Orlando Magic at Minnesota Timberwolves: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Mar 26, 8:00 PM ETTarget Center · at Timberwolves

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Magic and Timberwolves
ORL	This season	MIN
2-4	Record	4-3
2-4	ATS	6-1
3-3	O/U	4-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects MIN 120–108 · win probability MIN 79%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 228.0

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: MIN has more of the edges

ORL 1, MIN 8 · 2026-27 so far

MINBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: ORL 23.4%, MIN 30.0%. Defensive: ORL 68.9%, MIN 75.4%

MINBig

ORL offense vs MIN defense

Offense 21st of 30 against a defense 8th, on the model’s ratings

MINBig

MIN offense vs ORL defense

Offense 3rd of 30 against a defense 15th, on the model’s ratings

MINBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: ORL 17.0%, MIN 15.1%. Forced: ORL 13.6%, MIN 15.6%

MINSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: ORL 53.4 and allows 53.0; MIN 55.8 and allows 50.5

Context

Tempo

About 104 possessions: ORL plays 101.9 a game (22nd fastest), MIN 105.4 (9th). Faster games mean more points

MINSmall

Three-pointers

ORL hits 35.4% and allows 34.6%; MIN hits 37.6% and allows 31.2%. Threes are 46.5% and 42.8% of their shots

Context

Schedule so far

ORL has played the 1st-hardest schedule, MIN the 7th. A record against a soft schedule means less

MINSmall

Recent form

Last 5: ORL 2-3 ATS, margin -9.4; MIN 4-1 ATS, margin +6.4

ORLSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: ORL 31.7, MIN 26.1. Allowed: ORL 29.8, MIN 28.9

MINSmall

Home court

MIN at home. This season: MIN 2-1 at home, ORL 2-1 away

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: ORL 100%, MIN 100%. Transfers in: ORL 0, MIN 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ORL LWLWL	2-4	33%	2-1	—
MIN WWLWW	6-1	86%	2-1	—

Venue/role: ORL away; MIN home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
ORL UUOOU	3-3	50%	2-4
MIN UOOOO	4-3	57%	4-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ORLlast 6	2-4 33%	2-4 33%	3-3 50%
MINlast 7	4-3 57%	6-1 86%	4-3 57%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Magic

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 28	vs NY	W111–102WU
Mar 30	vs NY	W111–102WU
Apr 1	@ IND	L126–128LO

Timberwolves

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 28	vs OKC	L103–116LU
Mar 29	@ ATL	W138–116WO
Mar 31	vs SAC	W117–103WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 11 since 2021-22

ORL 6–5 MINORL leads · 11 games since 2021-22 · ORL 7-4 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Oct 23, 2026-27	MIN 115 @ ORL 93	ORL -1.5	MIN W
Apr 8, 2025-26	MIN 120 @ ORL 132	ORL -11.5	ORL W
Mar 7, 2025-26	ORL 119 @ MIN 92	MIN -6.5	ORL W
Mar 14, 2024-25	ORL 111 @ MIN 118	MIN -10.5	ORL W
Jan 9, 2024-25	MIN 104 @ ORL 89	ORL +5.5	MIN W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Magic

6 games played

Straight up

2-4

33% wins

Against the spread

2-4

33% covers · avg −5.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg −3.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-433%

L L W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

2-433%

L L W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-350%

O U U O O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsATL	L 125-132	-2.5	L −9.5	233.5	O 257
Oct 23	vsMIN	L 93-115	-1.5	L −23.5	234.5	U 208
Oct 25	@NY	W 111-102	+6.5	W +15.5	224.5	U 213
Oct 28	@TOR	L 99-129	+5.5	L −24.5	224.5	O 228
Oct 30	@TOR	W 121-114	+5.5	W +12.5	226.5	O 235
Nov 1	vsBOS	L 97-108	+6.5	L −4.5	221.5	U 205

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

ATL

L 125-132

−9.5

MIN

L 93-115

−23.5

W 111-102

+15.5

TOR

L 99-129

−24.5

TOR

W 121-114

+12.5

BOS

L 97-108

−4.5

covered 2didn’t cover 4avg −5.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

ATL

L 125-132

+23.5

MIN

L 93-115

−26.5

W 111-102

−11.5

TOR

L 99-129

+3.5

TOR

W 121-114

+8.5

BOS

L 97-108

−16.5

over 3under 3avg −3.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Timberwolves

7 games played

Straight up

4-3

57% wins

Against the spread

6-1

86% covers · avg +12.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-3

57% overs · avg −2.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-357%

W W W L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

6-186%

W W W W L W W

2 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

4-357%

U U U O O O O

4 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@MIA	W 131-106	+1.5	W +26.5	240.5	U 237
Oct 23	@ORL	W 115-93	+1.5	W +23.5	234.5	U 208
Oct 25	vsTOR	W 117-94	-3.5	W +19.5	228.5	U 211
Oct 26	@CLE	L 125-127	+3.5	W +1.5	234.5	O 252
Oct 28	vsGS	L 114-119	-3.5	L −8.5	227.5	O 233
Oct 30	vsLAC	W 127-101	-6.5	W +19.5	222.5	O 228
Oct 31	@SA	L 111-121	+12.5	W +2.5	230.5	O 232

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MIA

W 131-106

+26.5

ORL

W 115-93

+23.5

TOR

W 117-94

+19.5

CLE

L 125-127

+1.5

L 114-119

−8.5

LAC

W 127-101

+19.5

L 111-121

+2.5

covered 6didn’t cover 1avg +12.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MIA

W 131-106

−3.5

ORL

W 115-93

−26.5

TOR

W 117-94

−17.5

CLE

L 125-127

+17.5

L 114-119

+5.5

LAC

W 127-101

+5.5

L 111-121

+1.5

over 4under 3avg −2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Timberwolves has the better starters

Position by position: Magic 1, Timberwolves 3, even 1

MagicBetterTimberwolves

G D. Bane17.5 pts · 3.7 reb · 2.5 ast Score 62

ORLSmall

G A. Dosunmu15.3 pts · 5 reb · 3.4 ast Score 42

G J. Richardson5.3 pts · 2 reb · 2 ast Score 3

MINBig

G L. Ball14.4 pts · 3.4 reb · 6.3 ast Score 91

F F. Wagner19.7 pts · 6.7 reb · 7.8 ast Score 90

Even

F J. McDaniels17.3 pts · 6 reb · 3.7 ast Score 96

F T. da Silva14.8 pts · 3.3 reb · 1.5 ast Score 35

MINBig

F J. Kuminga12.9 pts · 4.7 reb · 2.6 ast Score 92

C W. Carter13.5 pts · 8.8 reb · 1.2 ast Score 28

MINBig

C R. Gobert7 pts · 12.3 reb · 1.5 ast Score 98

MagicBetterTimberwolves

ORL offense21st of 30 · -1.5

MINBig

MIN defense8th of 30 · +3.6

ORL defense15th of 30 · -0.1

MINBig

MIN offense3rd of 30 · +3.7

Backcourt-2.5 · 2 players

MINBig

Backcourt+12.6 · 2 players

Frontcourt+14.7 · 3 players

MINBig

Frontcourt+46.4 · 3 players

Bench-1.8 · 5 players

MINSmall

Bench+0.3 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestORL betterMIN betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Magic

Guards

D. Bane35 minJ. Richardson20 minJ. Carter18 minA. Morales6 min

Forwards

F. Wagner35 minT. da Silva29 minJ. Cain15 min

Centers

W. Carter32 minG. Bitadze9 minN. Vucevic9 minC. Castleton5 min

Out

J. SuggsOutP. BancheroOutA. BlackOut

Timberwolves

Guards

A. Dosunmu29 minL. Ball25 minT. Shannon22 minB. Hyland12 minJ. Clark9 minZ. Pullin8 min

Forwards

J. McDaniels33 minJ. Kuminga30 minC. Williams24 minJ. Beringer19 minT. Lyles16 minI. Evans3 min

Centers

R. Gobert30 min

Out

A. EdwardsOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

ORL107.7 #26

MIN120.0 #6

Points per possession

ORL1.07 #21

MIN1.13 #8

Pace (possessions)

ORL101.9 #22

MIN105.4 #9

Shooting

Effective FG%

ORL53.4 #15

MIN55.8 #6

3-point %

ORL35.4 #11

MIN37.6 #6

3-point attempt rate

ORL46.5 #6

MIN42.8 #16

Free throw rate

ORL31.7 #9

MIN26.1 #21

Possessions

Turnover rate

ORL17.0 #24

MIN15.1 #12

Offensive rebound rate

ORL23.4 #26

MIN30.0 #7

Assists per game

ORL26.3 #16

MIN27.3 #11

Defense

Points allowed

ORL116.7 #22

MIN108.7 #8

Points allowed per possession

ORL1.13 #24

MIN1.04 #4

Opponent effective FG%

ORL53.0 #13

MIN50.5 #5

Opponent 3-point %

ORL34.6 #13

MIN31.2 #6

Turnovers forced

ORL13.6 #26

MIN15.6 #17

Defensive rebound rate

ORL68.9 #26

MIN75.4 #8

Steals per game

ORL7.0 #26

MIN9.0 #13

Blocks per game

ORL4.2 #23

MIN4.3 #20

ORL		MIN
Scoring
107.7 #26	Points per game	120.0 #6
1.07 #21	Points per possession	1.13 #8
101.9 #22	Pace (possessions)	105.4 #9
Shooting
53.4 #15	Effective FG%	55.8 #6
35.4 #11	3-point %	37.6 #6
46.5 #6	3-point attempt rate	42.8 #16
31.7 #9	Free throw rate	26.1 #21
Possessions
17.0 #24	Turnover rate	15.1 #12
23.4 #26	Offensive rebound rate	30.0 #7
26.3 #16	Assists per game	27.3 #11
Defense
116.7 #22	Points allowed	108.7 #8
1.13 #24	Points allowed per possession	1.04 #4
53.0 #13	Opponent effective FG%	50.5 #5
34.6 #13	Opponent 3-point %	31.2 #6
13.6 #26	Turnovers forced	15.6 #17
68.9 #26	Defensive rebound rate	75.4 #8
7.0 #26	Steals per game	9.0 #13
4.2 #23	Blocks per game	4.3 #20

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Magic

2-4 overall · 2-3 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs Celtics97–108
W@ Raptors121–114
L@ Raptors99–129
W@ Knicks111–102
Lvs Timberwolves93–115

A week or more of rest.

Timberwolves

4-3 overall · 1-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Spurs111–121
Wvs Clippers127–101
Lvs Warriors114–119
L@ Cavaliers125–127
Wvs Raptors117–94

A week or more of rest.

Magic @ Timberwolves

What could decide it: MIN has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Magic

Timberwolves

Timberwolves has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Magic

Timberwolves