Boston Celtics at New Orleans Pelicans: Model Line and Edge

Sun, Mar 28, 7:00 PM ETSmoothie King Center · at Pelicans

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Celtics and Pelicans
BOS	This season	NO
5-1	Record	2-4
3-3	ATS	4-2
2-4	O/U	4-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects BOS 118–111 · win probability BOS 69%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 228.7

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: BOS has more of the edges

BOS 5, NO 3 · 2026-27 so far

BOSBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: BOS 14.9%, NO 17.4%. Forced: BOS 17.8%, NO 16.3%

BOSBig

BOS offense vs NO defense

Offense 15th of 30 against a defense 24th, on the model’s ratings

BOSSmall

NO offense vs BOS defense

Offense 13th of 30 against a defense 5th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Tempo

About 106 possessions: BOS plays 103.0 a game (16th fastest), NO 108.0 (2nd). Faster games mean more points

BOSSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: BOS 55.0 and allows 51.3; NO 55.1 and allows 54.2

NOSmall

Home court

NO at home. This season: NO 2-2 at home, BOS 1-1 away

NOSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: BOS 28.3%, NO 24.3%. Defensive: BOS 68.4%, NO 76.4%

NOSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: BOS 32.3, NO 35.3. Allowed: BOS 31.7, NO 30.6

BOSSmall

Three-pointers

BOS hits 35.5% and allows 33.8%; NO hits 31.2% and allows 30.5%. Threes are 45.9% and 32.8% of their shots

Even

Recent form

Last 5: BOS 3-2 ATS, margin +13.0; NO 4-1 ATS, margin +2.8

Context

Schedule so far

BOS has played the 25th-hardest schedule, NO the 28th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: BOS 100%, NO 100%. Transfers in: BOS 0, NO 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BOS WWLLW	3-3	50%	1-1	—
NO WWLWW	4-2	67%	2-2	—

Venue/role: BOS away; NO home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
BOS UUOUU	2-4	33%	5-1
NO OOUOU	4-2	67%	2-4

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BOSlast 6	5-1 83%	3-3 50%	2-4 33%
NOlast 6	2-4 33%	4-2 67%	4-2 67%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Celtics

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 30	@ IND	W119–104WU
Apr 1	@ CLE	W109–98WU
Apr 2	vs MIA	W147–129WO

Pelicans

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 31	@ MIL	L118–139LO
Apr 3	@ OKC	L95–104WU
Apr 5	vs WSH	W138–118WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

BOS 10–0 NOBOS leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · BOS has won the last 10 meetings · BOS 7-3 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Apr 10, 2025-26	NO 118 @ BOS 144	BOS -18.5	BOS W
Oct 27, 2025-26	BOS 122 @ NO 90	NO +4.5	BOS W
Jan 31, 2024-25	BOS 118 @ NO 116	NO +11.5	NO W
Jan 12, 2024-25	NO 119 @ BOS 120	BOS -14.5	NO W
Mar 30, 2023-24	BOS 104 @ NO 92	NO +5.5	BOS W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Celtics

6 games played

Straight up

5-1

83% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg +0.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg +1.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-183%

L W W W W W

5 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

L W W L L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-433%

O U U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 20	@DET	L 113-121	-1.5	L −9.5	220.5	O 234
Oct 23	vsNY	W 107-103	-2.5	W +1.5	220.5	U 210
Oct 26	vsCHI	W 134-99	-14.5	W +20.5	233.5	U 233
Oct 27	vsBKN	W 125-124	-13.5	L −12.5	223.5	O 249
Oct 30	vsCHI	W 125-111	-14.5	L −0.5	236.5	U 236
Nov 1	@ORL	W 108-97	-6.5	W +4.5	221.5	U 205

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

DET

L 113-121

−9.5

W 107-103

+1.5

CHI

W 134-99

+20.5

BKN

W 125-124

−12.5

CHI

W 125-111

−0.5

ORL

W 108-97

+4.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg +0.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

DET

L 113-121

+13.5

W 107-103

−10.5

CHI

W 134-99

−0.5

BKN

W 125-124

+25.5

CHI

W 125-111

−0.5

ORL

W 108-97

−16.5

over 2under 4avg +1.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Pelicans

6 games played

Straight up

2-4

33% wins

Against the spread

4-2

67% covers · avg +5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-2

67% overs · avg −1.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-433%

L L L L W W

2 straight wins2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

4-267%

L W W L W W

2 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

4-267%

O O O U O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsIND	L 120-123	+2.5	L −0.5	238.5	O 243
Oct 23	@UTAH	L 119-120	+1.5	W +0.5	238.5	O 239
Oct 24	@DEN	L 135-141	+11.5	W +5.5	239.5	O 276
Oct 28	vsDEN	L 91-104	+4.5	L −8.5	241.5	U 195
Oct 29	vsSAC	W 132-120	-6.5	W +5.5	234.5	O 252
Oct 31	vsATL	W 121-99	+5.5	W +27.5	239.5	U 220

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

IND

L 120-123

−0.5

UTAH

L 119-120

+0.5

DEN

L 135-141

+5.5

DEN

L 91-104

−8.5

SAC

W 132-120

+5.5

ATL

W 121-99

+27.5

covered 4didn’t cover 2avg +5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

IND

L 120-123

+4.5

UTAH

L 119-120

+0.5

DEN

L 135-141

+36.5

DEN

L 91-104

−46.5

SAC

W 132-120

+17.5

ATL

W 121-99

−19.5

over 4under 2avg −1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Celtics has the better starters

Position by position: Celtics 2, Pelicans 0, even 3

CelticsBetterPelicans

G D. White11.8 pts · 3.3 reb · 5.2 ast Score 87

BOSBig

G D. Murray17.8 pts · 5.8 reb · 6 ast Score 45

G J. Walsh4.3 pts · 3.8 reb · 1 ast Score 74

BOSBig

G J. Fears13 pts · 4.3 reb · 4.5 ast Score 19

F J. Tatum28.3 pts · 6 reb · 7.7 ast Score 86

Even

F Z. Williamson20.7 pts · 4.3 reb · 2.5 ast Score 81

F P. George20.7 pts · 6 reb · 5 ast Score 66

Even

F H. Jones6.8 pts · 2.5 reb · 0.7 ast Score 75

C N. Queta8.8 pts · 5.3 reb · 1.2 ast Score 62

Even

C D. Jordan6 pts · 6.5 reb · 1 ast Score 52

CelticsBetterPelicans

BOS offense15th of 30 · +0.8

BOSSmall

NO defense24th of 30 · -3.7

BOS defense5th of 30 · +4.6

BOSSmall

NO offense13th of 30 · +1.1

Backcourt+15.6 · 2 players

BOSBig

Backcourt-1.6 · 2 players

Frontcourt+21.5 · 3 players

BOSBig

Frontcourt+15.7 · 3 players

Bench+32.1 · 5 players

BOSBig

Bench-16.0 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestBOS betterNO betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Celtics

Guards

D. White30 minJ. Walsh17 minP. Pritchard28 minB. Scheierman19 minM. Conley18 minH. Gonzalez12 min

Forwards

J. Tatum36 minP. George31 minS. Hauser20 minA. Williams7 minC. Cenac4 min

Centers

N. Queta21 minL. Garza11 min

Out

M. RobinsonDay-To-Day

Pelicans

Guards

D. Murray32 minJ. Fears25 minS. Bey25 minB. McGowens21 minB. Mathurin18 minA. Johnson10 min

Forwards

Z. Williamson32 minH. Jones21 minJ. Reese31 minT. Watford18 minK. Matkovic16 min

Centers

D. Jordan17 minD. Queen24 min

Out

J. PooleOutT. MurphyDay-To-DayY. MissiOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

BOS118.7 #8

NO119.7 #7

Points per possession

BOS1.15 #6

NO1.10 #15

Pace (possessions)

BOS103.0 #16

NO108.0 #2

Shooting

Effective FG%

BOS55.0 #10

NO55.1 #9

3-point %

BOS35.5 #10

NO31.2 #25

3-point attempt rate

BOS45.9 #7

NO32.8 #30

Free throw rate

BOS32.3 #7

NO35.3 #4

Possessions

Turnover rate

BOS14.9 #11

NO17.4 #26

Offensive rebound rate

BOS28.3 #12

NO24.3 #25

Assists per game

BOS28.0 #6

NO25.5 #21

Defense

Points allowed

BOS109.2 #9

NO117.8 #24

Points allowed per possession

BOS1.06 #9

NO1.09 #16

Opponent effective FG%

BOS51.3 #7

NO54.2 #21

Opponent 3-point %

BOS33.8 #12

NO30.5 #5

Turnovers forced

BOS17.8 #3

NO16.3 #10

Defensive rebound rate

BOS68.4 #27

NO76.4 #6

Steals per game

BOS9.2 #9

NO13.7 #1

Blocks per game

BOS4.0 #25

NO4.8 #16

BOS		NO
Scoring
118.7 #8	Points per game	119.7 #7
1.15 #6	Points per possession	1.10 #15
103.0 #16	Pace (possessions)	108.0 #2
Shooting
55.0 #10	Effective FG%	55.1 #9
35.5 #10	3-point %	31.2 #25
45.9 #7	3-point attempt rate	32.8 #30
32.3 #7	Free throw rate	35.3 #4
Possessions
14.9 #11	Turnover rate	17.4 #26
28.3 #12	Offensive rebound rate	24.3 #25
28.0 #6	Assists per game	25.5 #21
Defense
109.2 #9	Points allowed	117.8 #24
1.06 #9	Points allowed per possession	1.09 #16
51.3 #7	Opponent effective FG%	54.2 #21
33.8 #12	Opponent 3-point %	30.5 #5
17.8 #3	Turnovers forced	16.3 #10
68.4 #27	Defensive rebound rate	76.4 #6
9.2 #9	Steals per game	13.7 #1
4.0 #25	Blocks per game	4.8 #16

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Celtics

5-1 overall · 5-1 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Magic108–97
Wvs Bulls125–111
Wvs Nets125–124
Wvs Bulls134–99
Wvs Knicks107–103

A week or more of rest.

Pelicans

2-4 overall · 1-3 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Hawks121–99
Wvs Kings132–120
Lvs Nuggets91–104
L@ Nuggets135–141
L@ Jazz119–120

A week or more of rest.

Celtics @ Pelicans

What could decide it: BOS has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Celtics

Pelicans

Celtics has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Celtics

Pelicans