Atlanta Hawks at Sacramento Kings: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Mar 24, 10:00 PM ETGolden 1 Center · at Kings

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Hawks and Kings
ATL	This season	SAC
3-4	Record	0-6
3-4	ATS	1-5
4-3	O/U	5-1

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects ATL 123–113 · win probability ATL 76%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 235.9

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: ATL has more of the edges

ATL 5, SAC 2 · 2026-27 so far

ATLBig

ATL offense vs SAC defense

Offense 7th of 30 against a defense 29th, on the model’s ratings

ATLBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: ATL 13.8%, SAC 15.9%. Forced: ATL 18.3%, SAC 14.6%

ATLBig

Three-pointers

ATL hits 32.8% and allows 31.9%; SAC hits 30.4% and allows 39.2%. Threes are 44.7% and 38.0% of their shots

ATLBig

SAC offense vs ATL defense

Offense 27th of 30 against a defense 18th, on the model’s ratings

ATLSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: ATL 52.6 and allows 54.5; SAC 51.0 and allows 60.4

SACSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: ATL 23.4, SAC 26.4. Allowed: ATL 32.1, SAC 31.2

SACSmall

Home court

SAC at home. This season: SAC 0-2 at home, ATL 2-2 away

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: ATL 27.1%, SAC 22.9%. Defensive: ATL 70.9%, SAC 73.7%

Context

Schedule so far

ATL has played the 9th-hardest schedule, SAC the 8th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Context

Tempo

About 106 possessions: ATL plays 105.6 a game (7th fastest), SAC 106.0 (6th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Recent form

Last 5: ATL 1-4 ATS, margin -9.6; SAC 1-4 ATS, margin -17.8

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: ATL 100%, SAC 100%. Transfers in: ATL 0, SAC 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ATL LLLWL	3-4	43%	2-2	—
SAC WLLLL	1-5	17%	1-1	—

Venue/role: ATL away; SAC home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
ATL OOOUU	4-3	57%	3-4
SAC OOOOO	5-1	83%	0-6

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ATLlast 7	3-4 43%	3-4 43%	4-3 57%
SAClast 6	0-6 0%	1-5 17%	5-1 83%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Hawks

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 27	vs UTAH	W121–119LU
Mar 29	vs MIN	L116–138LO
Mar 31	vs LAC	L92–115LU

Kings

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 27	vs TOR	W123–115WO
Mar 29	vs DEN	L105–136LO
Mar 31	@ MIN	L103–117LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

ATL 7–3 SACATL leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · ATL has won the last 3 meetings · ATL 6-4 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 28, 2025-26	SAC 113 @ ATL 123	ATL -13.5	SAC W
Nov 12, 2025-26	ATL 133 @ SAC 100	SAC +4.5	ATL W
Nov 18, 2024-25	ATL 109 @ SAC 108	SAC -4.5	ATL W
Nov 1, 2024-25	SAC 123 @ ATL 115	ATL +6.5	SAC W
Jan 22, 2023-24	ATL 107 @ SAC 122	SAC -8.5	SAC W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Hawks

7 games played

Straight up

3-4

43% wins

Against the spread

3-4

43% covers · avg +0.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-3

57% overs · avg −2.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-443%

W W L L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-443%

W W L L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

4-357%

O U O O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@ORL	W 132-125	+2.5	W +9.5	233.5	O 257
Oct 23	@CHA	W 128-81	-2.5	W +44.5	226.5	U 209
Oct 24	vsHOU	L 114-121	+1.5	L −5.5	227.5	O 235
Oct 26	@HOU	L 110-120	+4.5	L −5.5	228.5	O 230
Oct 28	vsMIA	L 117-129	-2.5	L −14.5	243.5	O 246
Oct 29	vsCLE	W 114-111	-1.5	W +1.5	237.5	U 225
Oct 31	@NO	L 99-121	-5.5	L −27.5	239.5	U 220

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

ORL

W 132-125

+9.5

CHA

W 128-81

+44.5

HOU

L 114-121

−5.5

HOU

L 110-120

−5.5

MIA

L 117-129

−14.5

CLE

W 114-111

+1.5

L 99-121

−27.5

covered 3didn’t cover 4avg +0.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

ORL

W 132-125

+23.5

CHA

W 128-81

−17.5

HOU

L 114-121

+7.5

HOU

L 110-120

+1.5

MIA

L 117-129

+2.5

CLE

W 114-111

−12.5

L 99-121

−19.5

over 4under 3avg −2.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Kings

6 games played

Straight up

0-6

0% wins

Against the spread

1-5

17% covers · avg −10.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-1

83% overs · avg +6.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

0-60%

L L L L L L

6 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

1-517%

L W L L L L

4 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

5-183%

U O O O O O

5 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@LAC	L 96-121	+5.5	L −19.5	226.5	U 217
Oct 23	vsPOR	L 120-128	+9.5	W +1.5	231.5	O 248
Oct 25	vsMEM	L 112-123	+3.5	L −7.5	234.5	O 235
Oct 27	@SA	L 103-130	+19.5	L −7.5	232.5	O 233
Oct 29	@NO	L 120-132	+6.5	L −5.5	234.5	O 252
Oct 31	@MEM	L 105-136	+7.5	L −23.5	229.5	O 241

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

LAC

L 96-121

−19.5

POR

L 120-128

+1.5

MEM

L 112-123

−7.5

L 103-130

−7.5

L 120-132

−5.5

MEM

L 105-136

−23.5

covered 1didn’t cover 5avg −10.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

LAC

L 96-121

−9.5

POR

L 120-128

+16.5

MEM

L 112-123

+0.5

L 103-130

+0.5

L 120-132

+17.5

MEM

L 105-136

+11.5

over 5under 1avg +6.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Hawks has the better starters

Position by position: Hawks 5, Kings 0, even 0

HawksBetterKings

G N. Alexander-Walker19.3 pts · 3.1 reb · 2.6 ast Score 67

ATLBig

G D. Acuff26.3 pts · 3.7 reb · 6.3 ast Score 4

G D. Daniels10.3 pts · 5 reb · 4.1 ast Score 87

ATLBig

F D. Sabonis16 pts · 15.8 reb · 7.3 ast Score 26

G C. McCollum14.4 pts · 1.9 reb · 2.9 ast Score 59

ATLSmall

F D. Hunter14 pts · 5 reb · 1 ast Score 38

G A. Wiggins14.7 pts · 3.7 reb · 1.9 ast Score 78

ATLBig

F P. Achiuwa12.5 pts · 6 reb · 1 ast Score 7

F O. Okongwu11.9 pts · 7.1 reb · 2.6 ast Score 30

ATLSmall

F L. Black7.1 pts · 5 reb · 1.5 ast Score 13

HawksBetterKings

ATL offense7th of 30 · +2.5

ATLBig

SAC defense29th of 30 · -7.9

ATL defense18th of 30 · -0.6

ATLSmall

SAC offense27th of 30 · -3.0

Backcourt+27.7 · 4 players

ATLBig

Backcourt-13.7 · 1 player

Frontcourt-1.3 · 1 player

ATLBig

Frontcourt-18.6 · 4 players

Bench-4.0 · 5 players

ATLBig

Bench-13.2 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestATL betterSAC betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Hawks

Guards

N. Alexander-Walker30 minD. Daniels29 minC. McCollum26 minA. Wiggins26 minL. Dort24 min

Forwards

O. Okongwu28 minC. Kispert18 minD. Finney-Smith16 minA. Newell11 minZ. Ejiofor5 min

Out

J. LandaleOutJ. JohnsonDay-To-DayK. FlemingsSuspension

Kings

Guards

D. Acuff37 minE. Sharp18 minD. Plowden14 minM. Monk12 minN. Clifford8 minA. FlaglerNew

Forwards

D. Sabonis37 minD. Hunter29 minP. Achiuwa29 minL. Black29 minJ. Mogbo17 minA. Karaban10 min

Out

Z. LaVineDay-To-DayK. MurrayOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

ATL116.3 #13

SAC109.3 #22

Points per possession

ATL1.10 #16

SAC1.03 #28

Pace (possessions)

ATL105.6 #7

SAC106.0 #6

Shooting

Effective FG%

ATL52.6 #19

SAC51.0 #23

3-point %

ATL32.8 #22

SAC30.4 #27

3-point attempt rate

ATL44.7 #11

SAC38.0 #27

Free throw rate

ATL23.4 #26

SAC26.4 #20

Possessions

Turnover rate

ATL13.8 #4

SAC15.9 #19

Offensive rebound rate

ATL27.1 #18

SAC22.9 #28

Assists per game

ATL30.7 #1

SAC24.5 #23

Defense

Points allowed

ATL115.4 #19

SAC128.3 #29

Points allowed per possession

ATL1.10 #17

SAC1.21 #29

Opponent effective FG%

ATL54.5 #22

SAC60.4 #30

Opponent 3-point %

ATL31.9 #7

SAC39.2 #27

Turnovers forced

ATL18.3 #2

SAC14.6 #22

Defensive rebound rate

ATL70.9 #19

SAC73.7 #12

Steals per game

ATL9.4 #8

SAC8.0 #21

Blocks per game

ATL3.7 #29

SAC2.3 #30

ATL		SAC
Scoring
116.3 #13	Points per game	109.3 #22
1.10 #16	Points per possession	1.03 #28
105.6 #7	Pace (possessions)	106.0 #6
Shooting
52.6 #19	Effective FG%	51.0 #23
32.8 #22	3-point %	30.4 #27
44.7 #11	3-point attempt rate	38.0 #27
23.4 #26	Free throw rate	26.4 #20
Possessions
13.8 #4	Turnover rate	15.9 #19
27.1 #18	Offensive rebound rate	22.9 #28
30.7 #1	Assists per game	24.5 #23
Defense
115.4 #19	Points allowed	128.3 #29
1.10 #17	Points allowed per possession	1.21 #29
54.5 #22	Opponent effective FG%	60.4 #30
31.9 #7	Opponent 3-point %	39.2 #27
18.3 #2	Turnovers forced	14.6 #22
70.9 #19	Defensive rebound rate	73.7 #12
9.4 #8	Steals per game	8.0 #21
3.7 #29	Blocks per game	2.3 #30

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Hawks

3-4 overall · 3-1 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Pelicans99–121
Wvs Cavaliers114–111
Lvs Heat117–129
L@ Rockets110–120
Lvs Rockets114–121

A week or more of rest.

Kings

0-6 overall · 0-6 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Grizzlies105–136
L@ Pelicans120–132
L@ Spurs103–130
Lvs Grizzlies112–123
Lvs Trail Blazers120–128

A week or more of rest.

Hawks @ Kings

What could decide it: ATL has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Hawks

Kings

Hawks has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Hawks

Kings