Memphis Grizzlies at Indiana Pacers: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Mar 24, 7:00 PM ETGainbridge Fieldhouse · at Pacers

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Grizzlies and Pacers
MEM	This season	IND
6-0	Record	2-5
6-0	ATS	3-4
2-4	O/U	3-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects MEM 117–115 · win probability MEM 57%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 232.1

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: MEM has more of the edges

MEM 6, IND 1 · 2026-27 so far

MEMBig

Three-pointers

MEM hits 41.7% and allows 30.0%; IND hits 34.1% and allows 35.9%. Threes are 42.1% and 43.1% of their shots

MEMBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: MEM 30.6%, IND 23.1%. Defensive: MEM 75.0%, IND 72.7%

MEMBig

MEM offense vs IND defense

Offense 11th of 30 against a defense 25th, on the model’s ratings

MEMBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: MEM 55.9 and allows 49.2; IND 53.9 and allows 53.9

MEMBig

IND offense vs MEM defense

Offense 24th of 30 against a defense 13th, on the model’s ratings

MEMBig

Recent form

Last 5: MEM 5-0 ATS, margin +14.2; IND 2-3 ATS, margin -2.8

INDSmall

Home court

IND at home. This season: IND 0-3 at home, MEM 4-0 away

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: MEM 25.3, IND 31.2. Allowed: MEM 31.4, IND 32.1

Context

Schedule so far

MEM has played the 30th-hardest schedule, IND the 29th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: MEM 15.4%, IND 14.8%. Forced: MEM 15.7%, IND 14.9%

Context

Tempo

About 103 possessions: MEM plays 103.6 a game (13th fastest), IND 103.1 (15th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: MEM 100%, IND 100%. Transfers in: MEM 0, IND 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MEM WWWWW	6-0	100%	4-0	—
IND WLWLL	3-4	43%	1-2	—

Venue/role: MEM away; IND home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
MEM UOUUO	2-4	33%	6-0
IND OUUOU	3-4	43%	2-5

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MEMlast 6	6-0 100%	6-0 100%	2-4 33%
INDlast 7	2-5 29%	3-4 43%	3-4 43%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Grizzlies

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 25	vs CHI	W125–124WO
Mar 28	@ BKN	L115–126LO
Mar 30	vs LAL	L114–120LU

Pacers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 25	vs SA	L119–134WO
Mar 29	@ CHI	W145–126WO
Mar 30	vs BOS	L104–119LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

MEM 8–2 INDMEM leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · MEM has won the last 2 meetings · MEM 9-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 1, 2025-26	MEM 125 @ IND 106	IND -1.5	MEM W
Oct 25, 2025-26	IND 103 @ MEM 128	MEM -1.5	MEM W
Feb 20, 2024-25	MEM 113 @ IND 127	IND -0.5	IND W
Dec 1, 2024-25	IND 121 @ MEM 136	MEM -5.5	MEM W
Jan 28, 2023-24	MEM 110 @ IND 116	IND -7.5	MEM W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Grizzlies

6 games played

Straight up

6-0

100% wins

Against the spread

6-0

100% covers · avg +14.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg −8.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

6-0100%

W W W W W W

6 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

6-0100%

W W W W W W

6 straight covers4 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-433%

U U O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsUTAH	W 123-103	-1.5	W +18.5	240.5	U 226
Oct 23	@GS	W 111-108	+4.5	W +7.5	236.5	U 219
Oct 25	@SAC	W 123-112	-3.5	W +7.5	234.5	O 235
Oct 26	@UTAH	W 110-105	-1.5	W +3.5	237.5	U 215
Oct 29	@POR	W 124-103	+7.5	W +28.5	233.5	U 227
Oct 31	vsSAC	W 136-105	-7.5	W +23.5	229.5	O 241

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UTAH

W 123-103

+18.5

W 111-108

+7.5

SAC

W 123-112

+7.5

UTAH

W 110-105

+3.5

POR

W 124-103

+28.5

SAC

W 136-105

+23.5

covered 6didn’t cover 0avg +14.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UTAH

W 123-103

−14.5

W 111-108

−17.5

SAC

W 123-112

+0.5

UTAH

W 110-105

−22.5

POR

W 124-103

−6.5

SAC

W 136-105

+11.5

over 2under 4avg −8.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Pacers

7 games played

Straight up

2-5

29% wins

Against the spread

3-4

43% covers · avg −4.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-4

43% overs · avg −6.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-529%

W L W L L L L

4 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-443%

W L W L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-443%

O U O U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@NO	W 123-120	-2.5	W +0.5	238.5	O 243
Oct 23	vsDAL	L 105-121	-7.5	L −23.5	241.5	U 226
Oct 25	@BKN	W 136-109	-5.5	W +21.5	231.5	O 245
Oct 26	@MIL	L 102-110	-3.5	L −11.5	239.5	U 212
Oct 28	vsPHI	L 109-114	+7.5	W +2.5	234.5	U 223
Oct 30	@MIA	L 125-145	+8.5	L −11.5	236.5	O 270
Nov 1	vsBKN	L 90-98	-3.5	L −11.5	230.5	U 188

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 123-120

+0.5

DAL

L 105-121

−23.5

BKN

W 136-109

+21.5

MIL

L 102-110

−11.5

PHI

L 109-114

+2.5

MIA

L 125-145

−11.5

BKN

L 90-98

−11.5

covered 3didn’t cover 4avg −4.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 123-120

+4.5

DAL

L 105-121

−15.5

BKN

W 136-109

+13.5

MIL

L 102-110

−27.5

PHI

L 109-114

−11.5

MIA

L 125-145

+33.5

BKN

L 90-98

−42.5

over 3under 4avg −6.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Grizzlies has the better starters

Position by position: Grizzlies 3, Pacers 1, even 1

GrizzliesBetterPacers

G T. Jerome25.8 pts · 3.2 reb · 5.6 ast Score 97

MEMSmall

G A. Nembhard18.5 pts · 2.2 reb · 7.3 ast Score 70

F C. Boozer17.7 pts · 10.5 reb · 5.7 ast Score 87

MEMBig

G K. Oubre9.4 pts · 2.6 reb · 1.6 ast Score 32

F C. Coward13 pts · 8.6 reb · 2.6 ast Score 33

INDSmall

G A. Nesmith12.2 pts · 2.2 reb · 1.8 ast Score 65

F J. Wells12.2 pts · 3.3 reb · 1 ast Score 85

Even

F P. Siakam21.4 pts · 7.4 reb · 4 ast Score 74

C Z. Edey7 pts · 7 reb · 1 ast Score 92

MEMBig

C J. Huff6 pts · 3.3 reb · 1 ast Score 10

GrizzliesBetterPacers

MEM offense11th of 30 · +1.3

MEMBig

IND defense25th of 30 · -3.8

MEM defense13th of 30 · +1.1

MEMBig

IND offense24th of 30 · -2.3

Backcourt+16.5 · 1 player

MEMBig

Backcourt+10.3 · 3 players

Frontcourt+29.5 · 4 players

MEMBig

Frontcourt+4.0 · 2 players

Bench-18.8 · 5 players

MEMBig

Bench-26.3 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestMEM betterIND betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Grizzlies

Guards

T. Jerome30 minJ. Mashack22 minJ. Small21 minC. Spencer19 minW. Clayton11 min

Forwards

C. Boozer31 minC. Coward28 minJ. Wells27 minJ. Grant24 minT. Hendricks19 minO. Prosper19 min

Centers

Z. Edey20 minI. Stewart18 minC. Cooper3 min

Out

S. PippenDay-To-DayQ. PostDay-To-Day

Pacers

Guards

A. Nembhard33 minK. Oubre23 minA. Nesmith23 minQ. Jackson20 minK. Brown12 minB. Smith6 min

Forwards

P. Siakam32 minJ. Walker22 minL. Nance16 minJ. Slawson13 min

Centers

J. Huff17 min

Out

I. ZubacOutO. ToppinDay-To-DayT. HaliburtonOutB. SheppardOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

MEM121.2 #1

IND112.9 #18

Points per possession

MEM1.16 #4

IND1.10 #17

Pace (possessions)

MEM103.6 #13

IND103.1 #15

Shooting

Effective FG%

MEM55.9 #5

IND53.9 #14

3-point %

MEM41.7 #1

IND34.1 #18

3-point attempt rate

MEM42.1 #19

IND43.1 #15

Free throw rate

MEM25.3 #22

IND31.2 #12

Possessions

Turnover rate

MEM15.4 #16

IND14.8 #10

Offensive rebound rate

MEM30.6 #5

IND23.1 #27

Assists per game

MEM27.0 #13

IND28.0 #7

Defense

Points allowed

MEM106.0 #3

IND116.7 #23

Points allowed per possession

MEM1.03 #2

IND1.13 #23

Opponent effective FG%

MEM49.2 #3

IND53.9 #19

Opponent 3-point %

MEM30.0 #3

IND35.9 #20

Turnovers forced

MEM15.7 #15

IND14.9 #19

Defensive rebound rate

MEM75.0 #9

IND72.7 #16

Steals per game

MEM6.3 #28

IND6.9 #27

Blocks per game

MEM5.2 #11

IND4.0 #26

MEM		IND
Scoring
121.2 #1	Points per game	112.9 #18
1.16 #4	Points per possession	1.10 #17
103.6 #13	Pace (possessions)	103.1 #15
Shooting
55.9 #5	Effective FG%	53.9 #14
41.7 #1	3-point %	34.1 #18
42.1 #19	3-point attempt rate	43.1 #15
25.3 #22	Free throw rate	31.2 #12
Possessions
15.4 #16	Turnover rate	14.8 #10
30.6 #5	Offensive rebound rate	23.1 #27
27.0 #13	Assists per game	28.0 #7
Defense
106.0 #3	Points allowed	116.7 #23
1.03 #2	Points allowed per possession	1.13 #23
49.2 #3	Opponent effective FG%	53.9 #19
30.0 #3	Opponent 3-point %	35.9 #20
15.7 #15	Turnovers forced	14.9 #19
75.0 #9	Defensive rebound rate	72.7 #16
6.3 #28	Steals per game	6.9 #27
5.2 #11	Blocks per game	4.0 #26

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Grizzlies

6-0 overall · 6-0 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Kings136–105
W@ Trail Blazers124–103
W@ Jazz110–105
W@ Kings123–112
W@ Warriors111–108

A week or more of rest.

Pacers

2-5 overall · 1-4 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs Nets90–98
L@ Heat125–145
Lvs 76ers109–114
L@ Bucks102–110
W@ Nets136–109

A week or more of rest.

Grizzlies @ Pacers

What could decide it: MEM has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Grizzlies

Pacers

Grizzlies has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Grizzlies

Pacers