Denver Nuggets at Washington Wizards: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Mar 24, 7:00 PM ETCapital One Arena · at Wizards

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Nuggets and Wizards
DEN	This season	WSH
3-2	Record	3-3
2-3	ATS	3-3
3-2	O/U	1-5

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects DEN 119–115 · win probability DEN 63%

Pick this game

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 233.9

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: DEN has more of the edges

DEN 4, WSH 2 · 2026-27 so far

DENBig

DEN offense vs WSH defense

Offense 8th of 30 against a defense 23rd, on the model’s ratings

DENBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: DEN 27.5%, WSH 20.9%. Defensive: DEN 70.5%, WSH 68.0%

Context

Schedule so far

DEN has played the 18th-hardest schedule, WSH the 26th. A record against a soft schedule means less

DENSmall

WSH offense vs DEN defense

Offense 25th of 30 against a defense 19th, on the model’s ratings

WSHSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: DEN 54.7 and allows 54.2; WSH 52.1 and allows 48.1

WSHSmall

Home court

WSH at home. This season: WSH 2-1 at home, DEN 2-1 away

DENSmall

Three-pointers

DEN hits 37.4% and allows 35.0%; WSH hits 29.3% and allows 28.7%. Threes are 40.9% and 37.6% of their shots

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: DEN 31.3, WSH 34.2. Allowed: DEN 21.5, WSH 21.8

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: DEN 16.4%, WSH 14.6%. Forced: DEN 15.9%, WSH 13.3%

Context

Tempo

About 102 possessions: DEN plays 102.1 a game (21st fastest), WSH 102.3 (20th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Recent form

Last 5: DEN 2-3 ATS, margin -1.2; WSH 2-3 ATS, margin -1.4

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: DEN 100%, WSH 100%. Transfers in: DEN 0, WSH 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
DEN LLLWW	2-3	40%	2-1	—
WSH LWLLW	3-3	50%	2-1	—

Venue/role: DEN away; WSH home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
DEN UOOUO	3-2	60%	3-2
WSH UUUUU	1-5	17%	3-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
DENlast 5	3-2 60%	2-3 40%	3-2 60%
WSHlast 6	3-3 50%	3-3 50%	1-5 17%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Nuggets

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 25	@ BKN	W107–103LO
Mar 28	vs PHI	W124–96WU
Mar 29	@ SAC	W136–105WO

Wizards

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 27	vs GS	L126–131WO
Mar 28	vs DAL	L105–111LU
Mar 31	vs CHI	W124–120WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

DEN 8–2 WSHDEN leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · DEN has won the last 2 meetings · DEN 6-4 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Jan 22, 2025-26	DEN 107 @ WSH 97	WSH +6.5	DEN W
Jan 17, 2025-26	WSH 115 @ DEN 121	DEN -10.5	WSH W
Mar 15, 2024-25	WSH 126 @ DEN 123	DEN -12.5	WSH W
Dec 7, 2024-25	DEN 113 @ WSH 122	WSH +11.5	WSH W
Feb 22, 2023-24	WSH 110 @ DEN 130	DEN -15.5	DEN W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Nuggets

5 games played

Straight up

3-2

60% wins

Against the spread

2-3

40% covers · avg −5.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-2

60% overs · avg −7.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-260%

L W L W W

2 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-340%

L L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-260%

U O O U O

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 22	@OKC	L 84-96	+7.5	L −4.5	236.5	U 180
Oct 24	vsNO	W 141-135	-11.5	L −5.5	239.5	O 276
Oct 26	vsGS	L 114-134	-6.5	L −26.5	236.5	O 248
Oct 28	@NO	W 104-91	-4.5	W +8.5	241.5	U 195
Oct 30	@PHX	W 127-120	-4.5	W +2.5	231.5	O 247

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

OKC

L 84-96

−4.5

W 141-135

−5.5

L 114-134

−26.5

W 104-91

+8.5

PHX

W 127-120

+2.5

covered 2didn’t cover 3avg −5.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

OKC

L 84-96

−56.5

W 141-135

+36.5

L 114-134

+11.5

W 104-91

−46.5

PHX

W 127-120

+15.5

over 3under 2avg −7.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Wizards

6 games played

Straight up

3-3

50% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg +3.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-5

17% overs · avg −14 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-350%

W L W L L W

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-350%

W L W L L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

1-517%

O U U U U U

5 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsMIL	W 128-116	-4.5	W +7.5	239.5	O 244
Oct 23	vsTOR	L 102-112	+9.5	L −0.5	236.5	U 214
Oct 24	@CHI	W 124-120	+1.5	W +5.5	244.5	U 244
Oct 26	@CHA	L 103-110	+2.5	L −4.5	225.5	U 213
Oct 28	@CLE	L 111-121	+9.5	L −0.5	240.5	U 232
Oct 30	vsCHA	W 95-79	-1.5	W +14.5	218.5	U 174

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MIL

W 128-116

+7.5

TOR

L 102-112

−0.5

CHI

W 124-120

+5.5

CHA

L 103-110

−4.5

CLE

L 111-121

−0.5

CHA

W 95-79

+14.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg +3.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MIL

W 128-116

+4.5

TOR

L 102-112

−22.5

CHI

W 124-120

−0.5

CHA

L 103-110

−12.5

CLE

L 111-121

−8.5

CHA

W 95-79

−44.5

over 1under 5avg −14 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Nuggets has the better starters

Position by position: Nuggets 3, Wizards 0, even 2

NuggetsBetterWizards

G J. Murray25.8 pts · 5.6 reb · 5.6 ast Score 40

DENSmall

G T. Young20.7 pts · 3.8 reb · 10.2 ast Score 23

G C. Braun15.4 pts · 4.2 reb · 2 ast Score 66

DENBig

G B. Coulibaly8.3 pts · 4 reb · 0.5 ast Score 4

F A. Gordon12.8 pts · 6 reb · 3 ast Score 74

Even

F A. Davis22.3 pts · 9.2 reb · 2 ast Score 86

F C. Johnson8.5 pts · 5.5 reb · 2 ast Score 98

DENBig

F K. George15.2 pts · 4.3 reb · 4.5 ast Score 36

C N. Jokic21.2 pts · 9.8 reb · 9.2 ast Score 86

No call

F A. Dybantsa18 pts · 5 reb · 1.5 ast Not ranked

NuggetsBetterWizards

DEN offense8th of 30 · +2.5

DENBig

WSH defense23rd of 30 · -2.9

DEN defense19th of 30 · -0.9

DENSmall

WSH offense25th of 30 · -2.5

Backcourt+7.7 · 2 players

DENBig

Backcourt-12.8 · 2 players

Frontcourt+35.7 · 3 players

DENBig

Frontcourt+11.5 · 3 players

Bench-4.0 · 5 players

DENBig

Bench-14.5 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestDEN betterWSH betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Nuggets

Guards

J. Murray38 minC. Braun36 minD. DeRozan26 minR. Nembhard20 minT. Jones10 min

Forwards

A. Gordon30 minC. Johnson23 minT. Brazile23 minC. Whitmore17 minB. Hopkins17 minM. Bagley12 min

Centers

N. Jokic37 min

Out

A. DialloOut

Wizards

Guards

T. Young36 minB. Coulibaly26 minW. Riley22 minT. Johnson21 minB. Carrington20 minT. Mann13 min

Forwards

A. Davis34 minK. George32 minA. Dybantsa29 minK. Middleton14 minF. Okpara1 min

Centers

D. Ayton14 min

Out

A. GillDay-To-DayJ. ChampagnieOutA. SarrDay-To-Day

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

DEN114.0 #15

WSH110.5 #20

Points per possession

DEN1.13 #9

WSH1.08 #19

Pace (possessions)

DEN102.1 #21

WSH102.3 #20

Shooting

Effective FG%

DEN54.7 #11

WSH52.1 #20

3-point %

DEN37.4 #7

WSH29.3 #29

3-point attempt rate

DEN40.9 #22

WSH37.6 #28

Free throw rate

DEN31.3 #11

WSH34.2 #5

Possessions

Turnover rate

DEN16.4 #21

WSH14.6 #8

Offensive rebound rate

DEN27.5 #15

WSH20.9 #29

Assists per game

DEN26.8 #14

WSH24.5 #24

Defense

Points allowed

DEN115.2 #18

WSH109.7 #11

Points allowed per possession

DEN1.12 #20

WSH1.07 #11

Opponent effective FG%

DEN54.2 #20

WSH48.1 #1

Opponent 3-point %

DEN35.0 #15

WSH28.7 #1

Turnovers forced

DEN15.9 #11

WSH13.3 #27

Defensive rebound rate

DEN70.5 #22

WSH68.0 #28

Steals per game

DEN10.2 #5

WSH7.2 #24

Blocks per game

DEN4.4 #18

WSH5.3 #9

DEN		WSH
Scoring
114.0 #15	Points per game	110.5 #20
1.13 #9	Points per possession	1.08 #19
102.1 #21	Pace (possessions)	102.3 #20
Shooting
54.7 #11	Effective FG%	52.1 #20
37.4 #7	3-point %	29.3 #29
40.9 #22	3-point attempt rate	37.6 #28
31.3 #11	Free throw rate	34.2 #5
Possessions
16.4 #21	Turnover rate	14.6 #8
27.5 #15	Offensive rebound rate	20.9 #29
26.8 #14	Assists per game	24.5 #24
Defense
115.2 #18	Points allowed	109.7 #11
1.12 #20	Points allowed per possession	1.07 #11
54.2 #20	Opponent effective FG%	48.1 #1
35.0 #15	Opponent 3-point %	28.7 #1
15.9 #11	Turnovers forced	13.3 #27
70.5 #22	Defensive rebound rate	68.0 #28
10.2 #5	Steals per game	7.2 #24
4.4 #18	Blocks per game	5.3 #9

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Nuggets

3-2 overall · 3-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Suns127–120
W@ Pelicans104–91
Lvs Warriors114–134
Wvs Pelicans141–135
L@ Thunder84–96

A week or more of rest.

Wizards

3-3 overall · 3-3 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Hornets95–79
L@ Cavaliers111–121
L@ Hornets103–110
W@ Bulls124–120
Lvs Raptors102–112

A week or more of rest.

Nuggets @ Wizards

What could decide it: DEN has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Nuggets

Wizards

Nuggets has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Nuggets

Wizards