Moda Center · at Trail Blazers
LineNo line yet
Total—
 MIL | This season | POR |
|---|---|---|
| 1-5 | Record | 4-1 |
| 2-4 | ATS | 3-2 |
| 5-1 | O/U | 2-3 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model: projects POR 123–108 · win probability POR 86%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 230.8
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record
What could decide it: POR has more of the edges
MIL 0, POR 7 · 2026-27 so far
PORBigPOR offense vs MIL defense
Offense 10th of 30 against a defense 28th, on the model’s ratings
PORBigShooting
Effective FG%: MIL 52.0 and allows 55.4; POR 56.2 and allows 51.3
PORBigMIL offense vs POR defense
Offense 26th of 30 against a defense 11th, on the model’s ratings
PORBigFree throws
Free throw rate: MIL 23.9, POR 35.9. Allowed: MIL 29.7, POR 27.8
PORBigTurnovers
Turnover rate: MIL 15.8%, POR 14.6%. Forced: MIL 12.2%, POR 14.8%
PORSmallThree-pointers
MIL hits 33.9% and allows 34.9%; POR hits 35.3% and allows 32.1%. Threes are 45.9% and 51.5% of their shots
Context
Tempo
About 105 possessions: MIL plays 106.2 a game (4th fastest), POR 103.5 (14th). Faster games mean more points
PORSmallHome court
POR at home. This season: POR 1-1 at home, MIL 0-2 away
Context
Schedule so far
MIL has played the 23rd-hardest schedule, POR the 27th. A record against a soft schedule means less
Even
Recent form
Last 5: MIL 2-3 ATS, margin -13.4; POR 3-2 ATS, margin +11.4
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: MIL 29.7%, POR 27.6%. Defensive: MIL 74.2%, POR 77.3%
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: MIL 100%, POR 100%. Transfers in: MIL 0, POR 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edge
Spread
Market—
ModelPOR -15.4
Model edge—
Total
Market—
Model230.8
Model edge—
Projected score
MIL 107.7 · POR 123.1
Win probability
POR 86%
1st half
Spread
POR -8.5
Total
115.5
Projected score
MIL 53.5 · POR 62
Market
Open → current
Spread
Open—
no open
Now—
Opening line not available
Total
Open—
no open
Now—
Moneyline
—
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2026-27, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MILlast 6 | 1-5 17% | 2-4 33% | 5-1 83% |
| PORlast 5 | 4-1 80% | 3-2 60% | 2-3 40% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22
MIL 4–6 PORPOR leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · POR has won the last 5 meetings · MIL 2-8 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 25, 2025-26 | MIL 99 @ POR 130 | POR -15.5 | POR W |
| Nov 24, 2025-26 | POR 115 @ MIL 103 | MIL -1.5 | POR W |
| Jan 28, 2024-25 | MIL 112 @ POR 125 | POR +5.5 | POR W |
| Jan 4, 2024-25 | POR 105 @ MIL 102 | MIL -11.5 | POR W |
| Jan 31, 2023-24 | MIL 116 @ POR 119 | POR +10.5 | POR W |
ATS History · 2026-27
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Bucks
6 games played
Straight up
1-5
17% wins
Against the spread
2-4
33% covers · avg −7.2 pts vs the line
Over / Under
5-1
83% overs · avg +3.2 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
21
@
WSH
WSHL 116-128
−7.5
23
vs
CHI
CHIL 125-132
−8.5
24
@
PHI
PHIL 116-127
+1.5
26
vs
IND
INDW 110-102
+11.5
28
vs
HOU
HOUL 100-132
−23.5
31
vs
CLE
CLEL 111-136
−16.5
covered 2didn’t cover 4avg −7.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
21
@WSH
WSHL 116-128
+4.5
23
vsCHI
CHIL 125-132
+15.5
24
@PHI
PHIL 116-127
+8.5
26
vsIND
INDW 110-102
−27.5
28
vsHOU
HOUL 100-132
+5.5
31
vsCLE
CLEL 111-136
+12.5
over 5under 1avg +3.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Trail Blazers
5 games played
Straight up
4-1
80% wins
Against the spread
3-2
60% covers · avg +6.3 pts vs the line
Over / Under
2-3
40% overs · avg −3.1 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
21
vs
PHX
PHXW 124-83
+37.5
23
@
SAC
SACW 128-120
−1.5
27
@
LAL
LALW 136-129
+8.5
29
vs
MEM
MEML 103-124
−28.5
31
@
UTAH
UTAHW 112-90
+15.5
covered 3didn’t cover 2avg +6.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
21
vsPHX
PHXW 124-83
−25.5
23
@SAC
SACW 128-120
+16.5
27
@LAL
LALW 136-129
+30.5
29
vsMEM
MEML 103-124
−6.5
31
@UTAH
UTAHW 112-90
−30.5
over 2under 3avg −3.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Trail Blazers has the better starters
Position by position: Bucks 0, Trail Blazers 4, even 1
BucksBetterTrail Blazers
G T. Herro22 pts · 4.8 reb · 4.2 ast
Score 6
→PORBig
G D. Lillard19.2 pts · 4 reb · 3.6 ast
Score 89
G R. Rollins11.2 pts · 4.3 reb · 4.7 ast
Score 2
→PORSmall
G S. Henderson8.8 pts · 2.4 reb · 1.4 ast
Score 34
F J. Jaquez16.2 pts · 7.2 reb · 3 ast
Score 51
→PORSmall
F D. Avdija23 pts · 6.8 reb · 5.6 ast
Score 82
F K. Kuzma11.3 pts · 7.2 reb · 2.8 ast
Score 31
=Even
F T. Camara15.2 pts · 2.4 reb · 1.2 ast
Score 44
C M. Turner7.2 pts · 5.2 reb · 2.2 ast
Score 56
→PORSmall
C D. Clingan8.6 pts · 8.8 reb · 1.4 ast
Score 74
BucksBetterTrail Blazers
MIL offense26th of 30 · -2.9
→PORBig
POR defense11th of 30 · +1.8
MIL defense28th of 30 · -6.0
→PORBig
POR offense10th of 30 · +1.4
Backcourt-20.2 · 2 players
→PORBig
Backcourt+11.6 · 2 players
Frontcourt+5.0 · 3 players
→PORBig
Frontcourt+16.7 · 3 players
Bench-0.7 · 5 players
→PORBig
Bench+15.6 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestMIL betterPOR betterNEW no NBA numbers yet
Depth chart
Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
BucksGuards
T. Herro30 minR. Rollins26 minK. Porter33 minK. Jakucionis23 minG. Trent21 minA. Green19 min
Forwards
J. Jaquez28 minK. Kuzma27 minN. Ament16 minO. Dieng12 minB. Markovic5 min
Centers
M. Turner26 minJ. Sims20 minK. Ware20 min
Trail BlazersGuards
D. Lillard29 minS. Henderson21 minJ. Holiday25 minS. Cissoko22 minV. Krejci11 minC. Youngblood6 min
Forwards
D. Avdija31 minT. Camara26 minJ. Tonje8 min
Centers
D. Clingan22 minM. Potter19 minR. Williams17 minB. Carlson12 minY. Hansen10 min
Out
J. MorantOut
Matchup stats
2026-27 · rank among 30 teams
Scoring
Points per game
MIL113.0 #17POR120.6 #4Points per possession
MIL1.07 #20POR1.16 #5Pace (possessions)
MIL106.2 #4POR103.5 #14Shooting
Effective FG%
MIL52.0 #21POR56.2 #43-point %
MIL33.9 #21POR35.3 #123-point attempt rate
MIL45.9 #8POR51.5 #1Free throw rate
MIL23.9 #25POR35.9 #3Possessions
Turnover rate
MIL15.8 #18POR14.6 #9Offensive rebound rate
MIL29.7 #8POR27.6 #14Assists per game
MIL26.0 #20POR26.2 #17Defense
Points allowed
MIL126.2 #28POR109.2 #10Points allowed per possession
MIL1.18 #28POR1.06 #10Opponent effective FG%
MIL55.4 #24POR51.3 #8Opponent 3-point %
MIL34.9 #14POR32.1 #8Turnovers forced
MIL12.2 #30POR14.8 #20Defensive rebound rate
MIL74.2 #10POR77.3 #3Steals per game
MIL5.7 #30POR8.6 #18Blocks per game
MIL4.0 #27POR4.2 #21| MIL | POR | |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| 113.0 #17 | Points per game | 120.6 #4 |
| 1.07 #20 | Points per possession | 1.16 #5 |
| 106.2 #4 | Pace (possessions) | 103.5 #14 |
| Shooting | ||
| 52.0 #21 | Effective FG% | 56.2 #4 |
| 33.9 #21 | 3-point % | 35.3 #12 |
| 45.9 #8 | 3-point attempt rate | 51.5 #1 |
| 23.9 #25 | Free throw rate | 35.9 #3 |
| Possessions | ||
| 15.8 #18 | Turnover rate | 14.6 #9 |
| 29.7 #8 | Offensive rebound rate | 27.6 #14 |
| 26.0 #20 | Assists per game | 26.2 #17 |
| Defense | ||
| 126.2 #28 | Points allowed | 109.2 #10 |
| 1.18 #28 | Points allowed per possession | 1.06 #10 |
| 55.4 #24 | Opponent effective FG% | 51.3 #8 |
| 34.9 #14 | Opponent 3-point % | 32.1 #8 |
| 12.2 #30 | Turnovers forced | 14.8 #20 |
| 74.2 #10 | Defensive rebound rate | 77.3 #3 |
| 5.7 #30 | Steals per game | 8.6 #18 |
| 4.0 #27 | Blocks per game | 4.2 #21 |
Bucks
1-5 overall · 1-4 in conference · Eastern Conference
Last five, 2026-27
- Lvs Cavaliers111–136
- Lvs Rockets100–132
- Wvs Pacers110–102
- L@ 76ers116–127
- Lvs Bulls125–132
A week or more of rest.
Trail Blazers
4-1 overall · 4-1 in conference · Western Conference
Last five, 2026-27
- W@ Jazz112–90
- Lvs Grizzlies103–124
- W@ Lakers136–129
- W@ Kings128–120
- Wvs Suns124–83
A week or more of rest.