Oklahoma City Thunder at Memphis Grizzlies: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Mar 20, 8:00 PM ETFedExForum · at Grizzlies · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Thunder and Grizzlies
OKC	This season	MEM
4-2	Record	6-0
3-3	ATS	6-0
1-5	O/U	2-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects OKC 114–112 · win probability OKC 56%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 225.0

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: MEM has more of the edges

OKC 3, MEM 6 · 2026-27 so far

Context

Schedule so far

OKC has played the 5th-hardest schedule, MEM the 30th. A record against a soft schedule means less

MEMBig

Three-pointers

OKC hits 30.9% and allows 35.3%; MEM hits 41.7% and allows 30.0%. Threes are 35.8% and 42.1% of their shots

MEMBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: OKC 49.5 and allows 51.0; MEM 55.9 and allows 49.2

MEMBig

Recent form

Last 5: OKC 2-3 ATS, margin -3.0; MEM 5-0 ATS, margin +14.2

OKCSmall

MEM offense vs OKC defense

Offense 11th of 30 against a defense 2nd, on the model’s ratings

MEMSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: OKC 28.5%, MEM 30.6%. Defensive: OKC 71.4%, MEM 75.0%

Context

Tempo

About 102 possessions: OKC plays 101.1 a game (27th fastest), MEM 103.6 (13th). Faster games mean more points

OKCSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: OKC 14.5%, MEM 15.4%. Forced: OKC 15.8%, MEM 15.7%

OKCSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: OKC 21.8, MEM 25.3. Allowed: OKC 23.4, MEM 31.4

MEMSmall

OKC offense vs MEM defense

Offense 18th of 30 against a defense 13th, on the model’s ratings

MEMSmall

Home court

MEM at home. This season: MEM 2-0 at home, OKC 1-2 away

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: OKC 100%, MEM 100%. Transfers in: OKC 0, MEM 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
OKC WLWLL	3-3	50%	1-2	—
MEM WWWWW	6-0	100%	2-0	—

Venue/role: OKC away; MEM home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
OKC UUOUU	1-5	17%	4-2
MEM UOUUO	2-4	33%	6-0

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
OKClast 6	4-2 67%	3-3 50%	1-5 17%
MEMlast 6	6-0 100%	6-0 100%	2-4 33%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Thunder

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 23	@ PHX	W125–114WO
Mar 24	@ PHX	W125–114WO
Mar 26	vs LAC	W108–101LU

Grizzlies

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 22	vs CHA	L101–124LU
Mar 24	@ IND	W125–106WU
Mar 25	vs CHI	W125–124WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 21 since 2021-22

OKC 17–4 MEMOKC leads · 21 games since 2021-22 · OKC has won the last 16 meetings · OKC 14-7 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Jan 9, 2025-26	OKC 117 @ MEM 116	MEM +5.5	MEM W
Dec 22, 2025-26	MEM 103 @ OKC 119	OKC -15.5	OKC W
Nov 9, 2025-26	OKC 114 @ MEM 100	MEM +10.5	OKC W
Apr 26, 2024-25	OKC 117 @ MEM 115	MEM +15.5	MEM W
Apr 24, 2024-25	OKC 114 @ MEM 108	MEM +9.5	MEM W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Thunder

6 games played

Straight up

4-2

67% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg −6.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-5

17% overs · avg −12.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-267%

W W W W L L

2 straight losses2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

W W L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

1-517%

U U U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 20	@SA	W 116-104	-1.5	W +10.5	229.5	U 220
Oct 22	vsDEN	W 96-84	-7.5	W +4.5	236.5	U 180
Oct 25	vsLAC	W 108-101	-16.5	L −9.5	223.5	U 209
Oct 26	vsPHX	W 125-114	-8.5	W +2.5	221.5	O 239
Oct 28	@DAL	L 96-120	-4.5	L −28.5	227.5	U 216
Oct 31	@HOU	L 98-119	+2.5	L −18.5	219.5	U 217

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 116-104

+10.5

DEN

W 96-84

+4.5

LAC

W 108-101

−9.5

PHX

W 125-114

+2.5

DAL

L 96-120

−28.5

HOU

L 98-119

−18.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg −6.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 116-104

−9.5

DEN

W 96-84

−56.5

LAC

W 108-101

−14.5

PHX

W 125-114

+17.5

DAL

L 96-120

−11.5

HOU

L 98-119

−2.5

over 1under 5avg −12.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Grizzlies

6 games played

Straight up

6-0

100% wins

Against the spread

6-0

100% covers · avg +14.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg −8.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

6-0100%

W W W W W W

6 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

6-0100%

W W W W W W

6 straight covers4 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-433%

U U O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsUTAH	W 123-103	-1.5	W +18.5	240.5	U 226
Oct 23	@GS	W 111-108	+4.5	W +7.5	236.5	U 219
Oct 25	@SAC	W 123-112	-3.5	W +7.5	234.5	O 235
Oct 26	@UTAH	W 110-105	-1.5	W +3.5	237.5	U 215
Oct 29	@POR	W 124-103	+7.5	W +28.5	233.5	U 227
Oct 31	vsSAC	W 136-105	-7.5	W +23.5	229.5	O 241

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UTAH

W 123-103

+18.5

W 111-108

+7.5

SAC

W 123-112

+7.5

UTAH

W 110-105

+3.5

POR

W 124-103

+28.5

SAC

W 136-105

+23.5

covered 6didn’t cover 0avg +14.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UTAH

W 123-103

−14.5

W 111-108

−17.5

SAC

W 123-112

+0.5

UTAH

W 110-105

−22.5

POR

W 124-103

−6.5

SAC

W 136-105

+11.5

over 2under 4avg −8.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Grizzlies has the better starters

Position by position: Thunder 0, Grizzlies 2, even 3

ThunderBetterGrizzlies

G S. Gilgeous-Alexander26 pts · 4.5 reb · 3.3 ast Score 88

Even

G T. Jerome25.8 pts · 3.2 reb · 5.6 ast Score 97

G A. Mitchell16.5 pts · 3.3 reb · 3.8 ast Score 99

Even

F C. Boozer17.7 pts · 10.5 reb · 5.7 ast Score 87

G J. McCain10.8 pts · 2.3 reb · 2.2 ast Score 8

MEMSmall

F C. Coward13 pts · 8.6 reb · 2.6 ast Score 33

G K. Williams5 pts · 3.5 reb · 0.7 ast Score 40

MEMBig

F J. Wells12.2 pts · 3.3 reb · 1 ast Score 85

C I. Hartenstein9.5 pts · 9.2 reb · 2 ast Score 88

Even

C Z. Edey7 pts · 7 reb · 1 ast Score 92

ThunderBetterGrizzlies

OKC offense18th of 30 · -1.1

MEMSmall

MEM defense13th of 30 · +1.1

OKC defense2nd of 30 · +6.2

OKCSmall

MEM offense11th of 30 · +1.3

Backcourt+24.2 · 4 players

OKCBig

Backcourt+16.5 · 1 player

Frontcourt+12.0 · 1 player

MEMBig

Frontcourt+29.5 · 4 players

Bench-4.1 · 5 players

OKCBig

Bench-18.8 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestOKC betterMEM betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Thunder

Guards

S. Gilgeous-Alexander33 minA. Mitchell26 minJ. McCain25 minK. Williams14 minJ. Dix18 minB. Stirtz16 min

Forwards

J. Williams18 minB. Barnhizer9 min

Centers

I. Hartenstein24 minA. Mara18 min

Out

A. CarusoOutC. HolmgrenOutJ. WilliamsOutC. WallaceOut

Grizzlies

Guards

T. Jerome30 minJ. Mashack22 minJ. Small21 minC. Spencer19 minW. Clayton11 min

Forwards

C. Boozer31 minC. Coward28 minJ. Wells27 minJ. Grant24 minT. Hendricks19 minO. Prosper19 min

Centers

Z. Edey20 minI. Stewart18 minC. Cooper3 min

Out

S. PippenDay-To-DayQ. PostDay-To-Day

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

OKC106.5 #29

MEM121.2 #1

Points per possession

OKC1.05 #23

MEM1.16 #4

Pace (possessions)

OKC101.1 #27

MEM103.6 #13

Shooting

Effective FG%

OKC49.5 #28

MEM55.9 #5

3-point %

OKC30.9 #26

MEM41.7 #1

3-point attempt rate

OKC35.8 #29

MEM42.1 #19

Free throw rate

OKC21.8 #28

MEM25.3 #22

Possessions

Turnover rate

OKC14.5 #7

MEM15.4 #16

Offensive rebound rate

OKC28.5 #10

MEM30.6 #5

Assists per game

OKC21.7 #29

MEM27.0 #13

Defense

Points allowed

OKC107.0 #5

MEM106.0 #3

Points allowed per possession

OKC1.06 #7

MEM1.03 #2

Opponent effective FG%

OKC51.0 #6

MEM49.2 #3

Opponent 3-point %

OKC35.3 #17

MEM30.0 #3

Turnovers forced

OKC15.8 #13

MEM15.7 #15

Defensive rebound rate

OKC71.4 #18

MEM75.0 #9

Steals per game

OKC8.3 #20

MEM6.3 #28

Blocks per game

OKC6.3 #7

MEM5.2 #11

OKC		MEM
Scoring
106.5 #29	Points per game	121.2 #1
1.05 #23	Points per possession	1.16 #4
101.1 #27	Pace (possessions)	103.6 #13
Shooting
49.5 #28	Effective FG%	55.9 #5
30.9 #26	3-point %	41.7 #1
35.8 #29	3-point attempt rate	42.1 #19
21.8 #28	Free throw rate	25.3 #22
Possessions
14.5 #7	Turnover rate	15.4 #16
28.5 #10	Offensive rebound rate	30.6 #5
21.7 #29	Assists per game	27.0 #13
Defense
107.0 #5	Points allowed	106.0 #3
1.06 #7	Points allowed per possession	1.03 #2
51.0 #6	Opponent effective FG%	49.2 #3
35.3 #17	Opponent 3-point %	30.0 #3
15.8 #13	Turnovers forced	15.7 #15
71.4 #18	Defensive rebound rate	75.0 #9
8.3 #20	Steals per game	6.3 #28
6.3 #7	Blocks per game	5.2 #11

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Thunder

4-2 overall · 4-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Rockets98–119
L@ Mavericks96–120
Wvs Suns125–114
Wvs Clippers108–101
Wvs Nuggets96–84

A week or more of rest.

Grizzlies

6-0 overall · 6-0 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Kings136–105
W@ Trail Blazers124–103
W@ Jazz110–105
W@ Kings123–112
W@ Warriors111–108

A week or more of rest.

Thunder @ Grizzlies

What could decide it: MEM has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Thunder

Grizzlies

Grizzlies has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Thunder

Grizzlies