Sacramento Kings at Chicago Bulls: Model Line and Edge

Mon, Mar 22, 8:00 PM ETUnited Center · at Bulls

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Kings and Bulls
SAC	This season	CHI
0-6	Record	1-5
1-5	ATS	3-3
5-1	O/U	2-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects CHI 123–119 · win probability CHI 61%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 242.1

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: CHI has more of the edges

SAC 0, CHI 4 · 2026-27 so far

CHIBig

CHI offense vs SAC defense

Offense 12th of 30 against a defense 29th, on the model’s ratings

CHISmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: SAC 26.4, CHI 38.3. Allowed: SAC 31.2, CHI 33.5

Context

Schedule so far

SAC has played the 8th-hardest schedule, CHI the 14th. A record against a soft schedule means less

CHISmall

Recent form

Last 5: SAC 1-4 ATS, margin -17.8; CHI 3-2 ATS, margin -10.4

CHISmall

Home court

CHI at home. This season: CHI 0-2 at home, SAC 0-4 away

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: SAC 22.9%, CHI 29.2%. Defensive: SAC 73.7%, CHI 69.8%

Even

SAC offense vs CHI defense

Offense 27th of 30 against a defense 30th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Tempo

About 108 possessions: SAC plays 106.0 a game (6th fastest), CHI 109.8 (1st). Faster games mean more points

Even

Three-pointers

SAC hits 30.4% and allows 39.2%; CHI hits 28.1% and allows 39.3%. Threes are 38.0% and 47.9% of their shots

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: SAC 51.0 and allows 60.4; CHI 48.2 and allows 56.0

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: SAC 15.9%, CHI 16.2%. Forced: SAC 14.6%, CHI 14.7%

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: SAC 100%, CHI 100%. Transfers in: SAC 0, CHI 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SAC WLLLL	1-5	17%	0-4	—
CHI WLLWW	3-3	50%	1-1	—

Venue/role: SAC away; CHI home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
SAC OOOOO	5-1	83%	0-6
CHI OUUOU	2-4	33%	1-5

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SAClast 6	0-6 0%	1-5 17%	5-1 83%
CHIlast 6	1-5 17%	3-3 50%	2-4 33%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Kings

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 24	vs ATL	L113–123WO
Mar 27	vs TOR	W123–115WO
Mar 29	vs DEN	L105–136LO

Bulls

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 24	vs ORL	L103–127LU
Mar 25	@ MEM	L124–125LO
Mar 27	vs LAC	L108–119WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

SAC 6–4 CHISAC leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · SAC 5-5 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 8, 2025-26	CHI 110 @ SAC 126	SAC +4.5	SAC W
Oct 29, 2025-26	SAC 113 @ CHI 126	CHI -4.5	CHI W
Mar 20, 2024-25	CHI 128 @ SAC 116	SAC -7.5	CHI W
Jan 12, 2024-25	SAC 124 @ CHI 119	CHI +5.5	CHI W
Mar 4, 2023-24	CHI 113 @ SAC 109	SAC -6.5	CHI W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Kings

6 games played

Straight up

0-6

0% wins

Against the spread

1-5

17% covers · avg −10.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-1

83% overs · avg +6.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

0-60%

L L L L L L

6 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

1-517%

L W L L L L

4 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

5-183%

U O O O O O

5 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@LAC	L 96-121	+5.5	L −19.5	226.5	U 217
Oct 23	vsPOR	L 120-128	+9.5	W +1.5	231.5	O 248
Oct 25	vsMEM	L 112-123	+3.5	L −7.5	234.5	O 235
Oct 27	@SA	L 103-130	+19.5	L −7.5	232.5	O 233
Oct 29	@NO	L 120-132	+6.5	L −5.5	234.5	O 252
Oct 31	@MEM	L 105-136	+7.5	L −23.5	229.5	O 241

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

LAC

L 96-121

−19.5

POR

L 120-128

+1.5

MEM

L 112-123

−7.5

L 103-130

−7.5

L 120-132

−5.5

MEM

L 105-136

−23.5

covered 1didn’t cover 5avg −10.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

LAC

L 96-121

−9.5

POR

L 120-128

+16.5

MEM

L 112-123

+0.5

L 103-130

+0.5

L 120-132

+17.5

MEM

L 105-136

+11.5

over 5under 1avg +6.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Bulls

6 games played

Straight up

1-5

17% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg −8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg +5 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-517%

L W L L L L

4 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

L W L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-433%

U O U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@TOR	L 92-135	+10.5	L −32.5	237.5	U 227
Oct 23	@MIL	W 132-125	+1.5	W +8.5	241.5	O 257
Oct 24	vsWSH	L 120-124	-1.5	L −5.5	244.5	U 244
Oct 26	@BOS	L 99-134	+14.5	L −20.5	233.5	U 233
Oct 28	vsNY	L 127-133	+7.5	W +1.5	233.5	O 260
Oct 30	@BOS	L 111-125	+14.5	W +0.5	236.5	U 236

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

TOR

L 92-135

−32.5

MIL

W 132-125

+8.5

WSH

L 120-124

−5.5

BOS

L 99-134

−20.5

L 127-133

+1.5

BOS

L 111-125

+0.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg −8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

TOR

L 92-135

−10.5

MIL

W 132-125

+15.5

WSH

L 120-124

−0.5

BOS

L 99-134

−0.5

L 127-133

+26.5

BOS

L 111-125

−0.5

over 2under 4avg +5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: Kings 1, Bulls 1, even 3

KingsBetterBulls

G D. Acuff26.3 pts · 3.7 reb · 6.3 ast Score 4

CHIBig

G N. Powell20.7 pts · 2.7 reb · 2 ast Score 71

F D. Sabonis16 pts · 15.8 reb · 7.3 ast Score 26

Even

G J. Giddey8.5 pts · 5.3 reb · 7.5 ast Score 29

F D. Hunter14 pts · 5 reb · 1 ast Score 38

SACSmall

F C. Wilson21.2 pts · 6.7 reb · 2.5 ast Score 6

F P. Achiuwa12.5 pts · 6 reb · 1 ast Score 7

Even

F M. Buzelis14.5 pts · 4.5 reb · 1.8 ast Score 4

F L. Black7.1 pts · 5 reb · 1.5 ast Score 13

Even

F P. Williams7 pts · 3 reb · 1.5 ast Score 19

KingsBetterBulls

SAC offense27th of 30 · -3.0

Even

CHI defense30th of 30 · -9.4

SAC defense29th of 30 · -7.9

CHIBig

CHI offense12th of 30 · +1.2

Backcourt-13.7 · 1 player

CHIBig

Backcourt+5.1 · 2 players

Frontcourt-18.6 · 4 players

SACBig

Frontcourt-24.0 · 3 players

Bench-13.2 · 5 players

CHIBig

Bench-6.9 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestSAC betterCHI betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Kings

Guards

D. Acuff37 minE. Sharp18 minD. Plowden14 minM. Monk12 minN. Clifford8 minA. FlaglerNew

Forwards

D. Sabonis37 minD. Hunter29 minP. Achiuwa29 minL. Black29 minJ. Mogbo17 minA. Karaban10 min

Out

Z. LaVineDay-To-DayK. MurrayOut

Bulls

Guards

N. Powell30 minJ. Giddey27 minT. Jones18 minB. Hield14 minJ. Hawkins14 minD. Swain12 min

Forwards

C. Wilson34 minM. Buzelis25 minP. Williams21 minL. Miller19 minZ. Collins18 minI. Okoro18 min

Out

J. SmithDay-To-DayT. AwakaDay-To-Day

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

SAC109.3 #22

CHI113.5 #16

Points per possession

SAC1.03 #28

CHI1.04 #26

Pace (possessions)

SAC106.0 #6

CHI109.8 #1

Shooting

Effective FG%

SAC51.0 #23

CHI48.2 #30

3-point %

SAC30.4 #27

CHI28.1 #30

3-point attempt rate

SAC38.0 #27

CHI47.9 #4

Free throw rate

SAC26.4 #20

CHI38.3 #1

Possessions

Turnover rate

SAC15.9 #19

CHI16.2 #20

Offensive rebound rate

SAC22.9 #28

CHI29.2 #9

Assists per game

SAC24.5 #23

CHI24.3 #25

Defense

Points allowed

SAC128.3 #29

CHI129.3 #30

Points allowed per possession

SAC1.21 #29

CHI1.17 #27

Opponent effective FG%

SAC60.4 #30

CHI56.0 #26

Opponent 3-point %

SAC39.2 #27

CHI39.3 #28

Turnovers forced

SAC14.6 #22

CHI14.7 #21

Defensive rebound rate

SAC73.7 #12

CHI69.8 #24

Steals per game

SAC8.0 #21

CHI8.7 #17

Blocks per game

SAC2.3 #30

CHI5.0 #12

SAC		CHI
Scoring
109.3 #22	Points per game	113.5 #16
1.03 #28	Points per possession	1.04 #26
106.0 #6	Pace (possessions)	109.8 #1
Shooting
51.0 #23	Effective FG%	48.2 #30
30.4 #27	3-point %	28.1 #30
38.0 #27	3-point attempt rate	47.9 #4
26.4 #20	Free throw rate	38.3 #1
Possessions
15.9 #19	Turnover rate	16.2 #20
22.9 #28	Offensive rebound rate	29.2 #9
24.5 #23	Assists per game	24.3 #25
Defense
128.3 #29	Points allowed	129.3 #30
1.21 #29	Points allowed per possession	1.17 #27
60.4 #30	Opponent effective FG%	56.0 #26
39.2 #27	Opponent 3-point %	39.3 #28
14.6 #22	Turnovers forced	14.7 #21
73.7 #12	Defensive rebound rate	69.8 #24
8.0 #21	Steals per game	8.7 #17
2.3 #30	Blocks per game	5.0 #12

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Kings

0-6 overall · 0-6 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Grizzlies105–136
L@ Pelicans120–132
L@ Spurs103–130
Lvs Grizzlies112–123
Lvs Trail Blazers120–128

A week or more of rest.

Bulls

1-5 overall · 1-5 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Celtics111–125
Lvs Knicks127–133
L@ Celtics99–134
Lvs Wizards120–124
W@ Bucks132–125

A week or more of rest.

Kings @ Bulls

What could decide it: CHI has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Kings

Bulls

The starting fives are even

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Kings

Bulls