@ WSH	W131–126LO
Mar 29	@ BKN	W109–106LU
Mar 31	@ PHI	L94–113LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

TOR 5–5 GSSeries tied · 10 games since 2021-22 · TOR has won the last 2 meetings · TOR 6-4 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Jan 20, 2025-26	TOR 145 @ GS 127	GS -4.5	TOR W
Dec 28, 2025-26	GS 127 @ TOR 141	TOR +4.5	TOR W
Mar 20, 2024-25	TOR 114 @ GS 117	GS -14.5	TOR W
Jan 13, 2024-25	GS 101 @ TOR 104	TOR +4.5	TOR W
Mar 1, 2023-24	GS 120 @ TOR 105	TOR +3.5	GS W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Raptors

6 games played

Straight up

3-3

50% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg +3.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg −1.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-350%

W W L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

W W L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-350%

U U U O O O

3 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsCHI	W 135-92	-10.5	W +32.5	237.5	U 227
Oct 23	@WSH	W 112-102	-9.5	W +0.5	236.5	U 214
Oct 25	@MIN	L 94-117	+3.5	L −19.5	228.5	U 211
Oct 28	vsORL	W 129-99	-5.5	W +24.5	224.5	O 228
Oct 30	vsORL	L 114-121	-5.5	L −12.5	226.5	O 235
Nov 1	@LAL	L 125-131	+3.5	L −2.5	224.5	O 256

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CHI

W 135-92

+32.5

WSH

W 112-102

+0.5

MIN

L 94-117

−19.5

ORL

W 129-99

+24.5

ORL

L 114-121

−12.5

LAL

L 125-131

−2.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg +3.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CHI

W 135-92

−10.5

WSH

W 112-102

−22.5

MIN

L 94-117

−17.5

ORL

W 129-99

+3.5

ORL

L 114-121

+8.5

LAL

L 125-131

+31.5

over 3under 3avg −1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Warriors

7 games played

Straight up

4-3

57% wins

Against the spread

5-2

71% covers · avg +6.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-3

57% overs · avg +2.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-357%

L L L W W W W

4 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

5-271%

L L W W W W W

5 straight covers4 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

4-357%

U U O O O U O

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@LAL	L 105-127	+6.5	L −15.5	233.5	U 232
Oct 23	vsMEM	L 108-111	-4.5	L −7.5	236.5	U 219
Oct 24	@PHX	L 122-131	+9.5	W +0.5	221.5	O 253
Oct 26	@DEN	W 134-114	+6.5	W +26.5	236.5	O 248
Oct 28	@MIN	W 119-114	+3.5	W +8.5	227.5	O 233
Oct 30	vsLAL	W 112-95	+2.5	W +19.5	234.5	U 207
Nov 1	vsLAC	W 124-112	-1.5	W +10.5	220.5	O 236

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

LAL

L 105-127

−15.5

MEM

L 108-111

−7.5

PHX

L 122-131

+0.5

DEN

W 134-114

+26.5

MIN

W 119-114

+8.5

LAL

W 112-95

+19.5

LAC

W 124-112

+10.5

covered 5didn’t cover 2avg +6.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

LAL

L 105-127

−1.5

MEM

L 108-111

−17.5

PHX

L 122-131

+31.5

DEN

W 134-114

+11.5

MIN

W 119-114

+5.5

LAL

W 112-95

−27.5

LAC

W 124-112

+15.5

over 4under 3avg +2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Warriors has the better starters

Position by position: Raptors 1, Warriors 2, even 2

RaptorsBetterWarriors

G I. Quickley16.5 pts · 3.8 reb · 6.2 ast Score 33

GSBig

G B. Podziemski16.4 pts · 5.4 reb · 5.6 ast Score 72

G J. Walter12.2 pts · 3.8 reb · 2.2 ast Score 64

Even

G D. Melton11.9 pts · 4.1 reb · 2.3 ast Score 62

F S. Barnes24.8 pts · 6.7 reb · 4.5 ast Score 68

TORBig

G B. Williams11.6 pts · 2.9 reb · 2.4 ast Score 5

F R. Barrett19.8 pts · 6.2 reb · 4.2 ast Score 88

Even

F Y. Lendeborg22.3 pts · 7.3 reb · 3.7 ast Score 78

F T. Jackson-Davis3.8 pts · 3 reb · 0.5 ast Score 52

GSSmall

F G. Niang6.4 pts · 2.9 reb · 1.3 ast Score 72

RaptorsBetterWarriors

TOR offense14th of 30 · +0.9

Even

GS defense14th of 30 · +0.3

TOR defense9th of 30 · +3.1

Even

GS offense9th of 30 · +1.9

Backcourt+4.4 · 2 players

Even

Backcourt+5.3 · 3 players

Frontcourt+19.0 · 3 players

TORBig

Frontcourt+12.0 · 2 players

Bench+2.4 · 5 players

GSBig

Bench+5.4 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestTOR betterGS betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Raptors

Guards

I. Quickley31 minJ. Walter29 minJ. Shead22 minA. Martin7 minJ. Bradley4 min

Forwards

S. Barnes33 minR. Barrett32 minT. Jackson-Davis8 minC. Murray-Boyles19 minK. Anderson18 minJ. Battle15 min

Out

J. PoeltlDay-To-DayK. LeonardOut

Warriors

Guards

B. Podziemski34 minD. Melton22 minB. Williams17 minW. Richard16 minL. Cryer16 minG. Payton13 min

Forwards

Y. Lendeborg32 minG. Niang20 minG. Ike12 minM. Leons11 min

Centers

A. Horford19 minC. Bassey9 min

Out

S. CurryDay-To-DayG. SantosOutD. GreenDay-To-Day

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

TOR118.2 #10

GS117.7 #11

Points per possession

TOR1.11 #13

GS1.17 #3

Pace (possessions)

TOR105.5 #8

GS101.4 #25

Shooting

Effective FG%

TOR51.0 #22

GS55.3 #8

3-point %

TOR32.0 #24

GS40.0 #2

3-point attempt rate

TOR38.1 #25

GS47.1 #5

Free throw rate

TOR27.7 #18

GS28.8 #15

Possessions

Turnover rate

TOR13.5 #3

GS16.7 #22

Offensive rebound rate

TOR32.6 #2

GS33.2 #1

Assists per game

TOR29.2 #2

GS27.4 #10

Defense

Points allowed

TOR110.3 #13

GS114.9 #16

Points allowed per possession

TOR1.05 #5

GS1.13 #21

Opponent effective FG%

TOR53.4 #16

GS56.0 #25

Opponent 3-point %

TOR36.7 #21

GS35.2 #16

Turnovers forced

TOR20.8 #1

GS17.6 #5

Defensive rebound rate

TOR73.4 #13

GS70.4 #23

Steals per game

TOR12.7 #2

GS9.1 #11

Blocks per game

TOR4.3 #19

GS4.1 #24

TOR		GS
Scoring
118.2 #10	Points per game	117.7 #11
1.11 #13	Points per possession	1.17 #3
105.5 #8	Pace (possessions)	101.4 #25
Shooting
51.0 #22	Effective FG%	55.3 #8
32.0 #24	3-point %	40.0 #2
38.1 #25	3-point attempt rate	47.1 #5
27.7 #18	Free throw rate	28.8 #15
Possessions
13.5 #3	Turnover rate	16.7 #22
32.6 #2	Offensive rebound rate	33.2 #1
29.2 #2	Assists per game	27.4 #10
Defense
110.3 #13	Points allowed	114.9 #16
1.05 #5	Points allowed per possession	1.13 #21
53.4 #16	Opponent effective FG%	56.0 #25
36.7 #21	Opponent 3-point %	35.2 #16
20.8 #1	Turnovers forced	17.6 #5
73.4 #13	Defensive rebound rate	70.4 #23
12.7 #2	Steals per game	9.1 #11
4.3 #19	Blocks per game	4.1 #24

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Raptors

3-3 overall · 3-1 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Lakers125–131
Lvs Magic114–121
Wvs Magic129–99
L@ Timberwolves94–117
W@ Wizards112–102

A week or more of rest.

Warriors

4-3 overall · 4-3 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Clippers124–112
Wvs Lakers112–95
W@ Timberwolves119–114
W@ Nuggets134–114
L@ Suns122–131

A week or more of rest.

Raptors @ Warriors

What could decide it: GS has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Raptors

Warriors

Warriors has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Raptors

Warriors