LA Clippers at Oklahoma City Thunder: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Mar 26, 8:00 PM ETPaycom Center · at Thunder · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Clippers and Thunder
LAC	This season	OKC
1-5	Record	4-2
3-3	ATS	3-3
3-3	O/U	1-5

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects OKC 113–107 · win probability OKC 67%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 220.0

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: OKC has more of the edges

LAC 3, OKC 5 · 2026-27 so far

OKCBig

LAC offense vs OKC defense

Offense 28th of 30 against a defense 2nd, on the model’s ratings

OKCBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: LAC 20.4%, OKC 14.5%. Forced: LAC 17.0%, OKC 15.8%

OKCSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: LAC 26.5%, OKC 28.5%. Defensive: LAC 70.9%, OKC 71.4%

OKCSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: LAC 52.9 and allows 56.9; OKC 49.5 and allows 51.0

LACSmall

Three-pointers

LAC hits 38.6% and allows 38.2%; OKC hits 30.9% and allows 35.3%. Threes are 42.3% and 35.8% of their shots

LACSmall

OKC offense vs LAC defense

Offense 18th of 30 against a defense 12th, on the model’s ratings

LACSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: LAC 28.0, OKC 21.8. Allowed: LAC 24.7, OKC 23.4

Context

Schedule so far

LAC has played the 10th-hardest schedule, OKC the 5th. A record against a soft schedule means less

OKCSmall

Home court

OKC at home. This season: OKC 3-0 at home, LAC 0-4 away

Context

Tempo

About 101 possessions: LAC plays 101.7 a game (23rd fastest), OKC 101.1 (27th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Recent form

Last 5: LAC 2-3 ATS, margin -13.8; OKC 2-3 ATS, margin -3.0

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: LAC 100%, OKC 100%. Transfers in: LAC 0, OKC 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LAC WWLLL	3-3	50%	2-2	—
OKC WLWLL	3-3	50%	2-1	—

Venue/role: LAC away; OKC home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
LAC OUUOO	3-3	50%	1-5
OKC UUOUU	1-5	17%	4-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LAClast 6	1-5 17%	3-3 50%	3-3 50%
OKClast 6	4-2 67%	3-3 50%	1-5 17%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Clippers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 27	@ CHI	W119–108LU
Mar 29	@ DET	W98–92WU
Mar 31	@ ATL	W115–92WU

Thunder

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 28	@ MIN	W116–103WU
Mar 30	@ UTAH	W146–111WO
Apr 1	vs LAL	W115–110LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 18 since 2021-22

LAC 4–14 OKCOKC leads · 18 games since 2021-22 · OKC has won the last 9 meetings · LAC 5-13 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Oct 25, 2026-27	LAC 101 @ OKC 108	OKC -16.5	LAC W
Apr 8, 2025-26	OKC 128 @ LAC 110	LAC +8.5	OKC W
Dec 18, 2025-26	LAC 101 @ OKC 122	OKC -16.5	OKC W
Nov 4, 2025-26	OKC 126 @ LAC 107	LAC +8.5	OKC W
Mar 23, 2024-25	OKC 103 @ LAC 101	LAC -0.5	OKC W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Clippers

6 games played

Straight up

1-5

17% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg −3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg −3.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-517%

W L L L L L

5 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

W W W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-350%

U O U U O O

2 straight overs2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsSAC	W 121-96	-5.5	W +19.5	226.5	U 217
Oct 23	@LAL	L 117-125	+8.5	W +0.5	225.5	O 242
Oct 25	@OKC	L 101-108	+16.5	W +9.5	223.5	U 209
Oct 28	vsLAL	L 87-103	-1.5	L −17.5	224.5	U 190
Oct 30	@MIN	L 101-127	+6.5	L −19.5	222.5	O 228
Nov 1	@GS	L 112-124	+1.5	L −10.5	220.5	O 236

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SAC

W 121-96

+19.5

LAL

L 117-125

+0.5

OKC

L 101-108

+9.5

LAL

L 87-103

−17.5

MIN

L 101-127

−19.5

L 112-124

−10.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg −3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SAC

W 121-96

−9.5

LAL

L 117-125

+16.5

OKC

L 101-108

−14.5

LAL

L 87-103

−34.5

MIN

L 101-127

+5.5

L 112-124

+15.5

over 3under 3avg −3.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Thunder

6 games played

Straight up

4-2

67% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg −6.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-5

17% overs · avg −12.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-267%

W W W W L L

2 straight losses2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

W W L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

1-517%

U U U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 20	@SA	W 116-104	-1.5	W +10.5	229.5	U 220
Oct 22	vsDEN	W 96-84	-7.5	W +4.5	236.5	U 180
Oct 25	vsLAC	W 108-101	-16.5	L −9.5	223.5	U 209
Oct 26	vsPHX	W 125-114	-8.5	W +2.5	221.5	O 239
Oct 28	@DAL	L 96-120	-4.5	L −28.5	227.5	U 216
Oct 31	@HOU	L 98-119	+2.5	L −18.5	219.5	U 217

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 116-104

+10.5

DEN

W 96-84

+4.5

LAC

W 108-101

−9.5

PHX

W 125-114

+2.5

DAL

L 96-120

−28.5

HOU

L 98-119

−18.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg −6.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 116-104

−9.5

DEN

W 96-84

−56.5

LAC

W 108-101

−14.5

PHX

W 125-114

+17.5

DAL

L 96-120

−11.5

HOU

L 98-119

−2.5

over 1under 5avg −12.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Thunder has the better starters

Position by position: Clippers 2, Thunder 3, even 0

ClippersBetterThunder

G D. Garland20.8 pts · 1.3 reb · 6.3 ast Score 27

OKCBig

G S. Gilgeous-Alexander26 pts · 4.5 reb · 3.3 ast Score 88

G K. Dunn8.5 pts · 3.8 reb · 5.3 ast Score 25

OKCBig

G A. Mitchell16.5 pts · 3.3 reb · 3.8 ast Score 99

G K. Sanders8.5 pts · 3 reb · 2 ast Score 31

LACSmall

G J. McCain10.8 pts · 2.3 reb · 2.2 ast Score 8

F R. Hachimura13.4 pts · 6 reb · 0.6 ast Score 83

LACBig

G K. Williams5 pts · 3.5 reb · 0.7 ast Score 40

F I. Jackson8 pts · 6.2 reb · 2.3 ast Score 8

OKCBig

C I. Hartenstein9.5 pts · 9.2 reb · 2 ast Score 88

ClippersBetterThunder

LAC offense28th of 30 · -3.5

OKCBig

OKC defense2nd of 30 · +6.2

LAC defense12th of 30 · +1.7

LACSmall

OKC offense18th of 30 · -1.1

Backcourt-5.9 · 3 players

OKCBig

Backcourt+24.2 · 4 players

Frontcourt+3.6 · 2 players

OKCBig

Frontcourt+12.0 · 1 player

Bench+3.5 · 5 players

LACBig

Bench-4.1 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestLAC betterOKC betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Clippers

Guards

D. Garland33 minK. Dunn30 minK. Sanders23 minK. Wagler25 minJ. Pickett16 minG. Dick14 min

Forwards

R. Hachimura30 minI. Jackson22 minB. Miller8 minN. Martinelli5 min

Centers

B. Lopez22 min

Out

D. JonesDay-To-Day

Thunder

Guards

S. Gilgeous-Alexander33 minA. Mitchell26 minJ. McCain25 minK. Williams14 minJ. Dix18 minB. Stirtz16 min

Forwards

J. Williams18 minB. Barnhizer9 min

Centers

I. Hartenstein24 minA. Mara18 min

Out

A. CarusoOutC. HolmgrenOutJ. WilliamsOutC. WallaceOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

LAC106.5 #28

OKC106.5 #29

Points per possession

LAC1.04 #27

OKC1.05 #23

Pace (possessions)

LAC101.7 #23

OKC101.1 #27

Shooting

Effective FG%

LAC52.9 #18

OKC49.5 #28

3-point %

LAC38.6 #5

OKC30.9 #26

3-point attempt rate

LAC42.3 #17

OKC35.8 #29

Free throw rate

LAC28.0 #17

OKC21.8 #28

Possessions

Turnover rate

LAC20.4 #30

OKC14.5 #7

Offensive rebound rate

LAC26.5 #21

OKC28.5 #10

Assists per game

LAC24.3 #26

OKC21.7 #29

Defense

Points allowed

LAC113.8 #15

OKC107.0 #5

Points allowed per possession

LAC1.13 #22

OKC1.06 #7

Opponent effective FG%

LAC56.9 #28

OKC51.0 #6

Opponent 3-point %

LAC38.2 #26

OKC35.3 #17

Turnovers forced

LAC17.0 #8

OKC15.8 #13

Defensive rebound rate

LAC70.9 #20

OKC71.4 #18

Steals per game

LAC11.3 #3

OKC8.3 #20

Blocks per game

LAC4.2 #22

OKC6.3 #7

LAC		OKC
Scoring
106.5 #28	Points per game	106.5 #29
1.04 #27	Points per possession	1.05 #23
101.7 #23	Pace (possessions)	101.1 #27
Shooting
52.9 #18	Effective FG%	49.5 #28
38.6 #5	3-point %	30.9 #26
42.3 #17	3-point attempt rate	35.8 #29
28.0 #17	Free throw rate	21.8 #28
Possessions
20.4 #30	Turnover rate	14.5 #7
26.5 #21	Offensive rebound rate	28.5 #10
24.3 #26	Assists per game	21.7 #29
Defense
113.8 #15	Points allowed	107.0 #5
1.13 #22	Points allowed per possession	1.06 #7
56.9 #28	Opponent effective FG%	51.0 #6
38.2 #26	Opponent 3-point %	35.3 #17
17.0 #8	Turnovers forced	15.8 #13
70.9 #20	Defensive rebound rate	71.4 #18
11.3 #3	Steals per game	8.3 #20
4.2 #22	Blocks per game	6.3 #7

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Clippers

1-5 overall · 1-5 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Warriors112–124
L@ Timberwolves101–127
Lvs Lakers87–103
L@ Thunder101–108
L@ Lakers117–125

A week or more of rest.

Thunder

4-2 overall · 4-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Rockets98–119
L@ Mavericks96–120
Wvs Suns125–114
Wvs Clippers108–101
Wvs Nuggets96–84

A week or more of rest.

Clippers @ Thunder

What could decide it: OKC has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Clippers

Thunder

Thunder has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Clippers

Thunder