Target Center · at Timberwolves · Conference game
LineNo line yet
Total—
 DAL | This season | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 4-2 | Record | 4-3 |
| 4-2 | ATS | 6-1 |
| 2-4 | O/U | 4-3 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model: projects MIN 120–111 · win probability MIN 75%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 230.7
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record
What could decide it: MIN has more of the edges
DAL 0, MIN 5 · 2026-27 so far
MINBigMIN offense vs DAL defense
Offense 3rd of 30 against a defense 16th, on the model’s ratings
MINBigRebounding
Offensive rebound rate: DAL 27.8%, MIN 30.0%. Defensive: DAL 69.4%, MIN 75.4%
MINBigTurnovers
Turnover rate: DAL 16.8%, MIN 15.1%. Forced: DAL 14.5%, MIN 15.6%
MINSmallDAL offense vs MIN defense
Offense 16th of 30 against a defense 8th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
DAL has played the 2nd-hardest schedule, MIN the 7th. A record against a soft schedule means less
Context
Tempo
About 104 possessions: DAL plays 102.8 a game (18th fastest), MIN 105.4 (9th). Faster games mean more points
MINSmallHome court
MIN at home. This season: MIN 2-1 at home, DAL 2-1 away
Even
Three-pointers
DAL hits 35.1% and allows 29.7%; MIN hits 37.6% and allows 31.2%. Threes are 42.1% and 42.8% of their shots
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: DAL 21.4, MIN 26.1. Allowed: DAL 27.2, MIN 28.9
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: DAL 56.9 and allows 51.3; MIN 55.8 and allows 50.5
Even
Recent form
Last 5: DAL 4-1 ATS, margin +6.6; MIN 4-1 ATS, margin +6.4
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: DAL 100%, MIN 100%. Transfers in: DAL 0, MIN 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edge
Spread
Market—
ModelMIN -9.6
Model edge—
Total
Market—
Model230.7
Model edge—
Projected score
DAL 110.6 · MIN 120.1
Win probability
MIN 75%
1st half
Spread
MIN -5.3
Total
115.5
Projected score
DAL 55.1 · MIN 60.4
Market
Open → current
Spread
Open—
no open
Now—
Opening line not available
Total
Open—
no open
Now—
Moneyline
—
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2026-27, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DALlast 6 | 4-2 67% | 4-2 67% | 2-4 33% |
| MINlast 7 | 4-3 57% | 6-1 86% | 4-3 57% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 23 since 2021-22
DAL 9–14 MINMIN leads · 23 games since 2021-22 · MIN has won the last 6 meetings · DAL 12-11 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 30, 2025-26 | MIN 124 @ DAL 94 | DAL +8.5 | MIN W |
| Feb 20, 2025-26 | DAL 111 @ MIN 122 | MIN -13.5 | DAL W |
| Jan 28, 2025-26 | MIN 118 @ DAL 105 | DAL +8.5 | MIN W |
| Nov 17, 2025-26 | DAL 96 @ MIN 120 | MIN -13.5 | MIN W |
| Jan 22, 2024-25 | MIN 115 @ DAL 114 | DAL +3.5 | DAL W |
ATS History · 2026-27
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Mavericks
6 games played
Straight up
4-2
67% wins
Against the spread
4-2
67% covers · avg +10.7 pts vs the line
Over / Under
2-4
33% overs · avg −6 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
21
@
HOU
HOUL 110-128
−8.5
23
@
IND
INDW 121-105
+23.5
24
vs
SA
SAL 106-122
−1.5
26
@
MIA
MIAW 113-109
+11.5
28
vs
OKC
OKCW 120-96
+28.5
30
vsHOU
HOUW 116-111
+10.5
covered 4didn’t cover 2avg +10.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
21
@HOU
HOUL 110-128
+7.5
23
@IND
INDW 121-105
−15.5
24
vsSA
SAL 106-122
−1.5
26
@MIA
MIAW 113-109
−18.5
28
vsOKC
OKCW 120-96
−11.5
30
vsHOU
HOUW 116-111
+3.5
over 2under 4avg −6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Timberwolves
7 games played
Straight up
4-3
57% wins
Against the spread
6-1
86% covers · avg +12.1 pts vs the line
Over / Under
4-3
57% overs · avg −2.5 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21 | @MIA | W 131-106 | +1.5 | W +26.5 | 240.5 | U 237 |
| Oct 23 | @ ORL | W 115-93 | +1.5 | W +23.5 | 234.5 | U 208 |
| Oct 25 | vs TOR | W 117-94 | -3.5 | W +19.5 | 228.5 | U 211 |
| Oct 26 | @ CLE | L 125-127 | +3.5 | W +1.5 | 234.5 | O 252 |
| Oct 28 | vs GS | L 114-119 | -3.5 | L −8.5 | 227.5 | O 233 |
| Oct 30 | vs LAC | W 127-101 | -6.5 | W +19.5 | 222.5 | O 228 |
| Oct 31 | @SA | L 111-121 | +12.5 | W +2.5 | 230.5 | O 232 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
21
@MIA
MIAW 131-106
+26.5
23
@ORL
ORLW 115-93
+23.5
25
vsTOR
TORW 117-94
+19.5
26
@CLE
CLEL 125-127
+1.5
28
vsGS
GSL 114-119
−8.5
30
vsLAC
LACW 127-101
+19.5
31
@SA
SAL 111-121
+2.5
covered 6didn’t cover 1avg +12.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
21
@MIA
MIAW 131-106
−3.5
23
@ORL
ORLW 115-93
−26.5
25
vsTOR
TORW 117-94
−17.5
26
@CLE
CLEL 125-127
+17.5
28
vsGS
GSL 114-119
+5.5
30
vsLAC
LACW 127-101
+5.5
31
@SA
SAL 111-121
+1.5
over 4under 3avg −2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Timberwolves has the better starters
Position by position: Mavericks 0, Timberwolves 4, even 1
MavericksBetterTimberwolves
G M. Christie8.3 pts · 3.8 reb · 2 ast
Score 9
→MINSmall
G A. Dosunmu15.3 pts · 5 reb · 3.4 ast
Score 42
F P. Washington13.8 pts · 8.2 reb · 1.2 ast
Score 78
=Even
G L. Ball14.4 pts · 3.4 reb · 6.3 ast
Score 91
F C. Flagg26.8 pts · 6 reb · 6.6 ast
Score 49
→MINBig
F J. McDaniels17.3 pts · 6 reb · 3.7 ast
Score 96
F Z. Risacher9.5 pts · 6 reb · 1.7 ast
Score 65
→MINSmall
F J. Kuminga12.9 pts · 4.7 reb · 2.6 ast
Score 92
F D. Gafford8.5 pts · 7 reb · 2.5 ast
Score 46
→MINBig
C R. Gobert7 pts · 12.3 reb · 1.5 ast
Score 98
MavericksBetterTimberwolves
DAL offense16th of 30 · +0.6
→MINSmall
MIN defense8th of 30 · +3.6
DAL defense16th of 30 · -0.1
→MINBig
MIN offense3rd of 30 · +3.7
Backcourt-6.6 · 1 player
→MINBig
Backcourt+12.6 · 2 players
Frontcourt+16.0 · 4 players
→MINBig
Frontcourt+46.4 · 3 players
Bench+2.7 · 5 players
←DALSmall
Bench+0.3 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestDAL betterMIN betterNEW no NBA numbers yet
Depth chart
Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
MavericksGuards
M. Christie27 minM. Sasser19 minJ. Howard12 min
Forwards
P. Washington34 minC. Flagg32 minZ. Risacher30 minD. Gafford24 minN. Marshall28 minC. Martin20 min
Centers
M. Cisse14 min
Out
S. de LarreaOutK. IrvingDay-To-Day
TimberwolvesGuards
A. Dosunmu29 minL. Ball25 minT. Shannon22 minB. Hyland12 minJ. Clark9 minZ. Pullin8 min
Forwards
J. McDaniels33 minJ. Kuminga30 minC. Williams24 minJ. Beringer19 minT. Lyles16 minI. Evans3 min
Centers
R. Gobert30 min
Out
A. EdwardsOut
Matchup stats
2026-27 · rank among 30 teams
Scoring
Points per game
DAL114.3 #14MIN120.0 #6Points per possession
DAL1.12 #11MIN1.13 #8Pace (possessions)
DAL102.8 #18MIN105.4 #9Shooting
Effective FG%
DAL56.9 #2MIN55.8 #63-point %
DAL35.1 #14MIN37.6 #63-point attempt rate
DAL42.1 #18MIN42.8 #16Free throw rate
DAL21.4 #29MIN26.1 #21Possessions
Turnover rate
DAL16.8 #23MIN15.1 #12Offensive rebound rate
DAL27.8 #13MIN30.0 #7Assists per game
DAL27.0 #12MIN27.3 #11Defense
Points allowed
DAL111.8 #14MIN108.7 #8Points allowed per possession
DAL1.08 #13MIN1.04 #4Opponent effective FG%
DAL51.3 #9MIN50.5 #5Opponent 3-point %
DAL29.7 #2MIN31.2 #6Turnovers forced
DAL14.5 #24MIN15.6 #17Defensive rebound rate
DAL69.4 #25MIN75.4 #8Steals per game
DAL8.8 #16MIN9.0 #13Blocks per game
DAL6.8 #2MIN4.3 #20| DAL | MIN | |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| 114.3 #14 | Points per game | 120.0 #6 |
| 1.12 #11 | Points per possession | 1.13 #8 |
| 102.8 #18 | Pace (possessions) | 105.4 #9 |
| Shooting | ||
| 56.9 #2 | Effective FG% | 55.8 #6 |
| 35.1 #14 | 3-point % | 37.6 #6 |
| 42.1 #18 | 3-point attempt rate | 42.8 #16 |
| 21.4 #29 | Free throw rate | 26.1 #21 |
| Possessions | ||
| 16.8 #23 | Turnover rate | 15.1 #12 |
| 27.8 #13 | Offensive rebound rate | 30.0 #7 |
| 27.0 #12 | Assists per game | 27.3 #11 |
| Defense | ||
| 111.8 #14 | Points allowed | 108.7 #8 |
| 1.08 #13 | Points allowed per possession | 1.04 #4 |
| 51.3 #9 | Opponent effective FG% | 50.5 #5 |
| 29.7 #2 | Opponent 3-point % | 31.2 #6 |
| 14.5 #24 | Turnovers forced | 15.6 #17 |
| 69.4 #25 | Defensive rebound rate | 75.4 #8 |
| 8.8 #16 | Steals per game | 9.0 #13 |
| 6.8 #2 | Blocks per game | 4.3 #20 |
Mavericks
4-2 overall · 2-2 in conference · Western Conference
Last five, 2026-27
- Wvs Rockets116–111
- Wvs Thunder120–96
- W@ Heat113–109
- Lvs Spurs106–122
- W@ Pacers121–105
A week or more of rest.
Timberwolves
4-3 overall · 1-2 in conference · Western Conference
Last five, 2026-27
- L@ Spurs111–121
- Wvs Clippers127–101
- Lvs Warriors114–119
- L@ Cavaliers125–127
- Wvs Raptors117–94
A week or more of rest.