Golden State Warriors at Washington Wizards: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Mar 27, 7:00 PM ETCapital One Arena · at Wizards

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Warriors and Wizards
GS	This season	WSH
4-3	Record	3-3
5-2	ATS	3-3
4-3	O/U	1-5

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects GS 118–115 · win probability GS 61%

Pick this game

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 232.8

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: GS has more of the edges

GS 6, WSH 3 · 2026-27 so far

Context

Schedule so far

GS has played the 6th-hardest schedule, WSH the 26th. A record against a soft schedule means less

GSBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: GS 33.2%, WSH 20.9%. Defensive: GS 70.4%, WSH 68.0%

GSBig

GS offense vs WSH defense

Offense 9th of 30 against a defense 23rd, on the model’s ratings

GSBig

WSH offense vs GS defense

Offense 25th of 30 against a defense 14th, on the model’s ratings

WSHBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: GS 28.8, WSH 34.2. Allowed: GS 27.3, WSH 21.8

GSBig

Recent form

Last 5: GS 5-0 ATS, margin +9.0; WSH 2-3 ATS, margin -1.4

WSHSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: GS 55.3 and allows 56.0; WSH 52.1 and allows 48.1

GSSmall

Three-pointers

GS hits 40.0% and allows 35.2%; WSH hits 29.3% and allows 28.7%. Threes are 47.1% and 37.6% of their shots

WSHSmall

Home court

WSH at home. This season: WSH 2-1 at home, GS 2-2 away

GSSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: GS 16.7%, WSH 14.6%. Forced: GS 17.6%, WSH 13.3%

Context

Tempo

About 102 possessions: GS plays 101.4 a game (25th fastest), WSH 102.3 (20th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: GS 100%, WSH 100%. Transfers in: GS 0, WSH 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
GS WWWWW	5-2	71%	3-1	—
WSH LWLLW	3-3	50%	2-1	—

Venue/role: GS away; WSH home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
GS OOOUO	4-3	57%	4-3
WSH UUUUU	1-5	17%	3-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
GSlast 7	4-3 57%	5-2 71%	4-3 57%
WSHlast 6	3-3 50%	3-3 50%	1-5 17%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Warriors

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 29	@ BKN	W109–106LU
Mar 31	@ PHI	L94–113LU
Apr 2	@ MIN	W119–114WO

Wizards

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 28	vs DAL	L105–111LU
Mar 31	vs CHI	W124–120WU
Apr 2	vs PHI	L131–153LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

GS 9–1 WSHGS leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · GS has won the last 8 meetings · GS 5-5 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 27, 2025-26	WSH 126 @ GS 131	GS -12.5	WSH W
Mar 16, 2025-26	GS 125 @ WSH 117	WSH +7.5	GS W
Jan 18, 2024-25	WSH 114 @ GS 122	GS -13.5	WSH W
Nov 4, 2024-25	GS 125 @ WSH 112	WSH +10.5	GS W
Feb 27, 2023-24	GS 123 @ WSH 112	WSH +11.5	WSH W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Warriors

7 games played

Straight up

4-3

57% wins

Against the spread

5-2

71% covers · avg +6.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-3

57% overs · avg +2.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-357%

L L L W W W W

4 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

5-271%

L L W W W W W

5 straight covers4 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

4-357%

U U O O O U O

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@LAL	L 105-127	+6.5	L −15.5	233.5	U 232
Oct 23	vsMEM	L 108-111	-4.5	L −7.5	236.5	U 219
Oct 24	@PHX	L 122-131	+9.5	W +0.5	221.5	O 253
Oct 26	@DEN	W 134-114	+6.5	W +26.5	236.5	O 248
Oct 28	@MIN	W 119-114	+3.5	W +8.5	227.5	O 233
Oct 30	vsLAL	W 112-95	+2.5	W +19.5	234.5	U 207
Nov 1	vsLAC	W 124-112	-1.5	W +10.5	220.5	O 236

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

LAL

L 105-127

−15.5

MEM

L 108-111

−7.5

PHX

L 122-131

+0.5

DEN

W 134-114

+26.5

MIN

W 119-114

+8.5

LAL

W 112-95

+19.5

LAC

W 124-112

+10.5

covered 5didn’t cover 2avg +6.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

LAL

L 105-127

−1.5

MEM

L 108-111

−17.5

PHX

L 122-131

+31.5

DEN

W 134-114

+11.5

MIN

W 119-114

+5.5

LAL

W 112-95

−27.5

LAC

W 124-112

+15.5

over 4under 3avg +2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Wizards

6 games played

Straight up

3-3

50% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg +3.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-5

17% overs · avg −14 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-350%

W L W L L W

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-350%

W L W L L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

1-517%

O U U U U U

5 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsMIL	W 128-116	-4.5	W +7.5	239.5	O 244
Oct 23	vsTOR	L 102-112	+9.5	L −0.5	236.5	U 214
Oct 24	@CHI	W 124-120	+1.5	W +5.5	244.5	U 244
Oct 26	@CHA	L 103-110	+2.5	L −4.5	225.5	U 213
Oct 28	@CLE	L 111-121	+9.5	L −0.5	240.5	U 232
Oct 30	vsCHA	W 95-79	-1.5	W +14.5	218.5	U 174

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MIL

W 128-116

+7.5

TOR

L 102-112

−0.5

CHI

W 124-120

+5.5

CHA

L 103-110

−4.5

CLE

L 111-121

−0.5

CHA

W 95-79

+14.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg +3.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MIL

W 128-116

+4.5

TOR

L 102-112

−22.5

CHI

W 124-120

−0.5

CHA

L 103-110

−12.5

CLE

L 111-121

−8.5

CHA

W 95-79

−44.5

over 1under 5avg −14 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Warriors has the better starters

Position by position: Warriors 3, Wizards 1, even 1

WarriorsBetterWizards

G B. Podziemski16.4 pts · 5.4 reb · 5.6 ast Score 72

GSBig

G T. Young20.7 pts · 3.8 reb · 10.2 ast Score 23

G D. Melton11.9 pts · 4.1 reb · 2.3 ast Score 62

GSBig

G B. Coulibaly8.3 pts · 4 reb · 0.5 ast Score 4

G B. Williams11.6 pts · 2.9 reb · 2.4 ast Score 5

WSHBig

F A. Davis22.3 pts · 9.2 reb · 2 ast Score 86

F Y. Lendeborg22.3 pts · 7.3 reb · 3.7 ast Score 78

GSBig

F K. George15.2 pts · 4.3 reb · 4.5 ast Score 36

F G. Niang6.4 pts · 2.9 reb · 1.3 ast Score 72

No call

F A. Dybantsa18 pts · 5 reb · 1.5 ast Not ranked

WarriorsBetterWizards

GS offense9th of 30 · +1.9

GSBig

WSH defense23rd of 30 · -2.9

GS defense14th of 30 · +0.3

GSBig

WSH offense25th of 30 · -2.5

Backcourt+5.3 · 3 players

GSBig

Backcourt-12.8 · 2 players

Frontcourt+12.0 · 2 players

Even

Frontcourt+11.5 · 3 players

Bench+5.4 · 5 players

GSBig

Bench-14.5 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestGS betterWSH betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Warriors

Guards

B. Podziemski34 minD. Melton22 minB. Williams17 minW. Richard16 minL. Cryer16 minG. Payton13 min

Forwards

Y. Lendeborg32 minG. Niang20 minG. Ike12 minM. Leons11 min

Centers

A. Horford19 minC. Bassey9 min

Out

S. CurryDay-To-DayG. SantosOutD. GreenDay-To-Day

Wizards

Guards

T. Young36 minB. Coulibaly26 minW. Riley22 minT. Johnson21 minB. Carrington20 minT. Mann13 min

Forwards

A. Davis34 minK. George32 minA. Dybantsa29 minK. Middleton14 minF. Okpara1 min

Centers

D. Ayton14 min

Out

A. GillDay-To-DayJ. ChampagnieOutA. SarrDay-To-Day

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

GS117.7 #11

WSH110.5 #20

Points per possession

GS1.17 #3

WSH1.08 #19

Pace (possessions)

GS101.4 #25

WSH102.3 #20

Shooting

Effective FG%

GS55.3 #8

WSH52.1 #20

3-point %

GS40.0 #2

WSH29.3 #29

3-point attempt rate

GS47.1 #5

WSH37.6 #28

Free throw rate

GS28.8 #15

WSH34.2 #5

Possessions

Turnover rate

GS16.7 #22

WSH14.6 #8

Offensive rebound rate

GS33.2 #1

WSH20.9 #29

Assists per game

GS27.4 #10

WSH24.5 #24

Defense

Points allowed

GS114.9 #16

WSH109.7 #11

Points allowed per possession

GS1.13 #21

WSH1.07 #11

Opponent effective FG%

GS56.0 #25

WSH48.1 #1

Opponent 3-point %

GS35.2 #16

WSH28.7 #1

Turnovers forced

GS17.6 #5

WSH13.3 #27

Defensive rebound rate

GS70.4 #23

WSH68.0 #28

Steals per game

GS9.1 #11

WSH7.2 #24

Blocks per game

GS4.1 #24

WSH5.3 #9

GS		WSH
Scoring
117.7 #11	Points per game	110.5 #20
1.17 #3	Points per possession	1.08 #19
101.4 #25	Pace (possessions)	102.3 #20
Shooting
55.3 #8	Effective FG%	52.1 #20
40.0 #2	3-point %	29.3 #29
47.1 #5	3-point attempt rate	37.6 #28
28.8 #15	Free throw rate	34.2 #5
Possessions
16.7 #22	Turnover rate	14.6 #8
33.2 #1	Offensive rebound rate	20.9 #29
27.4 #10	Assists per game	24.5 #24
Defense
114.9 #16	Points allowed	109.7 #11
1.13 #21	Points allowed per possession	1.07 #11
56.0 #25	Opponent effective FG%	48.1 #1
35.2 #16	Opponent 3-point %	28.7 #1
17.6 #5	Turnovers forced	13.3 #27
70.4 #23	Defensive rebound rate	68.0 #28
9.1 #11	Steals per game	7.2 #24
4.1 #24	Blocks per game	5.3 #9

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Warriors

4-3 overall · 4-3 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Clippers124–112
Wvs Lakers112–95
W@ Timberwolves119–114
W@ Nuggets134–114
L@ Suns122–131

A week or more of rest.

Wizards

3-3 overall · 3-3 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Hornets95–79
L@ Cavaliers111–121
L@ Hornets103–110
W@ Bulls124–120
Lvs Raptors102–112

A week or more of rest.

Warriors @ Wizards

What could decide it: GS has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Warriors

Wizards

Warriors has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Warriors

Wizards