Orlando Magic at Chicago Bulls: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Mar 24, 8:00 PM ETUnited Center · at Bulls · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Magic and Bulls
ORL	This season	CHI
2-4	Record	1-5
2-4	ATS	3-3
3-3	O/U	2-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects ORL 121–115 · win probability ORL 66%

Pick this game

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 236.2

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it

ORL 3, CHI 3 · 2026-27 so far

ORLBig

Three-pointers

ORL hits 35.4% and allows 34.6%; CHI hits 28.1% and allows 39.3%. Threes are 46.5% and 47.9% of their shots

ORLBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: ORL 53.4 and allows 53.0; CHI 48.2 and allows 56.0

Context

Schedule so far

ORL has played the 1st-hardest schedule, CHI the 14th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Context

Tempo

About 106 possessions: ORL plays 101.9 a game (22nd fastest), CHI 109.8 (1st). Faster games mean more points

CHIBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: ORL 23.4%, CHI 29.2%. Defensive: ORL 68.9%, CHI 69.8%

ORLBig

ORL offense vs CHI defense

Offense 21st of 30 against a defense 30th, on the model’s ratings

CHISmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: ORL 17.0%, CHI 16.2%. Forced: ORL 13.6%, CHI 14.7%

CHISmall

Home court

CHI at home. This season: CHI 0-2 at home, ORL 2-1 away

Even

CHI offense vs ORL defense

Offense 12th of 30 against a defense 15th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Recent form

Last 5: ORL 2-3 ATS, margin -9.4; CHI 3-2 ATS, margin -10.4

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: ORL 31.7, CHI 38.3. Allowed: ORL 29.8, CHI 33.5

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: ORL 100%, CHI 100%. Transfers in: ORL 0, CHI 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ORL LWLWL	2-4	33%	2-1	—
CHI WLLWW	3-3	50%	1-1	—

Venue/role: ORL away; CHI home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
ORL UUOOU	3-3	50%	2-4
CHI OUUOU	2-4	33%	1-5

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ORLlast 6	2-4 33%	2-4 33%	3-3 50%
CHIlast 6	1-5 17%	3-3 50%	2-4 33%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Magic

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 26	@ MIN	L93–115LU
Mar 28	vs NY	W111–102WU
Mar 30	vs NY	W111–102WU

Bulls

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 25	@ MEM	L124–125LO
Mar 27	vs LAC	L108–119WU
Mar 29	vs IND	L126–145LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 18 since 2021-22

ORL 10–8 CHIORL leads · 18 games since 2021-22 · ORL 10-8 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Apr 10, 2025-26	ORL 127 @ CHI 103	CHI +16.5	ORL W
Jan 2, 2025-26	ORL 114 @ CHI 121	CHI +5.5	CHI W
Dec 1, 2025-26	CHI 120 @ ORL 125	ORL -9.5	CHI W
Oct 25, 2025-26	CHI 110 @ ORL 98	ORL -6.5	CHI W
Mar 6, 2024-25	CHI 125 @ ORL 123	ORL -8.5	CHI W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Magic

6 games played

Straight up

2-4

33% wins

Against the spread

2-4

33% covers · avg −5.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg −3.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-433%

L L W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

2-433%

L L W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-350%

O U U O O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsATL	L 125-132	-2.5	L −9.5	233.5	O 257
Oct 23	vsMIN	L 93-115	-1.5	L −23.5	234.5	U 208
Oct 25	@NY	W 111-102	+6.5	W +15.5	224.5	U 213
Oct 28	@TOR	L 99-129	+5.5	L −24.5	224.5	O 228
Oct 30	@TOR	W 121-114	+5.5	W +12.5	226.5	O 235
Nov 1	vsBOS	L 97-108	+6.5	L −4.5	221.5	U 205

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

ATL

L 125-132

−9.5

MIN

L 93-115

−23.5

W 111-102

+15.5

TOR

L 99-129

−24.5

TOR

W 121-114

+12.5

BOS

L 97-108

−4.5

covered 2didn’t cover 4avg −5.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

ATL

L 125-132

+23.5

MIN

L 93-115

−26.5

W 111-102

−11.5

TOR

L 99-129

+3.5

TOR

W 121-114

+8.5

BOS

L 97-108

−16.5

over 3under 3avg −3.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Bulls

6 games played

Straight up

1-5

17% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg −8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg +5 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-517%

L W L L L L

4 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

L W L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-433%

U O U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@TOR	L 92-135	+10.5	L −32.5	237.5	U 227
Oct 23	@MIL	W 132-125	+1.5	W +8.5	241.5	O 257
Oct 24	vsWSH	L 120-124	-1.5	L −5.5	244.5	U 244
Oct 26	@BOS	L 99-134	+14.5	L −20.5	233.5	U 233
Oct 28	vsNY	L 127-133	+7.5	W +1.5	233.5	O 260
Oct 30	@BOS	L 111-125	+14.5	W +0.5	236.5	U 236

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

TOR

L 92-135

−32.5

MIL

W 132-125

+8.5

WSH

L 120-124

−5.5

BOS

L 99-134

−20.5

L 127-133

+1.5

BOS

L 111-125

+0.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg −8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

TOR

L 92-135

−10.5

MIL

W 132-125

+15.5

WSH

L 120-124

−0.5

BOS

L 99-134

−0.5

L 127-133

+26.5

BOS

L 111-125

−0.5

over 2under 4avg +5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Magic has the better starters

Position by position: Magic 2, Bulls 1, even 2

MagicBetterBulls

G D. Bane17.5 pts · 3.7 reb · 2.5 ast Score 62

Even

G N. Powell20.7 pts · 2.7 reb · 2 ast Score 71

G J. Richardson5.3 pts · 2 reb · 2 ast Score 3

CHISmall

G J. Giddey8.5 pts · 5.3 reb · 7.5 ast Score 29

F F. Wagner19.7 pts · 6.7 reb · 7.8 ast Score 90

ORLBig

F C. Wilson21.2 pts · 6.7 reb · 2.5 ast Score 6

F T. da Silva14.8 pts · 3.3 reb · 1.5 ast Score 35

ORLSmall

F M. Buzelis14.5 pts · 4.5 reb · 1.8 ast Score 4

C W. Carter13.5 pts · 8.8 reb · 1.2 ast Score 28

Even

F P. Williams7 pts · 3 reb · 1.5 ast Score 19

MagicBetterBulls

ORL offense21st of 30 · -1.5

ORLSmall

CHI defense30th of 30 · -9.4

ORL defense15th of 30 · -0.1

Even

CHI offense12th of 30 · +1.2

Backcourt-2.5 · 2 players

CHIBig

Backcourt+5.1 · 2 players

Frontcourt+14.7 · 3 players

ORLBig

Frontcourt-24.0 · 3 players

Bench-1.8 · 5 players

ORLBig

Bench-6.9 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestORL betterCHI betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Magic

Guards

D. Bane35 minJ. Richardson20 minJ. Carter18 minA. Morales6 min

Forwards

F. Wagner35 minT. da Silva29 minJ. Cain15 min

Centers

W. Carter32 minG. Bitadze9 minN. Vucevic9 minC. Castleton5 min

Out

J. SuggsOutP. BancheroOutA. BlackOut

Bulls

Guards

N. Powell30 minJ. Giddey27 minT. Jones18 minB. Hield14 minJ. Hawkins14 minD. Swain12 min

Forwards

C. Wilson34 minM. Buzelis25 minP. Williams21 minL. Miller19 minZ. Collins18 minI. Okoro18 min

Out

J. SmithDay-To-DayT. AwakaDay-To-Day

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

ORL107.7 #26

CHI113.5 #16

Points per possession

ORL1.07 #21

CHI1.04 #26

Pace (possessions)

ORL101.9 #22

CHI109.8 #1

Shooting

Effective FG%

ORL53.4 #15

CHI48.2 #30

3-point %

ORL35.4 #11

CHI28.1 #30

3-point attempt rate

ORL46.5 #6

CHI47.9 #4

Free throw rate

ORL31.7 #9

CHI38.3 #1

Possessions

Turnover rate

ORL17.0 #24

CHI16.2 #20

Offensive rebound rate

ORL23.4 #26

CHI29.2 #9

Assists per game

ORL26.3 #16

CHI24.3 #25

Defense

Points allowed

ORL116.7 #22

CHI129.3 #30

Points allowed per possession

ORL1.13 #24

CHI1.17 #27

Opponent effective FG%

ORL53.0 #13

CHI56.0 #26

Opponent 3-point %

ORL34.6 #13

CHI39.3 #28

Turnovers forced

ORL13.6 #26

CHI14.7 #21

Defensive rebound rate

ORL68.9 #26

CHI69.8 #24

Steals per game

ORL7.0 #26

CHI8.7 #17

Blocks per game

ORL4.2 #23

CHI5.0 #12

ORL		CHI
Scoring
107.7 #26	Points per game	113.5 #16
1.07 #21	Points per possession	1.04 #26
101.9 #22	Pace (possessions)	109.8 #1
Shooting
53.4 #15	Effective FG%	48.2 #30
35.4 #11	3-point %	28.1 #30
46.5 #6	3-point attempt rate	47.9 #4
31.7 #9	Free throw rate	38.3 #1
Possessions
17.0 #24	Turnover rate	16.2 #20
23.4 #26	Offensive rebound rate	29.2 #9
26.3 #16	Assists per game	24.3 #25
Defense
116.7 #22	Points allowed	129.3 #30
1.13 #24	Points allowed per possession	1.17 #27
53.0 #13	Opponent effective FG%	56.0 #26
34.6 #13	Opponent 3-point %	39.3 #28
13.6 #26	Turnovers forced	14.7 #21
68.9 #26	Defensive rebound rate	69.8 #24
7.0 #26	Steals per game	8.7 #17
4.2 #23	Blocks per game	5.0 #12

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Magic

2-4 overall · 2-3 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs Celtics97–108
W@ Raptors121–114
L@ Raptors99–129
W@ Knicks111–102
Lvs Timberwolves93–115

A week or more of rest.

Bulls

1-5 overall · 1-5 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Celtics111–125
Lvs Knicks127–133
L@ Celtics99–134
Lvs Wizards120–124
W@ Bucks132–125

A week or more of rest.

Magic @ Bulls

What could decide it

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Magic

Bulls

Magic has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Magic

Bulls