Houston Rockets at New York Knicks: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Mar 24, 7:30 PM ETMadison Square Garden · at Knicks

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Rockets and Knicks
HOU	This season	NY
6-1	Record	2-4
6-1	ATS	1-5
5-2	O/U	1-5

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects HOU 110–109 · win probability HOU 52%

Pick this game

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 218.6

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: HOU has more of the edges

HOU 6, NY 2 · 2026-27 so far

HOUBig

NY offense vs HOU defense

Offense 23rd of 30 against a defense 4th, on the model’s ratings

HOUBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: HOU 56.6 and allows 52.1; NY 49.5 and allows 53.1

HOUBig

Three-pointers

HOU hits 39.0% and allows 30.2%; NY hits 35.2% and allows 35.5%. Threes are 38.1% and 43.2% of their shots

HOUBig

Recent form

Last 5: HOU 4-1 ATS, margin +13.0; NY 1-4 ATS, margin +0.4

HOUSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: HOU 31.9, NY 24.5. Allowed: HOU 24.7, NY 25.9

HOUSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: HOU 15.1%, NY 15.2%. Forced: HOU 15.7%, NY 13.2%

NYSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: HOU 32.4%, NY 30.3%. Defensive: HOU 73.2%, NY 78.7%

NYSmall

Home court

NY at home. This season: NY 1-2 at home, HOU 3-1 away

Even

HOU offense vs NY defense

Offense 6th of 30 against a defense 3rd, on the model’s ratings

Context

Tempo

About 101 possessions: HOU plays 101.6 a game (24th fastest), NY 101.0 (28th). Faster games mean more points

Context

Schedule so far

HOU has played the 12th-hardest schedule, NY the 13th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: HOU 100%, NY 100%. Transfers in: HOU 0, NY 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
HOU WWWLW	6-1	86%	3-1	—
NY LLWLL	1-5	17%	1-2	—

Venue/role: HOU away; NY home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
HOU OOOOU	5-2	71%	6-1
NY UUUOU	1-5	17%	2-4

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
HOUlast 7	6-1 86%	6-1 86%	5-2 71%
NYlast 6	2-4 33%	1-5 17%	1-5 17%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Rockets

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 25	@ DET	W111–104WU
Mar 28	vs LAL	L78–98LU
Mar 30	@ POR	W106–99WU

Knicks

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 26	@ CHA	L96–110WU
Mar 28	@ ORL	L102–111LU
Mar 30	@ ORL	L102–111LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

HOU 3–7 NYNY leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · HOU 6-4 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 31, 2025-26	NY 94 @ HOU 111	HOU +1.5	HOU W
Feb 21, 2025-26	HOU 106 @ NY 108	NY -3.5	HOU W
Feb 3, 2024-25	HOU 118 @ NY 124	NY -7.5	HOU W
Nov 4, 2024-25	NY 97 @ HOU 109	HOU +2.5	HOU W
Feb 12, 2023-24	NY 103 @ HOU 105	HOU -1.5	HOU W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Rockets

7 games played

Straight up

6-1

86% wins

Against the spread

6-1

86% covers · avg +8.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-2

71% overs · avg +3.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

6-186%

W W W W W L W

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

6-186%

W W W W W L W

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

5-271%

O U O O O O U

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsDAL	W 128-110	-9.5	W +8.5	230.5	O 238
Oct 23	@SA	W 114-110	+4.5	W +8.5	224.5	U 224
Oct 24	@ATL	W 121-114	-1.5	W +5.5	227.5	O 235
Oct 26	vsATL	W 120-110	-4.5	W +5.5	228.5	O 230
Oct 28	@MIL	W 132-100	-8.5	W +23.5	226.5	O 232
Oct 30	@DAL	L 111-116	-5.5	L −10.5	223.5	O 227
Oct 31	vsOKC	W 119-98	-2.5	W +18.5	219.5	U 217

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

DAL

W 128-110

+8.5

W 114-110

+8.5

ATL

W 121-114

+5.5

ATL

W 120-110

+5.5

MIL

W 132-100

+23.5

DAL

L 111-116

−10.5

OKC

W 119-98

+18.5

covered 6didn’t cover 1avg +8.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

DAL

W 128-110

+7.5

W 114-110

−0.5

ATL

W 121-114

+7.5

ATL

W 120-110

+1.5

MIL

W 132-100

+5.5

DAL

L 111-116

+3.5

OKC

W 119-98

−2.5

over 5under 2avg +3.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Knicks

6 games played

Straight up

2-4

33% wins

Against the spread

1-5

17% covers · avg −3.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-5

17% overs · avg −11.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-433%

L L L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

1-517%

L L L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

1-517%

U U U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 20	vsPHI	L 100-106	-4.5	L −10.5	231.5	U 206
Oct 23	@BOS	L 103-107	+2.5	L −1.5	220.5	U 210
Oct 25	vsORL	L 102-111	-6.5	L −15.5	224.5	U 213
Oct 27	vsDET	W 111-97	-4.5	W +9.5	220.5	U 208
Oct 28	@CHI	W 133-127	-7.5	L −1.5	233.5	O 260
Oct 30	@PHI	L 93-98	+2.5	L −2.5	224.5	U 191

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

PHI

L 100-106

−10.5

BOS

L 103-107

−1.5

ORL

L 102-111

−15.5

DET

W 111-97

+9.5

CHI

W 133-127

−1.5

PHI

L 93-98

−2.5

covered 1didn’t cover 5avg −3.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

PHI

L 100-106

−25.5

BOS

L 103-107

−10.5

ORL

L 102-111

−11.5

DET

W 111-97

−12.5

CHI

W 133-127

+26.5

PHI

L 93-98

−33.5

over 1under 5avg −11.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Knicks has the better starters

Position by position: Rockets 0, Knicks 1, even 4

RocketsBetterKnicks

G A. Thompson16.3 pts · 6.6 reb · 3.7 ast Score 60

NYSmall

G J. Brunson25.5 pts · 2.8 reb · 5.2 ast Score 86

G F. VanVleet13 pts · 4 reb · 6.4 ast Score 94

Even

G J. Hart8.7 pts · 7.5 reb · 3.3 ast Score 91

F J. Smith19 pts · 5.9 reb · 2.7 ast Score 79

Even

G M. Bridges6.2 pts · 2.8 reb · 2 ast Score 75

F K. Durant22 pts · 5.6 reb · 3.3 ast Score 82

Even

F O. Anunoby16.2 pts · 5.8 reb · 2.7 ast Score 73

C A. Sengun22.8 pts · 9 reb · 7.4 ast Score 84

Even

C K. Towns21.8 pts · 13.5 reb · 3.2 ast Score 80

RocketsBetterKnicks

HOU offense6th of 30 · +2.9

Even

NY defense3rd of 30 · +5.2

HOU defense4th of 30 · +5.2

HOUBig

NY offense23rd of 30 · -1.8

Backcourt+19.1 · 2 players

NYBig

Backcourt+35.0 · 3 players

Frontcourt+30.0 · 3 players

HOUBig

Frontcourt+17.7 · 2 players

Bench+16.2 · 5 players

HOUBig

Bench+5.0 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestHOU betterNY betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Rockets

Guards

A. Thompson34 minF. VanVleet31 minM. Smart25 minB. Bogdanovic15 minS. Pedulla4 minB. Thornton3 min

Forwards

J. Smith34 minK. Durant34 minT. Eason24 minJ. Tate9 minI. Crawford7 min

Centers

A. Sengun34 minO. Tshiebwe17 min

Out

S. AdamsOutC. CapelaDay-To-DayR. SheppardDay-To-Day

Knicks

Guards

J. Brunson35 minJ. Hart33 minM. Bridges28 minL. Shamet24 minM. McBride19 minT. Kolek14 min

Forwards

O. Anunoby34 minD. Knecht10 minM. Diawara9 minP. Dadiet5 minT. NickelNew

Centers

K. Towns32 minJ. Wiseman15 minA. Drummond13 min

Out

J. AlvaradoOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

HOU120.7 #3

NY107.0 #27

Points per possession

HOU1.20 #1

NY1.05 #24

Pace (possessions)

HOU101.6 #24

NY101.0 #28

Shooting

Effective FG%

HOU56.6 #3

NY49.5 #27

3-point %

HOU39.0 #3

NY35.2 #13

3-point attempt rate

HOU38.1 #26

NY43.2 #14

Free throw rate

HOU31.9 #8

NY24.5 #23

Possessions

Turnover rate

HOU15.1 #13

NY15.2 #14

Offensive rebound rate

HOU32.4 #3

NY30.3 #6

Assists per game

HOU28.1 #5

NY26.2 #18

Defense

Points allowed

HOU108.3 #7

NY107.7 #6

Points allowed per possession

HOU1.06 #8

NY1.07 #12

Opponent effective FG%

HOU52.1 #10

NY53.1 #14

Opponent 3-point %

HOU30.2 #4

NY35.5 #18

Turnovers forced

HOU15.7 #16

NY13.2 #29

Defensive rebound rate

HOU73.2 #14

NY78.7 #1

Steals per game

HOU9.7 #6

NY7.3 #23

Blocks per game

HOU5.9 #8

NY4.0 #28

HOU		NY
Scoring
120.7 #3	Points per game	107.0 #27
1.20 #1	Points per possession	1.05 #24
101.6 #24	Pace (possessions)	101.0 #28
Shooting
56.6 #3	Effective FG%	49.5 #27
39.0 #3	3-point %	35.2 #13
38.1 #26	3-point attempt rate	43.2 #14
31.9 #8	Free throw rate	24.5 #23
Possessions
15.1 #13	Turnover rate	15.2 #14
32.4 #3	Offensive rebound rate	30.3 #6
28.1 #5	Assists per game	26.2 #18
Defense
108.3 #7	Points allowed	107.7 #6
1.06 #8	Points allowed per possession	1.07 #12
52.1 #10	Opponent effective FG%	53.1 #14
30.2 #4	Opponent 3-point %	35.5 #18
15.7 #16	Turnovers forced	13.2 #29
73.2 #14	Defensive rebound rate	78.7 #1
9.7 #6	Steals per game	7.3 #23
5.9 #8	Blocks per game	4.0 #28

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Rockets

6-1 overall · 3-1 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Thunder119–98
L@ Mavericks111–116
W@ Bucks132–100
Wvs Hawks120–110
W@ Hawks121–114

A week or more of rest.

Knicks

2-4 overall · 2-4 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ 76ers93–98
W@ Bulls133–127
Wvs Pistons111–97
Lvs Magic102–111
L@ Celtics103–107

A week or more of rest.

Rockets @ Knicks

What could decide it: HOU has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Rockets

Knicks

Knicks has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Rockets

Knicks