Toronto Raptors at Sacramento Kings: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Mar 27, 10:00 PM ETGolden 1 Center · at Kings

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Raptors and Kings
TOR	This season	SAC
3-3	Record	0-6
3-3	ATS	1-5
3-3	O/U	5-1

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects TOR 122–110 · win probability TOR 81%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 231.3

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: TOR has more of the edges

TOR 6, SAC 1 · 2026-27 so far

TORBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: TOR 13.5%, SAC 15.9%. Forced: TOR 20.8%, SAC 14.6%

TORBig

SAC offense vs TOR defense

Offense 27th of 30 against a defense 9th, on the model’s ratings

TORBig

TOR offense vs SAC defense

Offense 14th of 30 against a defense 29th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

TOR has played the 21st-hardest schedule, SAC the 8th. A record against a soft schedule means less

TORBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: TOR 32.6%, SAC 22.9%. Defensive: TOR 73.4%, SAC 73.7%

TORSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: TOR 51.0 and allows 53.4; SAC 51.0 and allows 60.4

TORSmall

Three-pointers

TOR hits 32.0% and allows 36.7%; SAC hits 30.4% and allows 39.2%. Threes are 38.1% and 38.0% of their shots

SACSmall

Home court

SAC at home. This season: SAC 0-2 at home, TOR 1-2 away

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: TOR 27.7, SAC 26.4. Allowed: TOR 41.5, SAC 31.2

Even

Recent form

Last 5: TOR 2-3 ATS, margin +0.8; SAC 1-4 ATS, margin -17.8

Context

Tempo

About 106 possessions: TOR plays 105.5 a game (8th fastest), SAC 106.0 (6th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: TOR 100%, SAC 100%. Transfers in: TOR 0, SAC 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TOR WLWLL	3-3	50%	1-2	—
SAC WLLLL	1-5	17%	1-1	—

Venue/role: TOR away; SAC home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
TOR UUOOO	3-3	50%	3-3
SAC OOOOO	5-1	83%	0-6

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TORlast 6	3-3 50%	3-3 50%	3-3 50%
SAClast 6	0-6 0%	1-5 17%	5-1 83%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Raptors

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 28	@ PHX	L98–120LU
Mar 31	@ DET	L116–127LO
Apr 2	vs ATL	W118–100WU

Kings

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 29	vs DEN	L105–136LO
Mar 31	@ MIN	L103–117LU
Apr 2	@ DAL	W130–121WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

TOR 5–5 SACSeries tied · 10 games since 2021-22 · TOR 5-5 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Apr 1, 2025-26	SAC 123 @ TOR 115	TOR -12.5	SAC W
Jan 21, 2025-26	TOR 122 @ SAC 109	SAC +5.5	TOR W
Nov 6, 2024-25	TOR 107 @ SAC 122	SAC -11.5	SAC W
Nov 2, 2024-25	SAC 128 @ TOR 131	TOR +9.5	TOR W
Mar 20, 2023-24	SAC 123 @ TOR 89	TOR +11.5	SAC W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Raptors

6 games played

Straight up

3-3

50% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg +3.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg −1.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-350%

W W L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

W W L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-350%

U U U O O O

3 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsCHI	W 135-92	-10.5	W +32.5	237.5	U 227
Oct 23	@WSH	W 112-102	-9.5	W +0.5	236.5	U 214
Oct 25	@MIN	L 94-117	+3.5	L −19.5	228.5	U 211
Oct 28	vsORL	W 129-99	-5.5	W +24.5	224.5	O 228
Oct 30	vsORL	L 114-121	-5.5	L −12.5	226.5	O 235
Nov 1	@LAL	L 125-131	+3.5	L −2.5	224.5	O 256

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CHI

W 135-92

+32.5

WSH

W 112-102

+0.5

MIN

L 94-117

−19.5

ORL

W 129-99

+24.5

ORL

L 114-121

−12.5

LAL

L 125-131

−2.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg +3.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CHI

W 135-92

−10.5

WSH

W 112-102

−22.5

MIN

L 94-117

−17.5

ORL

W 129-99

+3.5

ORL

L 114-121

+8.5

LAL

L 125-131

+31.5

over 3under 3avg −1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Kings

6 games played

Straight up

0-6

0% wins

Against the spread

1-5

17% covers · avg −10.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-1

83% overs · avg +6.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

0-60%

L L L L L L

6 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

1-517%

L W L L L L

4 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

5-183%

U O O O O O

5 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@LAC	L 96-121	+5.5	L −19.5	226.5	U 217
Oct 23	vsPOR	L 120-128	+9.5	W +1.5	231.5	O 248
Oct 25	vsMEM	L 112-123	+3.5	L −7.5	234.5	O 235
Oct 27	@SA	L 103-130	+19.5	L −7.5	232.5	O 233
Oct 29	@NO	L 120-132	+6.5	L −5.5	234.5	O 252
Oct 31	@MEM	L 105-136	+7.5	L −23.5	229.5	O 241

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

LAC

L 96-121

−19.5

POR

L 120-128

+1.5

MEM

L 112-123

−7.5

L 103-130

−7.5

L 120-132

−5.5

MEM

L 105-136

−23.5

covered 1didn’t cover 5avg −10.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

LAC

L 96-121

−9.5

POR

L 120-128

+16.5

MEM

L 112-123

+0.5

L 103-130

+0.5

L 120-132

+17.5

MEM

L 105-136

+11.5

over 5under 1avg +6.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Raptors has the better starters

Position by position: Raptors 5, Kings 0, even 0

RaptorsBetterKings

G I. Quickley16.5 pts · 3.8 reb · 6.2 ast Score 33

TORSmall

G D. Acuff26.3 pts · 3.7 reb · 6.3 ast Score 4

G J. Walter12.2 pts · 3.8 reb · 2.2 ast Score 64

TORBig

F D. Sabonis16 pts · 15.8 reb · 7.3 ast Score 26

F S. Barnes24.8 pts · 6.7 reb · 4.5 ast Score 68

TORSmall

F D. Hunter14 pts · 5 reb · 1 ast Score 38

F R. Barrett19.8 pts · 6.2 reb · 4.2 ast Score 88

TORBig

F P. Achiuwa12.5 pts · 6 reb · 1 ast Score 7

F T. Jackson-Davis3.8 pts · 3 reb · 0.5 ast Score 52

TORBig

F L. Black7.1 pts · 5 reb · 1.5 ast Score 13

RaptorsBetterKings

TOR offense14th of 30 · +0.9

TORBig

SAC defense29th of 30 · -7.9

TOR defense9th of 30 · +3.1

TORBig

SAC offense27th of 30 · -3.0

Backcourt+4.4 · 2 players

TORBig

Backcourt-13.7 · 1 player

Frontcourt+19.0 · 3 players

TORBig

Frontcourt-18.6 · 4 players

Bench+2.4 · 5 players

TORBig

Bench-13.2 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestTOR betterSAC betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Raptors

Guards

I. Quickley31 minJ. Walter29 minJ. Shead22 minA. Martin7 minJ. Bradley4 min

Forwards

S. Barnes33 minR. Barrett32 minT. Jackson-Davis8 minC. Murray-Boyles19 minK. Anderson18 minJ. Battle15 min

Out

J. PoeltlDay-To-DayK. LeonardOut

Kings

Guards

D. Acuff37 minE. Sharp18 minD. Plowden14 minM. Monk12 minN. Clifford8 minA. FlaglerNew

Forwards

D. Sabonis37 minD. Hunter29 minP. Achiuwa29 minL. Black29 minJ. Mogbo17 minA. Karaban10 min

Out

Z. LaVineDay-To-DayK. MurrayOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

TOR118.2 #10

SAC109.3 #22

Points per possession

TOR1.11 #13

SAC1.03 #28

Pace (possessions)

TOR105.5 #8

SAC106.0 #6

Shooting

Effective FG%

TOR51.0 #22

SAC51.0 #23

3-point %

TOR32.0 #24

SAC30.4 #27

3-point attempt rate

TOR38.1 #25

SAC38.0 #27

Free throw rate

TOR27.7 #18

SAC26.4 #20

Possessions

Turnover rate

TOR13.5 #3

SAC15.9 #19

Offensive rebound rate

TOR32.6 #2

SAC22.9 #28

Assists per game

TOR29.2 #2

SAC24.5 #23

Defense

Points allowed

TOR110.3 #13

SAC128.3 #29

Points allowed per possession

TOR1.05 #5

SAC1.21 #29

Opponent effective FG%

TOR53.4 #16

SAC60.4 #30

Opponent 3-point %

TOR36.7 #21

SAC39.2 #27

Turnovers forced

TOR20.8 #1

SAC14.6 #22

Defensive rebound rate

TOR73.4 #13

SAC73.7 #12

Steals per game

TOR12.7 #2

SAC8.0 #21

Blocks per game

TOR4.3 #19

SAC2.3 #30

TOR		SAC
Scoring
118.2 #10	Points per game	109.3 #22
1.11 #13	Points per possession	1.03 #28
105.5 #8	Pace (possessions)	106.0 #6
Shooting
51.0 #22	Effective FG%	51.0 #23
32.0 #24	3-point %	30.4 #27
38.1 #25	3-point attempt rate	38.0 #27
27.7 #18	Free throw rate	26.4 #20
Possessions
13.5 #3	Turnover rate	15.9 #19
32.6 #2	Offensive rebound rate	22.9 #28
29.2 #2	Assists per game	24.5 #23
Defense
110.3 #13	Points allowed	128.3 #29
1.05 #5	Points allowed per possession	1.21 #29
53.4 #16	Opponent effective FG%	60.4 #30
36.7 #21	Opponent 3-point %	39.2 #27
20.8 #1	Turnovers forced	14.6 #22
73.4 #13	Defensive rebound rate	73.7 #12
12.7 #2	Steals per game	8.0 #21
4.3 #19	Blocks per game	2.3 #30

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Raptors

3-3 overall · 3-1 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Lakers125–131
Lvs Magic114–121
Wvs Magic129–99
L@ Timberwolves94–117
W@ Wizards112–102

A week or more of rest.

Kings

0-6 overall · 0-6 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Grizzlies105–136
L@ Pelicans120–132
L@ Spurs103–130
Lvs Grizzlies112–123
Lvs Trail Blazers120–128

A week or more of rest.

Raptors @ Kings

What could decide it: TOR has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Raptors

Kings

Raptors has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Raptors

Kings