Capital One Arena · at Wizards
LineNo line yet
Total—
 DAL | This season | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 4-2 | Record | 3-3 |
| 4-2 | ATS | 3-3 |
| 2-4 | O/U | 1-5 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model: projects DAL 118–114 · win probability DAL 60%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 231.7
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record
What could decide it: DAL has more of the edges
DAL 6, WSH 3 · 2026-27 so far
Context
Schedule so far
DAL has played the 2nd-hardest schedule, WSH the 26th. A record against a soft schedule means less
WSHBigFree throws
Free throw rate: DAL 21.4, WSH 34.2. Allowed: DAL 27.2, WSH 21.8
DALBigRebounding
Offensive rebound rate: DAL 27.8%, WSH 20.9%. Defensive: DAL 69.4%, WSH 68.0%
DALBigWSH offense vs DAL defense
Offense 25th of 30 against a defense 16th, on the model’s ratings
DALSmallThree-pointers
DAL hits 35.1% and allows 29.7%; WSH hits 29.3% and allows 28.7%. Threes are 42.1% and 37.6% of their shots
DALSmallDAL offense vs WSH defense
Offense 16th of 30 against a defense 23rd, on the model’s ratings
DALSmallRecent form
Last 5: DAL 4-1 ATS, margin +6.6; WSH 2-3 ATS, margin -1.4
WSHSmallTurnovers
Turnover rate: DAL 16.8%, WSH 14.6%. Forced: DAL 14.5%, WSH 13.3%
DALSmallShooting
Effective FG%: DAL 56.9 and allows 51.3; WSH 52.1 and allows 48.1
WSHSmallHome court
WSH at home. This season: WSH 2-1 at home, DAL 2-1 away
Context
Tempo
About 103 possessions: DAL plays 102.8 a game (18th fastest), WSH 102.3 (20th). Faster games mean more points
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: DAL 100%, WSH 100%. Transfers in: DAL 0, WSH 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edge
Spread
Market—
ModelDAL -3.6
Model edge—
Total
Market—
Model231.7
Model edge—
Projected score
DAL 117.7 · WSH 114
Win probability
DAL 60%
1st half
Spread
DAL -2.2
Total
115.9
Projected score
DAL 59.1 · WSH 56.9
Market
Open → current
Spread
Open—
no open
Now—
Opening line not available
Total
Open—
no open
Now—
Moneyline
—
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2026-27, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DALlast 6 | 4-2 67% | 4-2 67% | 2-4 33% |
| WSHlast 6 | 3-3 50% | 3-3 50% | 1-5 17% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22
DAL 5–5 WSHSeries tied · 10 games since 2021-22 · DAL 4-6 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2025-26 | DAL 111 @ WSH 105 | WSH +4.5 | DAL W |
| Oct 24, 2025-26 | WSH 117 @ DAL 107 | DAL -9.5 | WSH W |
| Jan 27, 2024-25 | WSH 108 @ DAL 130 | DAL -13.5 | DAL W |
| Dec 5, 2024-25 | DAL 137 @ WSH 101 | WSH +13.5 | DAL W |
| Feb 12, 2023-24 | WSH 104 @ DAL 112 | DAL -12.5 | WSH W |
ATS History · 2026-27
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Mavericks
6 games played
Straight up
4-2
67% wins
Against the spread
4-2
67% covers · avg +10.7 pts vs the line
Over / Under
2-4
33% overs · avg −6 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
21
@
HOU
HOUL 110-128
−8.5
23
@
IND
INDW 121-105
+23.5
24
vs
SA
SAL 106-122
−1.5
26
@
MIA
MIAW 113-109
+11.5
28
vs
OKC
OKCW 120-96
+28.5
30
vsHOU
HOUW 116-111
+10.5
covered 4didn’t cover 2avg +10.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
21
@HOU
HOUL 110-128
+7.5
23
@IND
INDW 121-105
−15.5
24
vsSA
SAL 106-122
−1.5
26
@MIA
MIAW 113-109
−18.5
28
vsOKC
OKCW 120-96
−11.5
30
vsHOU
HOUW 116-111
+3.5
over 2under 4avg −6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Wizards
6 games played
Straight up
3-3
50% wins
Against the spread
3-3
50% covers · avg +3.7 pts vs the line
Over / Under
1-5
17% overs · avg −14 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
21
vs
MIL
MILW 128-116
+7.5
23
vs
TOR
TORL 102-112
−0.5
24
@
CHI
CHIW 124-120
+5.5
26
@
CHA
CHAL 103-110
−4.5
28
@
CLE
CLEL 111-121
−0.5
30
vsCHA
CHAW 95-79
+14.5
covered 3didn’t cover 3avg +3.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
21
vsMIL
MILW 128-116
+4.5
23
vsTOR
TORL 102-112
−22.5
24
@CHI
CHIW 124-120
−0.5
26
@CHA
CHAL 103-110
−12.5
28
@CLE
CLEL 111-121
−8.5
30
vsCHA
CHAW 95-79
−44.5
over 1under 5avg −14 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Mavericks has the better starters
Position by position: Mavericks 2, Wizards 1, even 2
MavericksBetterWizards
G M. Christie8.3 pts · 3.8 reb · 2 ast
Score 9
=Even
G T. Young20.7 pts · 3.8 reb · 10.2 ast
Score 23
F P. Washington13.8 pts · 8.2 reb · 1.2 ast
Score 78
←DALBig
G B. Coulibaly8.3 pts · 4 reb · 0.5 ast
Score 4
F C. Flagg26.8 pts · 6 reb · 6.6 ast
Score 49
→WSHBig
F A. Davis22.3 pts · 9.2 reb · 2 ast
Score 86
F Z. Risacher9.5 pts · 6 reb · 1.7 ast
Score 65
←DALSmall
F K. George15.2 pts · 4.3 reb · 4.5 ast
Score 36
F D. Gafford8.5 pts · 7 reb · 2.5 ast
Score 46
=No call
F A. Dybantsa18 pts · 5 reb · 1.5 ast
Not ranked
MavericksBetterWizards
DAL offense16th of 30 · +0.6
←DALSmall
WSH defense23rd of 30 · -2.9
DAL defense16th of 30 · -0.1
←DALSmall
WSH offense25th of 30 · -2.5
Backcourt-6.6 · 1 player
←DALBig
Backcourt-12.8 · 2 players
Frontcourt+16.0 · 4 players
←DALBig
Frontcourt+11.5 · 3 players
Bench+2.7 · 5 players
←DALBig
Bench-14.5 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestDAL betterWSH betterNEW no NBA numbers yet
Depth chart
Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
MavericksGuards
M. Christie27 minM. Sasser19 minJ. Howard12 min
Forwards
P. Washington34 minC. Flagg32 minZ. Risacher30 minD. Gafford24 minN. Marshall28 minC. Martin20 min
Centers
M. Cisse14 min
Out
S. de LarreaOutK. IrvingDay-To-Day
WizardsGuards
T. Young36 minB. Coulibaly26 minW. Riley22 minT. Johnson21 minB. Carrington20 minT. Mann13 min
Forwards
A. Davis34 minK. George32 minA. Dybantsa29 minK. Middleton14 minF. Okpara1 min
Centers
D. Ayton14 min
Out
A. GillDay-To-DayJ. ChampagnieOutA. SarrDay-To-Day
Matchup stats
2026-27 · rank among 30 teams
Scoring
Points per game
DAL114.3 #14WSH110.5 #20Points per possession
DAL1.12 #11WSH1.08 #19Pace (possessions)
DAL102.8 #18WSH102.3 #20Shooting
Effective FG%
DAL56.9 #2WSH52.1 #203-point %
DAL35.1 #14WSH29.3 #293-point attempt rate
DAL42.1 #18WSH37.6 #28Free throw rate
DAL21.4 #29WSH34.2 #5Possessions
Turnover rate
DAL16.8 #23WSH14.6 #8Offensive rebound rate
DAL27.8 #13WSH20.9 #29Assists per game
DAL27.0 #12WSH24.5 #24Defense
Points allowed
DAL111.8 #14WSH109.7 #11Points allowed per possession
DAL1.08 #13WSH1.07 #11Opponent effective FG%
DAL51.3 #9WSH48.1 #1Opponent 3-point %
DAL29.7 #2WSH28.7 #1Turnovers forced
DAL14.5 #24WSH13.3 #27Defensive rebound rate
DAL69.4 #25WSH68.0 #28Steals per game
DAL8.8 #16WSH7.2 #24Blocks per game
DAL6.8 #2WSH5.3 #9| DAL | WSH | |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| 114.3 #14 | Points per game | 110.5 #20 |
| 1.12 #11 | Points per possession | 1.08 #19 |
| 102.8 #18 | Pace (possessions) | 102.3 #20 |
| Shooting | ||
| 56.9 #2 | Effective FG% | 52.1 #20 |
| 35.1 #14 | 3-point % | 29.3 #29 |
| 42.1 #18 | 3-point attempt rate | 37.6 #28 |
| 21.4 #29 | Free throw rate | 34.2 #5 |
| Possessions | ||
| 16.8 #23 | Turnover rate | 14.6 #8 |
| 27.8 #13 | Offensive rebound rate | 20.9 #29 |
| 27.0 #12 | Assists per game | 24.5 #24 |
| Defense | ||
| 111.8 #14 | Points allowed | 109.7 #11 |
| 1.08 #13 | Points allowed per possession | 1.07 #11 |
| 51.3 #9 | Opponent effective FG% | 48.1 #1 |
| 29.7 #2 | Opponent 3-point % | 28.7 #1 |
| 14.5 #24 | Turnovers forced | 13.3 #27 |
| 69.4 #25 | Defensive rebound rate | 68.0 #28 |
| 8.8 #16 | Steals per game | 7.2 #24 |
| 6.8 #2 | Blocks per game | 5.3 #9 |
Mavericks
4-2 overall · 2-2 in conference · Western Conference
Last five, 2026-27
- Wvs Rockets116–111
- Wvs Thunder120–96
- W@ Heat113–109
- Lvs Spurs106–122
- W@ Pacers121–105
A week or more of rest.
Wizards
3-3 overall · 3-3 in conference · Eastern Conference
Last five, 2026-27
- Wvs Hornets95–79
- L@ Cavaliers111–121
- L@ Hornets103–110
- W@ Bulls124–120
- Lvs Raptors102–112
A week or more of rest.