San Antonio Spurs at Boston Celtics: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Mar 24, 7:30 PM ETTD Garden · at Celtics

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Spurs and Celtics
SA	This season	BOS
4-2	Record	5-1
2-4	ATS	3-3
2-4	O/U	2-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects BOS 111–111 · win probability BOS 52%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 222.0

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: BOS has more of the edges

SA 2, BOS 3 · 2026-27 so far

Context

Schedule so far

SA has played the 15th-hardest schedule, BOS the 25th. A record against a soft schedule means less

BOSSmall

Three-pointers

SA hits 34.9% and allows 37.3%; BOS hits 35.5% and allows 33.8%. Threes are 39.0% and 45.9% of their shots

SASmall

BOS offense vs SA defense

Offense 15th of 30 against a defense 7th, on the model’s ratings

SASmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: SA 27.2%, BOS 28.3%. Defensive: SA 75.8%, BOS 68.4%

BOSSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: SA 53.3 and allows 52.1; BOS 55.0 and allows 51.3

BOSSmall

Home court

BOS at home. This season: BOS 4-0 at home, SA 2-0 away

Even

Recent form

Last 5: SA 2-3 ATS, margin +11.0; BOS 3-2 ATS, margin +13.0

Context

Tempo

About 104 possessions: SA plays 104.3 a game (11th fastest), BOS 103.0 (16th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: SA 24.5, BOS 32.3. Allowed: SA 21.7, BOS 31.7

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: SA 13.1%, BOS 14.9%. Forced: SA 15.7%, BOS 17.8%

Even

SA offense vs BOS defense

Offense 5th of 30 against a defense 5th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: SA 100%, BOS 100%. Transfers in: SA 0, BOS 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SA LWWLL	2-4	33%	1-1	—
BOS WWLLW	3-3	50%	2-2	—

Venue/role: SA away; BOS home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
SA UUOUO	2-4	33%	4-2
BOS UUOUU	2-4	33%	5-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SAlast 6	4-2 67%	2-4 33%	2-4 33%
BOSlast 6	5-1 83%	3-3 50%	2-4 33%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Spurs

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 25	@ IND	W134–119LO
Mar 27	@ DET	W121–106WU
Mar 29	vs PHX	W101–100LU

Celtics

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 27	@ MIA	W147–129WO
Mar 28	@ NO	W144–118WO
Mar 30	@ IND	W119–104WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

SA 4–6 BOSBOS leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · SA has won the last 2 meetings · SA 6-4 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 10, 2025-26	BOS 116 @ SA 125	SA -3.5	SA W
Jan 10, 2025-26	SA 100 @ BOS 95	BOS +1.5	SA W
Mar 29, 2024-25	BOS 121 @ SA 111	SA +12.5	SA W
Feb 12, 2024-25	SA 103 @ BOS 116	BOS -7.5	BOS W
Jan 17, 2023-24	SA 98 @ BOS 117	BOS -14.5	BOS W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Spurs

6 games played

Straight up

4-2

67% wins

Against the spread

2-4

33% covers · avg −3.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg −2.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-267%

L L W W W W

4 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-433%

L L W W L L

2 straight misses ATS2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-433%

U U U O U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 20	vsOKC	L 104-116	+1.5	L −10.5	229.5	U 220
Oct 23	vsHOU	L 110-114	-4.5	L −8.5	224.5	U 224
Oct 24	@DAL	W 122-106	-14.5	W +1.5	229.5	U 228
Oct 27	vsSAC	W 130-103	-19.5	W +7.5	232.5	O 233
Oct 28	@UTAH	W 117-111	-13.5	L −7.5	232.5	U 228
Oct 31	vsMIN	W 121-111	-12.5	L −2.5	230.5	O 232

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

OKC

L 104-116

−10.5

HOU

L 110-114

−8.5

DAL

W 122-106

+1.5

SAC

W 130-103

+7.5

UTAH

W 117-111

−7.5

MIN

W 121-111

−2.5

covered 2didn’t cover 4avg −3.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

OKC

L 104-116

−9.5

HOU

L 110-114

−0.5

DAL

W 122-106

−1.5

SAC

W 130-103

+0.5

UTAH

W 117-111

−4.5

MIN

W 121-111

+1.5

over 2under 4avg −2.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Celtics

6 games played

Straight up

5-1

83% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg +0.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg +1.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-183%

L W W W W W

5 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

L W W L L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-433%

O U U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 20	@DET	L 113-121	-1.5	L −9.5	220.5	O 234
Oct 23	vsNY	W 107-103	-2.5	W +1.5	220.5	U 210
Oct 26	vsCHI	W 134-99	-14.5	W +20.5	233.5	U 233
Oct 27	vsBKN	W 125-124	-13.5	L −12.5	223.5	O 249
Oct 30	vsCHI	W 125-111	-14.5	L −0.5	236.5	U 236
Nov 1	@ORL	W 108-97	-6.5	W +4.5	221.5	U 205

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

DET

L 113-121

−9.5

W 107-103

+1.5

CHI

W 134-99

+20.5

BKN

W 125-124

−12.5

CHI

W 125-111

−0.5

ORL

W 108-97

+4.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg +0.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

DET

L 113-121

+13.5

W 107-103

−10.5

CHI

W 134-99

−0.5

BKN

W 125-124

+25.5

CHI

W 125-111

−0.5

ORL

W 108-97

−16.5

over 2under 4avg +1.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: Spurs 1, Celtics 1, even 3

SpursBetterCeltics

G D. Harper18.5 pts · 5.5 reb · 4.8 ast Score 98

Even

G D. White11.8 pts · 3.3 reb · 5.2 ast Score 87

G D. Vassell12 pts · 4.2 reb · 3.5 ast Score 53

BOSSmall

G J. Walsh4.3 pts · 3.8 reb · 1 ast Score 74

G D. Fox16.5 pts · 4.8 reb · 7 ast Score 84

Even

F J. Tatum28.3 pts · 6 reb · 7.7 ast Score 86

G S. Castle14.5 pts · 5.8 reb · 5.2 ast Score 69

Even

F P. George20.7 pts · 6 reb · 5 ast Score 66

F V. Wembanyama28 pts · 10.7 reb · 3 ast Score 98

SABig

C N. Queta8.8 pts · 5.3 reb · 1.2 ast Score 62

SpursBetterCeltics

SA offense5th of 30 · +2.9

Even

BOS defense5th of 30 · +4.6

SA defense7th of 30 · +3.7

SASmall

BOS offense15th of 30 · +0.8

Backcourt+42.2 · 4 players

SABig

Backcourt+15.6 · 2 players

Frontcourt+17.3 · 1 player

BOSBig

Frontcourt+21.5 · 3 players

Bench+19.9 · 5 players

BOSBig

Bench+32.1 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestSA betterBOS betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Spurs

Guards

D. Harper34 minD. Vassell33 minD. Fox32 minS. Castle29 minJ. McLaughlin6 minJ. Gillespie2 min

Forwards

V. Wembanyama33 minJ. Champagnie28 minK. Johnson22 minC. Bryant9 minH. Barnes8 minD. Jones Garcia6 min

Centers

L. Kornet15 minT. Reed4 min

Celtics

Guards

D. White30 minJ. Walsh17 minP. Pritchard28 minB. Scheierman19 minM. Conley18 minH. Gonzalez12 min

Forwards

J. Tatum36 minP. George31 minS. Hauser20 minA. Williams7 minC. Cenac4 min

Centers

N. Queta21 minL. Garza11 min

Out

M. RobinsonDay-To-Day

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

SA117.3 #12

BOS118.7 #8

Points per possession

SA1.12 #10

BOS1.15 #6

Pace (possessions)

SA104.3 #11

BOS103.0 #16

Shooting

Effective FG%

SA53.3 #16

BOS55.0 #10

3-point %

SA34.9 #17

BOS35.5 #10

3-point attempt rate

SA39.0 #24

BOS45.9 #7

Free throw rate

SA24.5 #24

BOS32.3 #7

Possessions

Turnover rate

SA13.1 #2

BOS14.9 #11

Offensive rebound rate

SA27.2 #16

BOS28.3 #12

Assists per game

SA27.5 #9

BOS28.0 #6

Defense

Points allowed

SA110.2 #12

BOS109.2 #9

Points allowed per possession

SA1.06 #6

BOS1.06 #9

Opponent effective FG%

SA52.1 #11

BOS51.3 #7

Opponent 3-point %

SA37.3 #23

BOS33.8 #12

Turnovers forced

SA15.7 #14

BOS17.8 #3

Defensive rebound rate

SA75.8 #7

BOS68.4 #27

Steals per game

SA9.2 #10

BOS9.2 #9

Blocks per game

SA7.0 #1

BOS4.0 #25

SA		BOS
Scoring
117.3 #12	Points per game	118.7 #8
1.12 #10	Points per possession	1.15 #6
104.3 #11	Pace (possessions)	103.0 #16
Shooting
53.3 #16	Effective FG%	55.0 #10
34.9 #17	3-point %	35.5 #10
39.0 #24	3-point attempt rate	45.9 #7
24.5 #24	Free throw rate	32.3 #7
Possessions
13.1 #2	Turnover rate	14.9 #11
27.2 #16	Offensive rebound rate	28.3 #12
27.5 #9	Assists per game	28.0 #6
Defense
110.2 #12	Points allowed	109.2 #9
1.06 #6	Points allowed per possession	1.06 #9
52.1 #11	Opponent effective FG%	51.3 #7
37.3 #23	Opponent 3-point %	33.8 #12
15.7 #14	Turnovers forced	17.8 #3
75.8 #7	Defensive rebound rate	68.4 #27
9.2 #10	Steals per game	9.2 #9
7.0 #1	Blocks per game	4.0 #25

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Spurs

4-2 overall · 4-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Timberwolves121–111
W@ Jazz117–111
Wvs Kings130–103
W@ Mavericks122–106
Lvs Rockets110–114

A week or more of rest.

Celtics

5-1 overall · 5-1 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Magic108–97
Wvs Bulls125–111
Wvs Nets125–124
Wvs Bulls134–99
Wvs Knicks107–103

A week or more of rest.

Spurs @ Celtics

What could decide it: BOS has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Spurs

Celtics

The starting fives are even

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Spurs

Celtics