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NBA · Mon, Mar 29

Mavericks @ Bucks

Fiserv Forum · at Bucks
#17DALMavericks
@
#29MILBucks
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
DALThis seasonMIL
4-2Record1-5
4-2ATS2-4
2-4O/U5-1

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects DAL 120–113 · win probability DAL 69%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 232.7
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: DAL has more of the edges

DAL 5, MIL 2 · 2026-27 so far
Context
Schedule so far
DAL has played the 2nd-hardest schedule, MIL the 23rd. A record against a soft schedule means less
DALBig
Shooting
Effective FG%: DAL 56.9 and allows 51.3; MIL 52.0 and allows 55.4
DALBig
DAL offense vs MIL defense
Offense 16th of 30 against a defense 28th, on the model’s ratings
DALBig
MIL offense vs DAL defense
Offense 26th of 30 against a defense 16th, on the model’s ratings
MILBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: DAL 27.8%, MIL 29.7%. Defensive: DAL 69.4%, MIL 74.2%
DALBig
Three-pointers
DAL hits 35.1% and allows 29.7%; MIL hits 33.9% and allows 34.9%. Threes are 42.1% and 45.9% of their shots
Context
Tempo
About 105 possessions: DAL plays 102.8 a game (18th fastest), MIL 106.2 (4th). Faster games mean more points
DALSmall
Recent form
Last 5: DAL 4-1 ATS, margin +6.6; MIL 2-3 ATS, margin -13.4
MILSmall
Home court
MIL at home. This season: MIL 1-3 at home, DAL 2-1 away
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: DAL 21.4, MIL 23.9. Allowed: DAL 27.2, MIL 29.7
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: DAL 16.8%, MIL 15.8%. Forced: DAL 14.5%, MIL 12.2%
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: DAL 100%, MIL 100%. Transfers in: DAL 0, MIL 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market vs model

The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edge
Spread
Market—
ModelDAL -7.0
Model edge—
Total
Market—
Model232.7
Model edge—
Projected score
DAL 119.8 · MIL 112.9
Win probability
DAL 69%
1st half
Spread
DAL -4.1
Total
116.4
Projected score
DAL 60.3 · MIL 56.2
Model edge = where the model differs from the market, in points: a reason to look, not a trend. The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. Model record › · 1st-half slate ›

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Mavericks has the better starters

Position by position: Mavericks 2, Bucks 0, even 3
MavericksBetterBucks
G M. Christie8.3 pts · 3.8 reb · 2 ast Score 9
Even
G T. Herro22 pts · 4.8 reb · 4.2 ast Score 6
F P. Washington13.8 pts · 8.2 reb · 1.2 ast Score 78
DALBig
G R. Rollins11.2 pts · 4.3 reb · 4.7 ast Score 2
F C. Flagg26.8 pts · 6 reb · 6.6 ast Score 49
Even
F J. Jaquez16.2 pts · 7.2 reb · 3 ast Score 51
F Z. Risacher9.5 pts · 6 reb · 1.7 ast Score 65
DALSmall
F K. Kuzma11.3 pts · 7.2 reb · 2.8 ast Score 31
F D. Gafford8.5 pts · 7 reb · 2.5 ast Score 46
Even
C M. Turner7.2 pts · 5.2 reb · 2.2 ast Score 56
MavericksBetterBucks
DAL offense16th of 30 · +0.6
DALBig
MIL defense28th of 30 · -6.0
DAL defense16th of 30 · -0.1
DALSmall
MIL offense26th of 30 · -2.9
Backcourt-6.6 · 1 player
DALBig
Backcourt-20.2 · 2 players
Frontcourt+16.0 · 4 players
DALBig
Frontcourt+5.0 · 3 players
Bench+2.7 · 5 players
DALBig
Bench-0.7 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestDAL betterMIL betterNEW no NBA numbers yet
Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Mavericks
Guards
M. Christie27 minM. Sasser19 minJ. Howard12 min
Forwards
P. Washington34 minC. Flagg32 minZ. Risacher30 minD. Gafford24 minN. Marshall28 minC. Martin20 min
Centers
M. Cisse14 min
Out
S. de LarreaOutK. IrvingDay-To-Day
Bucks
Guards
T. Herro30 minR. Rollins26 minK. Porter33 minK. Jakucionis23 minG. Trent21 minA. Green19 min
Forwards
J. Jaquez28 minK. Kuzma27 minN. Ament16 minO. Dieng12 minB. Markovic5 min
Centers
M. Turner26 minJ. Sims20 minK. Ware20 min
In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
DALMIL
Scoring
114.3 #14Points per game113.0 #17
1.12 #11Points per possession1.07 #20
102.8 #18Pace (possessions)106.2 #4
Shooting
56.9 #2Effective FG%52.0 #21
35.1 #143-point %33.9 #21
42.1 #183-point attempt rate45.9 #8
21.4 #29Free throw rate23.9 #25
Possessions
16.8 #23Turnover rate15.8 #18
27.8 #13Offensive rebound rate29.7 #8
27.0 #12Assists per game26.0 #20
Defense
111.8 #14Points allowed126.2 #28
1.08 #13Points allowed per possession1.18 #28
51.3 #9Opponent effective FG%55.4 #24
29.7 #2Opponent 3-point %34.9 #14
14.5 #24Turnovers forced12.2 #30
69.4 #25Defensive rebound rate74.2 #10
8.8 #16Steals per game5.7 #30
6.8 #2Blocks per game4.0 #27
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Mavericks

4-2 overall · 2-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27
  • Wvs Rockets116–111
  • Wvs Thunder120–96
  • W@ Heat113–109
  • Lvs Spurs106–122
  • W@ Pacers121–105

A week or more of rest.

Bucks

1-5 overall · 1-4 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27
  • Lvs Cavaliers111–136
  • Lvs Rockets100–132
  • Wvs Pacers110–102
  • L@ 76ers116–127
  • Lvs Bulls125–132

A week or more of rest.