Milwaukee Bucks at LA Clippers: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Mar 24, 10:30 PM ETIntuit Dome · at Clippers

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Bucks and Clippers
MIL	This season	LAC
1-5	Record	1-5
2-4	ATS	3-3
5-1	O/U	3-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects LAC 119–109 · win probability LAC 76%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 228.1

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: LAC has more of the edges

MIL 1, LAC 4 · 2026-27 so far

LACBig

MIL offense vs LAC defense

Offense 26th of 30 against a defense 12th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

MIL has played the 23rd-hardest schedule, LAC the 10th. A record against a soft schedule means less

MILBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: MIL 29.7%, LAC 26.5%. Defensive: MIL 74.2%, LAC 70.9%

Context

Tempo

About 104 possessions: MIL plays 106.2 a game (4th fastest), LAC 101.7 (23rd). Faster games mean more points

LACBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: MIL 23.9, LAC 28.0. Allowed: MIL 29.7, LAC 24.7

LACSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: MIL 15.8%, LAC 20.4%. Forced: MIL 12.2%, LAC 17.0%

LACSmall

Home court

LAC at home. This season: LAC 1-1 at home, MIL 0-2 away

Even

Three-pointers

MIL hits 33.9% and allows 34.9%; LAC hits 38.6% and allows 38.2%. Threes are 45.9% and 42.3% of their shots

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: MIL 52.0 and allows 55.4; LAC 52.9 and allows 56.9

Even

LAC offense vs MIL defense

Offense 28th of 30 against a defense 28th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Recent form

Last 5: MIL 2-3 ATS, margin -13.4; LAC 2-3 ATS, margin -13.8

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: MIL 100%, LAC 100%. Transfers in: MIL 0, LAC 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MIL LWWLL	2-4	33%	1-1	—
LAC WWLLL	3-3	50%	1-1	—

Venue/role: MIL away; LAC home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
MIL OOUOO	5-1	83%	1-5
LAC OUUOO	3-3	50%	1-5

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MILlast 6	1-5 17%	2-4 33%	5-1 83%
LAClast 6	1-5 17%	3-3 50%	3-3 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Bucks

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 26	@ PHX	W108–105WU
Mar 27	@ POR	L99–130LO
Mar 29	vs DAL	W123–99WU

Clippers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 26	@ OKC	L101–108WU
Mar 27	@ CHI	W119–108LU
Mar 29	@ DET	W98–92WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

MIL 6–4 LACMIL leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · LAC has won the last 2 meetings · MIL 6-4 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 29, 2025-26	LAC 127 @ MIL 113	MIL +17.5	MIL W
Mar 23, 2025-26	MIL 96 @ LAC 129	LAC -13.5	LAC W
Feb 20, 2024-25	LAC 110 @ MIL 116	MIL +1.5	MIL W
Jan 25, 2024-25	MIL 117 @ LAC 127	LAC -3.5	LAC W
Mar 10, 2023-24	MIL 124 @ LAC 117	LAC +6.5	MIL W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Bucks

6 games played

Straight up

1-5

17% wins

Against the spread

2-4

33% covers · avg −7.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-1

83% overs · avg +3.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-517%

L L L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-433%

L L W W L L

2 straight misses ATS2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

5-183%

O O O U O O

2 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@WSH	L 116-128	+4.5	L −7.5	239.5	O 244
Oct 23	vsCHI	L 125-132	-1.5	L −8.5	241.5	O 257
Oct 24	@PHI	L 116-127	+12.5	W +1.5	234.5	O 243
Oct 26	vsIND	W 110-102	+3.5	W +11.5	239.5	U 212
Oct 28	vsHOU	L 100-132	+8.5	L −23.5	226.5	O 232
Oct 31	vsCLE	L 111-136	+8.5	L −16.5	234.5	O 247

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

WSH

L 116-128

−7.5

CHI

L 125-132

−8.5

PHI

L 116-127

+1.5

IND

W 110-102

+11.5

HOU

L 100-132

−23.5

CLE

L 111-136

−16.5

covered 2didn’t cover 4avg −7.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

WSH

L 116-128

+4.5

CHI

L 125-132

+15.5

PHI

L 116-127

+8.5

IND

W 110-102

−27.5

HOU

L 100-132

+5.5

CLE

L 111-136

+12.5

over 5under 1avg +3.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Clippers

6 games played

Straight up

1-5

17% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg −3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg −3.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-517%

W L L L L L

5 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

W W W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-350%

U O U U O O

2 straight overs2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsSAC	W 121-96	-5.5	W +19.5	226.5	U 217
Oct 23	@LAL	L 117-125	+8.5	W +0.5	225.5	O 242
Oct 25	@OKC	L 101-108	+16.5	W +9.5	223.5	U 209
Oct 28	vsLAL	L 87-103	-1.5	L −17.5	224.5	U 190
Oct 30	@MIN	L 101-127	+6.5	L −19.5	222.5	O 228
Nov 1	@GS	L 112-124	+1.5	L −10.5	220.5	O 236

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SAC

W 121-96

+19.5

LAL

L 117-125

+0.5

OKC

L 101-108

+9.5

LAL

L 87-103

−17.5

MIN

L 101-127

−19.5

L 112-124

−10.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg −3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SAC

W 121-96

−9.5

LAL

L 117-125

+16.5

OKC

L 101-108

−14.5

LAL

L 87-103

−34.5

MIN

L 101-127

+5.5

L 112-124

+15.5

over 3under 3avg −3.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Clippers has the better starters

Position by position: Bucks 2, Clippers 3, even 0

BucksBetterClippers

G T. Herro22 pts · 4.8 reb · 4.2 ast Score 6

LACSmall

G D. Garland20.8 pts · 1.3 reb · 6.3 ast Score 27

G R. Rollins11.2 pts · 4.3 reb · 4.7 ast Score 2

LACSmall

G K. Dunn8.5 pts · 3.8 reb · 5.3 ast Score 25

F J. Jaquez16.2 pts · 7.2 reb · 3 ast Score 51

MILSmall

G K. Sanders8.5 pts · 3 reb · 2 ast Score 31

F K. Kuzma11.3 pts · 7.2 reb · 2.8 ast Score 31

LACBig

F R. Hachimura13.4 pts · 6 reb · 0.6 ast Score 83

C M. Turner7.2 pts · 5.2 reb · 2.2 ast Score 56

MILBig

F I. Jackson8 pts · 6.2 reb · 2.3 ast Score 8

BucksBetterClippers

MIL offense26th of 30 · -2.9

LACBig

LAC defense12th of 30 · +1.7

MIL defense28th of 30 · -6.0

Even

LAC offense28th of 30 · -3.5

Backcourt-20.2 · 2 players

LACBig

Backcourt-5.9 · 3 players

Frontcourt+5.0 · 3 players

MILSmall

Frontcourt+3.6 · 2 players

Bench-0.7 · 5 players

LACBig

Bench+3.5 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestMIL betterLAC betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Bucks

Guards

T. Herro30 minR. Rollins26 minK. Porter33 minK. Jakucionis23 minG. Trent21 minA. Green19 min

Forwards

J. Jaquez28 minK. Kuzma27 minN. Ament16 minO. Dieng12 minB. Markovic5 min

Centers

M. Turner26 minJ. Sims20 minK. Ware20 min

Clippers

Guards

D. Garland33 minK. Dunn30 minK. Sanders23 minK. Wagler25 minJ. Pickett16 minG. Dick14 min

Forwards

R. Hachimura30 minI. Jackson22 minB. Miller8 minN. Martinelli5 min

Centers

B. Lopez22 min

Out

D. JonesDay-To-Day

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

MIL113.0 #17

LAC106.5 #28

Points per possession

MIL1.07 #20

LAC1.04 #27

Pace (possessions)

MIL106.2 #4

LAC101.7 #23

Shooting

Effective FG%

MIL52.0 #21

LAC52.9 #18

3-point %

MIL33.9 #21

LAC38.6 #5

3-point attempt rate

MIL45.9 #8

LAC42.3 #17

Free throw rate

MIL23.9 #25

LAC28.0 #17

Possessions

Turnover rate

MIL15.8 #18

LAC20.4 #30

Offensive rebound rate

MIL29.7 #8

LAC26.5 #21

Assists per game

MIL26.0 #20

LAC24.3 #26

Defense

Points allowed

MIL126.2 #28

LAC113.8 #15

Points allowed per possession

MIL1.18 #28

LAC1.13 #22

Opponent effective FG%

MIL55.4 #24

LAC56.9 #28

Opponent 3-point %

MIL34.9 #14

LAC38.2 #26

Turnovers forced

MIL12.2 #30

LAC17.0 #8

Defensive rebound rate

MIL74.2 #10

LAC70.9 #20

Steals per game

MIL5.7 #30

LAC11.3 #3

Blocks per game

MIL4.0 #27

LAC4.2 #22

MIL		LAC
Scoring
113.0 #17	Points per game	106.5 #28
1.07 #20	Points per possession	1.04 #27
106.2 #4	Pace (possessions)	101.7 #23
Shooting
52.0 #21	Effective FG%	52.9 #18
33.9 #21	3-point %	38.6 #5
45.9 #8	3-point attempt rate	42.3 #17
23.9 #25	Free throw rate	28.0 #17
Possessions
15.8 #18	Turnover rate	20.4 #30
29.7 #8	Offensive rebound rate	26.5 #21
26.0 #20	Assists per game	24.3 #26
Defense
126.2 #28	Points allowed	113.8 #15
1.18 #28	Points allowed per possession	1.13 #22
55.4 #24	Opponent effective FG%	56.9 #28
34.9 #14	Opponent 3-point %	38.2 #26
12.2 #30	Turnovers forced	17.0 #8
74.2 #10	Defensive rebound rate	70.9 #20
5.7 #30	Steals per game	11.3 #3
4.0 #27	Blocks per game	4.2 #22

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Bucks

1-5 overall · 1-4 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs Cavaliers111–136
Lvs Rockets100–132
Wvs Pacers110–102
L@ 76ers116–127
Lvs Bulls125–132

A week or more of rest.

Clippers

1-5 overall · 1-5 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Warriors112–124
L@ Timberwolves101–127
Lvs Lakers87–103
L@ Thunder101–108
L@ Lakers117–125

A week or more of rest.

Bucks @ Clippers

What could decide it: LAC has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Bucks

Clippers

Clippers has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Bucks

Clippers