Milwaukee Bucks at Phoenix Suns: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Mar 26, 10:00 PM ETMortgage Matchup Center · at Suns

#21PHXSuns

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Bucks and Suns
MIL	This season	PHX
1-5	Record	1-3
2-4	ATS	0-4
5-1	O/U	3-1

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects PHX 120–112 · win probability PHX 72%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 231.2

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: PHX has more of the edges

MIL 3, PHX 4 · 2026-27 so far

Context

Schedule so far

MIL has played the 23rd-hardest schedule, PHX the 3rd. A record against a soft schedule means less

PHXBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: MIL 15.8%, PHX 15.2%. Forced: MIL 12.2%, PHX 17.1%

MILBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: MIL 29.7%, PHX 28.3%. Defensive: MIL 74.2%, PHX 65.1%

Context

Tempo

About 104 possessions: MIL plays 106.2 a game (4th fastest), PHX 101.3 (26th). Faster games mean more points

PHXBig

PHX offense vs MIL defense

Offense 19th of 30 against a defense 28th, on the model’s ratings

MILSmall

Recent form

Last 4: MIL 2-3 ATS, margin -13.4; PHX 0-4 ATS, margin -12.5

MILSmall

Three-pointers

MIL hits 33.9% and allows 34.9%; PHX hits 35.0% and allows 43.9%. Threes are 45.9% and 45.1% of their shots

PHXSmall

MIL offense vs PHX defense

Offense 26th of 30 against a defense 21st, on the model’s ratings

PHXSmall

Home court

PHX at home. This season: PHX 1-1 at home, MIL 0-2 away

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: MIL 23.9, PHX 22.8. Allowed: MIL 29.7, PHX 31.1

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: MIL 52.0 and allows 55.4; PHX 54.4 and allows 58.7

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: MIL 100%, PHX 100%. Transfers in: MIL 0, PHX 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MIL LWWLL	2-4	33%	1-1	—
PHX LLLL	0-4	0%	0-2	—

Venue/role: MIL away; PHX home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
MIL OOUOO	5-1	83%	1-5
PHX UOOO	3-1	75%	1-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MILlast 6	1-5 17%	2-4 33%	5-1 83%
PHXlast 4	1-3 25%	0-4 0%	3-1 75%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Bucks

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 27	@ POR	L99–130LO
Mar 29	vs DAL	W123–99WU
Mar 31	vs NO	W139–118WO

Suns

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 28	vs TOR	W120–98WU
Mar 29	@ SA	L100–101WU
Mar 31	@ SA	L100–101WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

MIL 6–4 PHXMIL leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · MIL 6-3-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 21, 2025-26	MIL 108 @ PHX 105	PHX -11.5	MIL W
Mar 10, 2025-26	PHX 129 @ MIL 114	MIL +2.5	PHX W
Apr 1, 2024-25	PHX 123 @ MIL 133	MIL -6.5	MIL W
Mar 24, 2024-25	MIL 106 @ PHX 108	PHX -2.5	MIL W
Mar 17, 2023-24	PHX 129 @ MIL 140	MIL +2.5	MIL W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Bucks

6 games played

Straight up

1-5

17% wins

Against the spread

2-4

33% covers · avg −7.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-1

83% overs · avg +3.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-517%

L L L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-433%

L L W W L L

2 straight misses ATS2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

5-183%

O O O U O O

2 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@WSH	L 116-128	+4.5	L −7.5	239.5	O 244
Oct 23	vsCHI	L 125-132	-1.5	L −8.5	241.5	O 257
Oct 24	@PHI	L 116-127	+12.5	W +1.5	234.5	O 243
Oct 26	vsIND	W 110-102	+3.5	W +11.5	239.5	U 212
Oct 28	vsHOU	L 100-132	+8.5	L −23.5	226.5	O 232
Oct 31	vsCLE	L 111-136	+8.5	L −16.5	234.5	O 247

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

WSH

L 116-128

−7.5

CHI

L 125-132

−8.5

PHI

L 116-127

+1.5

IND

W 110-102

+11.5

HOU

L 100-132

−23.5

CLE

L 111-136

−16.5

covered 2didn’t cover 4avg −7.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

WSH

L 116-128

+4.5

CHI

L 125-132

+15.5

PHI

L 116-127

+8.5

IND

W 110-102

−27.5

HOU

L 100-132

+5.5

CLE

L 111-136

+12.5

over 5under 1avg +3.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Suns

4 games played

Straight up

1-3

25% wins

Against the spread

0-4

0% covers · avg −10.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-1

75% overs · avg +9.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-325%

L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

0-40%

L L L L

4 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-175%

U O O O

3 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@POR	L 83-124	+3.5	L −37.5	232.5	U 207
Oct 24	vsGS	W 131-122	-9.5	L −0.5	221.5	O 253
Oct 26	@OKC	L 114-125	+8.5	L −2.5	221.5	O 239
Oct 30	vsDEN	L 120-127	+4.5	L −2.5	231.5	O 247

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

POR

L 83-124

−37.5

W 131-122

−0.5

OKC

L 114-125

−2.5

DEN

L 120-127

−2.5

covered 0didn’t cover 4avg −10.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

POR

L 83-124

−25.5

W 131-122

+31.5

OKC

L 114-125

+17.5

DEN

L 120-127

+15.5

over 3under 1avg +9.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: Bucks 2, Suns 2, even 1

BucksBetterSuns

G T. Herro22 pts · 4.8 reb · 4.2 ast Score 6

PHXBig

G D. Booker22.3 pts · 3.8 reb · 5.3 ast Score 92

G R. Rollins11.2 pts · 4.3 reb · 4.7 ast Score 2

Even

G J. Green11 pts · 2.5 reb · 2.5 ast Score 11

F J. Jaquez16.2 pts · 7.2 reb · 3 ast Score 51

MILBig

F M. Bridges16.3 pts · 7.3 reb · 2.3 ast Score 14

F K. Kuzma11.3 pts · 7.2 reb · 2.8 ast Score 31

PHXSmall

F D. Brooks16.5 pts · 3 reb · 3 ast Score 59

C M. Turner7.2 pts · 5.2 reb · 2.2 ast Score 56

MILBig

C K. Maluach8 pts · 7 reb · 1.3 ast Score 16

BucksBetterSuns

MIL offense26th of 30 · -2.9

PHXSmall

PHX defense21st of 30 · -1.3

MIL defense28th of 30 · -6.0

PHXSmall

PHX offense19th of 30 · -1.2

Backcourt-20.2 · 2 players

PHXBig

Backcourt+10.4 · 2 players

Frontcourt+5.0 · 3 players

MILBig

Frontcourt-4.6 · 3 players

Bench-0.7 · 5 players

PHXSmall

Bench+1.4 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestMIL betterPHX betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Bucks

Guards

T. Herro30 minR. Rollins26 minK. Porter33 minK. Jakucionis23 minG. Trent21 minA. Green19 min

Forwards

J. Jaquez28 minK. Kuzma27 minN. Ament16 minO. Dieng12 minB. Markovic5 min

Centers

M. Turner26 minJ. Sims20 minK. Ware20 min

Suns

Guards

D. Booker35 minJ. Green27 minC. Gillespie26 minJ. Goodwin21 minP. Spencer18 minL. Kennard15 min

Forwards

M. Bridges33 minD. Brooks29 minO. Ighodaro18 minR. Dunn13 minR. Fleming12 minC. Huntley10 min

Centers

K. Maluach22 minD. Reath8 min

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27, 4 games in · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

MIL113.0 #17

PHX112.0 #19

Points per possession

MIL1.07 #20

PHX1.12 #12

Pace (possessions)

MIL106.2 #4

PHX101.3 #26

Shooting

Effective FG%

MIL52.0 #21

PHX54.4 #13

3-point %

MIL33.9 #21

PHX35.0 #16

3-point attempt rate

MIL45.9 #8

PHX45.1 #10

Free throw rate

MIL23.9 #25

PHX22.8 #27

Possessions

Turnover rate

MIL15.8 #18

PHX15.2 #15

Offensive rebound rate

MIL29.7 #8

PHX28.3 #11

Assists per game

MIL26.0 #20

PHX27.5 #8

Defense

Points allowed

MIL126.2 #28

PHX124.5 #27

Points allowed per possession

MIL1.18 #28

PHX1.21 #30

Opponent effective FG%

MIL55.4 #24

PHX58.7 #29

Opponent 3-point %

MIL34.9 #14

PHX43.9 #30

Turnovers forced

MIL12.2 #30

PHX17.1 #7

Defensive rebound rate

MIL74.2 #10

PHX65.1 #30

Steals per game

MIL5.7 #30

PHX9.0 #15

Blocks per game

MIL4.0 #27

PHX5.3 #10

MIL		PHX
Scoring
113.0 #17	Points per game	112.0 #19
1.07 #20	Points per possession	1.12 #12
106.2 #4	Pace (possessions)	101.3 #26
Shooting
52.0 #21	Effective FG%	54.4 #13
33.9 #21	3-point %	35.0 #16
45.9 #8	3-point attempt rate	45.1 #10
23.9 #25	Free throw rate	22.8 #27
Possessions
15.8 #18	Turnover rate	15.2 #15
29.7 #8	Offensive rebound rate	28.3 #11
26.0 #20	Assists per game	27.5 #8
Defense
126.2 #28	Points allowed	124.5 #27
1.18 #28	Points allowed per possession	1.21 #30
55.4 #24	Opponent effective FG%	58.7 #29
34.9 #14	Opponent 3-point %	43.9 #30
12.2 #30	Turnovers forced	17.1 #7
74.2 #10	Defensive rebound rate	65.1 #30
5.7 #30	Steals per game	9.0 #15
4.0 #27	Blocks per game	5.3 #10

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Bucks

1-5 overall · 1-4 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs Cavaliers111–136
Lvs Rockets100–132
Wvs Pacers110–102
L@ 76ers116–127
Lvs Bulls125–132

A week or more of rest.

Suns

1-3 overall · 1-3 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs Nuggets120–127
L@ Thunder114–125
Wvs Warriors131–122
L@ Trail Blazers83–124

A week or more of rest.

Bucks @ Suns

What could decide it: PHX has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Bucks

Suns

The starting fives are even

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Bucks

Suns